My opinions are rooted in what I have seen in my career. I think the complexity of our fire control system in California paralyses us, making us think every solution has to be as complex as our mutual aid system. Your agency tells you to keep 95% of all fires under 10 acres, even though we have the resources and information make much more nuanced decisions. To borrow your phrase, a program of full suppression “oversimplifies the magnitude of the problem and attempts to reduce it to some simple solution”.
The VMP program was designed to help ranchers burn brush to improve their pasture conditions. It was never meant to be a fire-use program, and we muddy the waters when we cross the two terms. That said, the idea we can use in-season wildfire to achieve resource benefits is very much a reality.
I disagree with your premise that fires and the fire environment have precluded any large-scale fuels management in the past decade. It’s just in how you define ‘managing fuels’. I have worked on wildfires on the Klamath, Six Rivers, Shasta-T, Lassen, Plumas, Modoc, Tahoe, LP, and Mendocino NF that achieved MAJOR fuels reduction and forest health benefits DURING FIRE SEASON.
More than 70% of the acres burned in the 2015 Shasta-T lightning bust (175,000 acres+) and 2014 Happy Camp Complex (134,000 acres) were low or moderate severity. The 2008 Cub Fire cleaned up a roadless area in Deer Creek Canyon we would never have been able to get burned or thinned otherwise. Even the (SRA) Mendocino Complex, Carr, Camp, and King Fires had large areas of indirect attack where the burning operations had beneficial effects on thousands of acres of forests and fuels. We have a lot of leeway to get good work done with indirect tactics.
It is true too much high-severity fire can cause problems with weeds and type-conversion to annuals in some systems, and I’m definitely not saying we should let everything in the backcountry burn all the time, but we’ve got literally millions of acres of SRA in California where we could use more indirect attack or in-season prescribed fire. We shouldn’t let the complexity of the current system blind us to that. We are currently successful at suppressing fires under incredibly-challenging conditions. Think of what we could pull off in prescribed fire with the level of support we put into suppression! Imagine being able to use heavy airtankers and type 1 helicopters on prescribed burns. Change is possible. Don’t take no for an answer.