South Ops Weather-2020

National Forecast Map
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Pretty impressive if this ends up being accurate.

National Forecast Map
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It would appear that the D word is back in our active vocabulary. ABC News is reporting that the US Drought Monitor is designating the Central and Southern Sierra along with the adjacent areas of the Central Valley as being back into a moderate drought condition. Unless there is significant wet weather, it is highly likely that we will once again experience a very early commencement of fire season.

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I saw this today;

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Weather Watch
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National Forecast Map
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Appears decent rain coming to So Cal

Significant increase in Live Fuel Moisture:
https://www.fire.lacounty.gov/forestry-division/fire-weather-report/

SoCal Forecast
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Special Advisories
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sgx&wwa=all

  National Forecast Map

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Regional Forecast
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GOES West Imagery
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G17&sector=wus&band=AirMass&length=1

Monthly Outlook Potential

National Forecast Map
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Predicted Santa Ana wind speeds for late tonight and tomorrow.

30%20PM

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Regional Forecast

June Outlook

Regional Warnings
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sgx&wwa=all

National Forecast Map
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These temperatures will not verify as it’s essentially a 1 in 100,000 chance, but check out this ECMWF output for next week. There is growing model consensus for a prolonged, potentially dangerous heatwave across the San Joaquin Valley next week. I would expect temperatures to be in the 105-112 range at least.

Regional Forecast
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GOES West Imagery
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.php?sat=G17&sector=wus

June Outlook
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National Forecast Map
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https://www.weather.gov/hnx/

Regional Forecast
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GOES West Imagery
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.php?sat=G17&sector=wus

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National Forecast Map
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Strong storm moving over Sonora and this area of Sierra foothills.

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NAM-3KM model indicates some elevated convection across the Tehachapi’s and bleeding into the Antelope Valley this afternoon as a vorticity maximum swings over the area. The airmass here is pretty dry so expect if any cloud to ground lightning strikes a continued threat of fire starts.

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In fact, the storm prediction center has much of the area hashed for isolated dry lightning strikes for today.

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