The same one you’re refusing the accept. Positive vibes over here my friend. Enjoy the cool weather!!!
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Absent longer term macro alterations of the previously scheduled heat and drying, this welcome but brief interlude will provide a few days of potential respite from heat and elevated wildfire potential.
A day or two of heat and wind will evaporate the moisure and we’ll be back in trouble. I am unwilling to pretend otherwise. In Plumas County we were well on our way to extreme fire danger.
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Agree.. the fuels are still on a drying cycle. The precip in the forecast is not stratiform but more associated with orographic enhancement of the available moisture as this short wave moves through. Last week this was depicted as an inside slider with another north wind event but it took a little more over water path and deepened drawing in some additional moisture. Hard to tell if this will be a part of a large scale repeated pattern or more of a spring thing. It is not abnormal to have some cool weather as we finish the transition from spring to summer. The fuels continue to dry.. it is usually 45 days from last soaking rain until the grasses are fully cured. My expectation is another round of rapid snap back once the sun pops back out you will see rapid uptick in grass fires. Not really doom and gloom.. just the facts of living in a Mediterranean climate.
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Omega blocking occurring over the US so the ridge is right in the middle of the country. Forecast models are depicting going from well below average temperatures to above average temperatures in a span of about four days. Any light precipitation during this time of year is negated by the long days and fuels starting to go dormant for the season. The subtropical ridge over the middle of the country will be very strong for this time of year. It will likely de amplify but retrograde west. Typically, as the subtropical ridge builds in during this time of year we will be in a zonal flow, but again sea surface temperatures should be recovering so you should expect a shallow marine layer. Still expecting that big heat wave 6/29-7/8. Reminder not to look at the individual slice and assess the whole pie.
This is a good example of what I was talking about before. You have the cooler weather preventing beneficial fire for this time of year. Then, you have above average temperatures that will bring you back to where you were before. The difference is that you have elapsed time and you have a trend towards more extreme hot temperatures in the summertime but nothing has burned because of the constant back and forth. Just looking at it from a game theory perspective instead of doom: you have to logically conclude that if that trend continues it just leads to bigger and bigger fires occurring at the same time, competing for resources under more severe burning conditions…. rather than a spaced out more manageable situation. And the constant back-and-forth of temperature extremes cannot be good for the flora and fauna in general.
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Still raining this morning in Mariposa county.
@anvilhead has been dropping some of the best weather nuggets on this forum along with a select few others. I wouldn’t do anything to dissuade the insight that this individual has to share.. we can all learn by staying more like quiet coyote.
Interested to see how this summer continues to play out..
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To anvilhead & Norcal…any north winds behind this system that has been hanging around the last couple days. And as stated above I also appreciate your weather insight.
Just a hair over 1/4 of rain here in Sonora but I did fire up the woodstove last two nights.
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I hope all realize that I am not fear mongering, or putting out doom predictions like the media and many social media influencers do to generate revenue. I’m just looking at things from an escalation ladder and game theory perspective. Also, I combine the left brain and right brain to get the full picture and many science oriented people struggle with that. Reminder: we had almost entire cities burn a year and a half ago in January.
We got more rain than forecasted because the upper level low went further west and combined with the above average sea surface temperatures. There will be light offshore flow as the upper level low moves away. I think it is really important to enjoy the weather right now, I think based on historical archetypes the summer will be exceptionally hot for the United States.
Also will say that I understand people are struggling to make ends meet after several slow seasons, and I empathize with them.
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I have never interpreted anything from your posts that would represent those characteristics. If anything I would say some of us have requested more of a prediction from you that we could understand as it applies to what you’re information means for initial attack/ large incident potential.
Even then I would say what possibilities you have alluded to were not over the top and fear stricken. I would say speaking for myself it has been very reliable to heighten awareness in the time windows you have stated to be problematic.
I think the issue comes when lots of people post links to clickbait articles relating to elevated fire danger as a reference to what seems more like a warming trend. Especially when fire danger prior to cooler weather was not elevated or seasonally out of the large incident realm of possible.
Also if I’m being honest I dont need thoughts and prayers with my forecast. Not saying thats you.
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Agree with Anvilhead.. nothing too serious looks to be in the works in the next seven days. It looks to me like a slow return to “normal” temps. With that.. I would expect to see some low to mid 90’s by mid week in the CV.
The ridge that builds behind this cut off low is not really strong and the “Omega” block that is in place will be stubborn to move. If it retrogrades west.. then we come under the greater heights of that ridge. For now that does not look like it will happen in the next 7 days. The next real wrinkle seems to be another strong low moving into the PNW, but that is way out in fantasy land.
If we follow climatology, I would expect our “North Wind” season for at least NOPS to end the next two weeks or so. By mid-June we usually do not see very strong wind events. In fact I would say that we have seen relatively few offshore events this spring( similar to last spring).
It has been stated here before and it should not be forgotten how we are potentially entering into some murky water when it comes to long term forecasts. The sea surface temps off of CA and in parts of the Pacific will have profound effects on our weather this summer and fall. Once we pass the spring predictabity barrier in the next few weeks we will most likely be in “Strong El Niño” range. Trying to find analogs to this year is difficult and the allure of “cherry picking” data to support a theory is really easy to do. With that.. I would submit that if all of the parameters and indices come into alignment we may see some remarkable weather for California. That could include tropical remnants in an organized fashion making landfall in the state, to a lot of lightning, especially across the eastern and southern parts of the state and some early wetting rains this fall. This could all follow a hot summer with less marine influence and maybe less of a diurnal air flow each day…
I think we will all learn a lot over the next 18 months. School is in session…..
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Perhaps I should have have specified.. North Wind spring and early summer season is ending. Will return in late August.
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Some interesting weather in the near future…
The models want to build in a weak ridge this week. Some moderate to normal temps for the week. By Saturday they are advertising a change.. a deep trough may impact the PNW and drag into NW CA.
While not unheard of in the firs week of June, the wetting rain associated with it might be.
What is more significant is the advertised strength of the low and wind. Some possibly strong winds ahead and behind the front.
Too far out to grab onto any particular details.. but it does seem like we have not hit summer yet. Might need to hold off on mowing the grass for another week or so…
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