Is Marie going to provide more greater swell for the area north of Point conception or will it just pass on by?
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Yes, it should produce a big southerly swell
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With the most recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing Marie recurving towards California again but as a remnant tropical depression, there is still a very small chance the storm recurves based on what happens tonight.
The storm has formed an inner core, and tonight it will be entering diurnal minimum with that formed inner coreā¦. which is the most favorable time for storms to increase in intensity. If the storm continues to deepen It will change the track of the storm with a northward bias. This is because when a storm gets deeper, its corresponding anticyclone splits the ridging around it and the storm wants to go poleward as it feels the influence of the upper level wind pattern. The problem with the models is they are assuming the storm is going to stay in the range of about 970 mbā¦. So even a 10 mb deviation over 48-72 hours has a big track implication.
The most likely scenario is the storm is going to stay away, far offshoreā¦. But it should still be monitored.
Also will add a little more and we will revisit next weekā¦ the little bend in the track at the end of Marieās life cycle is going to transport an immense amount of warm water up Baja along the coastal trapped Kelvin wave. Having a huge area of 28-30 degree water halfway up Baja makes me nervous.
(This is just the beginning of what would be that warm water transport, so it will be important to see 3 to 5 days after this what the SST looks like. HWRF likes to overdo the ocean temperatures by probably about 10% but still
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Hate to say it but thereās no point is trying to figure this one out. The models disagree and the predictions continue to change. Appreciate the efforts tho
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No, the multi model consensus bends the storm back to the right as an extra tropical cyclone. I have moved on from the storm itself and Iām highlighting the sea surface temperatures. This absolutely needs to be watched because almost every single year in September, when the jet stream angle changes we get a storm that goes into Sonora, Arizona, or New Mexico. Now imagine the same set up that happens every year but youāre including a large area of 28-30Ā° water that can support a category four storm all the way up to 29Ā° north. Thatās what we are watching now.
It is anticipated that the coastal trapped Kelvin wave will make it all the way potentially to San Francisco by the first week of October. This is an incredibly rare dynamic set up and as we get later into September there could be surface high-pressure building into the great basin at the same time. So even if we donāt get a tropical cycloneā¦. The offshore wind threat should be amplified by this phenomenon.
Additionally: there is a second coastal trapped Kelvin wave moving into the Cabo San Lucas area in the next few weeks. So you are layering warm water on top of another layer of warm water. The waves move north about 6 mph.
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Still, the majority of people on here appreciate this type of insight. Sorry you donāt!
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Always best to just ignore that guy, heās been banned before.
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Must have been short term suspension.
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Anvilhead:
Way out of my pay scale and understanding. Is this what you would call the multi model consensus? If this is way out in left field and complicates your education of us, please DM me and Iāll remove it. Iām still trying to read the background to begin to understand a sliver of a fire hose worth of meteorology.
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Yes, and like I said, the storm is going to stay offshore. What I mean by bend to the right is that the end of the track the models shifted back to the northā¦ and the context was warm water transport from the 90 degree angle versus the storm track. Sorry if thatās confusing I wasnāt literally meaning the storm was going to impact the landmassā¦ although there is still a very small chance
Also remember when reading a model chart including ensembles you have to preclude all of the model starting positions that are incorrect. So basically the 1/3 that start too far south from where the storm actually is right now should be discounted when reading a multi model track.
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Howās it lookin for my Cabo vaca on the 25th?
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You did a good job of translating into English, so I thought I might be tracking with you (no pun intended). Thereās always gonna be an outlier or three, but I can see the ābendā as well as a moderate consensus. Living in Flagstaff, the longer it tries to trend north the more interesting it āmightā be next week. We look forward to your updates and your thoughts.
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Thank you so much, I really appreciate it. I also wanted to add a very interesting nerdy tidbit. It is extremely rare for a storm to strengthen above 20Ā° N in this part of the Eastern Pacific (near 120Ā° W) Marie deepened to 967 MB on the latest update at 21Ā° north and Iām going to do a historical analog and find out if there have been any storms to have strengthened at this location in history. But what this shows is that even over 27-28 degree water at this latitude a storm of monstrous size like this that churns up a lot of water over a large area can sustain itself and even strengthenā¦ so this is breaking the meteorological āsealā of what we have seen before over this part of the Pacific Oceanā¦ and if we apply this to the waters just off the coast of Baja which are much warmer and have greater ocean heat content then we can think that a storm coming up that way will likely act the same way.
Iām going to shut it down for a while so as to not over-post here. Hope everyone has a safe Labor Day weekend.
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Please keep it rolling anvil , cant speak for everyone else , but i appreciate your weather knowledge and insite
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Keep rolling!
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Yes, keep it rolling.
Your knowledge when you were on Twitter before the GREAT PURGE and you walked away was a reason i had the app at the time. You can go from the deepest of meteorological ners speak, to as plain spoken in the same post.
Enjoy the ālast weekendā of summer.
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Not a heavy poster on here but always watching and really appreciate the your insight and knowledge of the weather and fire world . Thank You and please keep it coming.
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