Based on the modeling of two, three, maybe four hurricanes developing on the monsoon trough over the next 5 to 10 days we are going to have plenty of opportunity for thunderstorms. Ultimately my fear right now based on the forecasted track of the first two storms transporting heat and warm water through ekman transport… is that we could see something historic soon. Heat/wind/earth/flood etc. PDO- plus strong El Niño development is crazy.. lots of other interconnected things that are not forum worthy .
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RWF
Siskiyous, Yolla Bollys, Trinitys…
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From my reading( please confirm Anvilhead) , slower moving storms, with decent Pwats at 1.06.. so definitely a mixture of wet and dry storms. Good cape so good chance of strong downdrafts and outflows, especially if the storms have solid rain cores. The one great feature today that we have avoided thus far…heat on top of high dew points….
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Copy.. Good Pwat’s & Good CAPE! 
2 Labradors & their human woke up today cussing out the Wx! It only cooled to 78 and already going back up - 100% clear skies right now also! 
Gonna be on the road between SMF & RDD today so we’re expecting to see some active Wx one way or another…
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CNR staffing pattern for predicted weather (hot, dry, and breezy) starting tomorrow 8/6 0800
CNR-000012
O-1 Staff all CAL FIRE Reserve and Camp Type III Engines
O-2 Staff ECC & OCC with additional support as appropriate
O-3 Staff two Fire Center & CDCR Crews with STL 24hrs/day
O-4 Staff one qualified Division Group Supervisor w/vehicle (available for region response)
O-5 Staff Two Mt. Tam crews 24hrs a day W/STL
If the last week has been any indication on the receptiveness of fuels things are definitely ready to go.
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Cooler weather coming starting Thurs-Fri next week. At least 10 degrees cooler or more that will stick around for awhile. Can’t wait!
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Always get the winds associated with it as she breaks and the fuel has been curing. Also more people will be out with cooler temperatures.
Right at the point of change best time to be alert.
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That has been my observation too. When the lid is on and it’s hot, nothing too big happens. When the lid comes off and the air starts mixing and the fuel is cured and the yay-hoos come out, watch out.
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My observation is that it’s not going to happen this year. We’re going to be dealing with gnarly winter storms before you know it!
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Thermal belts are alive.
Walking from the confluence of the American River up to the top of the canyon early this morning gave me a beautiful example of a thermal belt in action.
At the bottom, my Kestrel showed a nice little inversion: 68°F with 60% RH.
Moving up the spur, about a third of the way up the canyon wall, I walked right into the belt. The change was noticeable even before looking at the Kestrel—the crickets were more active, the air felt like it was mixing, and conditions suddenly became much warmer and drier.
79°F and 25% RH.
Continuing toward the top, I eventually walked out of the belt. At the canyon rim, conditions had moderated again to 71°F and 51% RH.
Bottom: 68°F / 60% RH
Thermal belt: 79°F / 25% RH
Top: 71°F / 51% RH
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Observation or hope?
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An educated wish?
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Is that what you’re hoping for when the cooling trend begins? Facts are facts 
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Speaking of late next week..
" Will be monitoring very closely the abundant lightning signal/critical pattern for late next week/following weekend."
Edit on 08/10/26 @ 1833.
“T-storm threat increases Wed thru Thu w/across the Sierras & Far Eastside, likely into NE CA Thu. Nocturnal lightning threat Wed night into Thu morning remains a real possibility, with location forecast problematic** , most likely S & E of Sacramento. Activity would likely be hyrbid of dry/wet depending on track, timing, & intensity.”
Looking like High Risk Trigger (Lightning) still remains in the 7 day for later this week - see link above for current language and full report… 
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