National Fire News

https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn

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Fire season is getting worse every year.

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Reminds me of 2002 albeit a month early. Here’s to hoping for an early monsoon…

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My purview is pretty limited (really only pay close attention to NorCal monthly-4 month outlooks over the off season), but it seems like this year every off season prediction there has been 180 from what ends up happening in the coming month. As an additional case in point, this one says NM in for a generally normal April, which this April has been anything but. We can only hope the trend continues and all the “Above Normal” on those maps doesn’t come to fruition, but you know what they say about ‘wish in one hand…’

I mean no ill will or disrespect to predictive service folks- they have a daunting and generally thankless task. But it makes me think that going forward, shoulder seasons are going to start to be a bigger x-factor for high intensity events, even if the duration of each event is limited. To put it into more esoteric terms, when climate starts acting like weather, that’s a general watch out all to itself…

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Honestly, it’s all right place, right time. Atmospheric conditions, slopes, recent precipitation…etc… with an ignition at the right time. And average is a different bar in different areas. I’m surprised CA even has an above average indicator any more, because it’s always going to burn, which is the average.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

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http://www.noaa.gov/news/wildfires-severe-weather-marked-april-2022

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Situation Report

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https://news.ucar.edu/132845/scientists-develop-method-seasonal-prediction-western-wildfires

https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn

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