Here is a more simplified version of the way I see things currently: Southern California is subtropical, but in the summer we are in a way 5-10 ocean degrees from being “tropical-light” in the bight. If ocean temperatures stay 5-10 degrees above normal into the summer it could feel outside in many areas that you would encounter a gator. Strong El Nino years tend to delay the onset of the monsoon and 4 corners high pressure heat dome, but the troughing pattern and high SST keeps the marine layer more shallow. Plus the offshore flow component that is accompanying each shortwave passage, it is a little different going into a strong El Nino vs already being in it.
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Thank you for confirming what i have suspected.
The fuels conditions are burning like its June not April(now May)
The San Diego Sportfishing fleet is already catching Pelagic type fish the last 2 weeks of April. That normally don’t show up till mid July/Aug in El Nino Years. The lack of temperature differences south of Point Conception and the inland valleys will all but shut off the afternoon sea breeze in places like Corona, San Gabriel, & Temecula. The end result, record setting heat, stagnate air, horrible air quality due to a lack of mixing. The delta breeze will be nonexistent leading to the northern Sacramento Valley having record setting temperatures.
Thank you for continuing to provide the updates and analysis you do!
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Red flag warning for the Westside hills down to the Kern county desert.
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