We live in a society where people expect that nothing will ever go wrong. If (inevitably) something does go wrong, we MUST find someone or something to blame. Things that used to be deemed “acts of God” are now pinned on some hapless person, whether a civilian or official.
Rekindles happen. We try our best to make sure they don’t, but they do happen and probably always will. And someone WILL be found upon whom we can place the blame. Glad I’m retired.
The second big problem is that the fire service (big generalization here) is so busy with non-essential BS, and our “leaders” so consumed with even less-essential CYA activities, that everyone is so worn out and distracted before the day even starts to do a complete job of anything. As I understand it, there is only one LAFD station in the Pallisades. I’m sure in the days following the first fire, they ran a bunch of calls, and logged a good number of hours of mandated diversity training. The Fire Chief can’t spend any $ on overtime to patrol, or for that matter up-staff for a wind event, because (I’m assuming) she’d been in the Mayor’s office recently, getting reamed because they’d already burned through the overtime budget covering behind guys off on months of “baby bonding” etc etc.
My point is that we live in a badly broken world, and we’re subject to badly broken people, from top to bottom. Things will always go bad. All you can do is do your best, and document everything. Never cut corners to please your boss, because your boss will be MIA when the finger pointing starts.
Something was bugging me regarding a YT video i’ve recently seen regarding comments made by officials regarding the status of Lachman Fire.. So, i asked GROK "What did the LAFD Fire Chief say about the Lauchman Fire in the days before Pallsades Fire began?
Here’s what GROK kicked back to me. One thing that really stands out to me in GROK reply is this comment; “Everett’s comments aimed to reassure the community that no lapses occurred, though federal investigators later confirmed the holdover embers were undetectable by standard methods at the time.”
“Undetectable” & “Standard Methods” are a bit of a head scratcher.
FROM GROK..
"Background on the Fires
The Lachman Fire was a small brush fire that ignited around 12:17 a.m. on January 1, 2025, near Skull Rock Trail in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles. It burned approximately 8 acres and was declared fully contained by the Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD) shortly after 4:30 a.m. the same day, with mop-up and patrol operations continuing for 36 hours afterward. However, embers smoldered underground in dense vegetation root structures, undetected, until high Santa Ana winds on January 7 reignited them, leading to the catastrophic Palisades Fire. That blaze killed 12 people, destroyed over 6,800 structures, and scorched 23,400 acres, making it one of the most destructive wildfires in Los Angeles history.
At the time, Kristin Crowley was the LAFD Fire Chief (she was later demoted in the aftermath). There are no publicly available direct statements from her or other LAFD leaders in the immediate days after the Lachman Fire (January 1–6, 2025) regarding ongoing monitoring or risks, as it was treated as a routine, contained incident with no anticipated rekindling threat. The department’s official X (Twitter) account (@LAFD) posted no updates on the Lachman Fire during this window, and news reports from the period describe it as quickly suppressed without fanfare.
Relevant Statements from LAFD Officials in the Days Before January 7
The closest documented comments come from a January 16, 2025, community meeting in Westwood, where Pacific Palisades residents raised concerns about a potential link between the Lachman Fire and the Palisades Fire (which had erupted 9 days earlier). These remarks, provided by then-LAFD Assistant Chief Joe Everett (West Bureau, overseeing the Palisades area), retrospectively addressed the department’s handling of the Lachman Fire:
- On containment and monitoring: Everett, who was out of town on New Year’s Day but stayed in phone contact with the Lachman Fire Incident Commander, stated that the fire had been fully suppressed using hose lines, hand lines, and aircraft water drops. He emphasized that LAFD conducted a standard 36-hour patrol and “cold-trailing” operation (physically checking for heat sources) afterward. He described the remnants as appearing “fully extinguished” when crews returned on January 2 to retrieve hoses, and expressed skepticism about rekindling, calling it unlikely given the protocols followed.
Context of the discussion: This was in response to early resident speculation (fueled by satellite imagery showing the Palisades Fire starting near the Lachman burn scar). Everett’s comments aimed to reassure the community that no lapses occurred, though federal investigators later confirmed the holdover embers were undetectable by standard methods at the time.
No other LAFD chief-level statements from January 1–6 appear in public records, as the Lachman Fire did not warrant press briefings. Post-event reviews (released October 8, 2025) by Interim Fire Chief Ronnie Villanueva noted the underground smoldering was “unbeknownst to anyone” and highlighted systemic issues like understaffing during wind events, but these were not pre-January 7 remarks.
Criticisms and Lessons Learned
Former LAFD officials, including retired Battalion Chief Rick Crawford, later criticized the lack of thermal imaging drones during mop-up, calling it a missed “game-changer” for detecting hidden embers—especially with forecasted winds. The October 2025 after-action report implemented changes like mandatory thermal scans for wildfires and full staffing recalls during severe weather, acknowledging chaotic conditions contributed to the Palisades Fire’s rapid spread.
For more details, see the LAFD’s official after-action report or federal arrest affidavit from October 8, 2025."
Serious question - am i safe to assume there is some amount of error in the both the big thermal eye in the sky & the small uas thermal eye in the sky or no? (False positives and/or heat misses)
Also, does it matter or change the error depending on night vs daytime flight?
There are no absolutes. No guarantees but did they use the technology they had available to them? There are videos on instagram of interior smokes from the public. Those are 100% going to show on a uas thermal mapping mission.
These are very sensitive sensors so yup they will show hot rocks holding heat. As an example a recent fire mapped the uas covered part of the freeway and railroad. We had hits on big rig exhaust stacks and the locomotive exhaust.
Missions should be flown at night for best results. They should have results for these missions with the software they use if they did not delete the files.
Now this…
Oh dear! Thats gonna escalate!
That’s the comment “dead out” that i heard in a YT post this a.m. and it prompted me to ask GROK and search for where, who & when was that said. So it was the LAFD Asst Chief. WOW!
And this statement from Interim Chief is also suspect imo..
“The January 7 fire was not a rekindle or due to failed suppression, but the reactivation of an undetectable holdover fire under extraordinary wind conditions,”
A couple of thought here..
1- Hubris is un-healthy & contagious.
2 - I seriously hope & expect that we/they stop calling fires dead out until the snow and/or rain flies. Even in non-timbered fuel types. It may seem silly but silly is better than hubris in the fire buisness. If there is a policy (fire reporting) and or budget issue with that then FIX IT!
3 - This is not bragging this is appreciation for Leadership that taught me the basics. In reading all of this now it is 100% impossible for me not to be thankful that the shots (gridding, hot spotting & turning over every speck of white ash and stumphole in the fire area) AND rappelling wilderness fires (where a 24hr continuous sunlight watch w/out smoke is required before leaving a fire) imparted deeply in me (and others) the importance of taking re-kindles on every sized fire in every fuel type VERY seriously! If i had a dollar for every time my engine crew hated me for lining us out and gridding like crews do i’d be rich!
4 - From the sound of it (especially if there are videos of smokes as is being reported) not only was there no use of thermal heat finding - there was prob no gridding done AND there was poor follow through/patrol after the fact. I didn’t see any of that addressed in the after action report - now im gonna have to go back thru it.. again!
5 - I honestly believe that how an agency, department, unit, module and individual address mop-up/hotspoting/rekindles/re-burn says sooo much about them and their integrity to the mission…
This story/drama keeps getting more sad by the minute..
How many resources do you dedicate to it though? What sensor will you select? How do you differentiate it from background temperatures? Do you really develop a contract to fly every fire for the cost of multiple firefighters or an engine a year? or buy a drone, train firefighters to be UAS operators, and develop the tech stack to process captures (again for the price of multiple firefighters/an engine a year?
Say its a 3" long root ember 1’ underground, what resolution is the sensor being used to detect it? What elevation and pattern are you flying?
Could it potentially be spotted? 100%
Is it worth the resource dedication, maybe 1% (if that IMPO) of the time.
I get that this distracts from the palisades, but just because something is technologically feasible, doesn’t mean its worth while to implement. All this arm chair quarterbacking about what “can” be done using complicated and expensive tech, is silly in my opinion. I don’t necessarily think even a check in on the fire in the days between would have found the hot spot.
The Fire Chief can’t spend any $ on overtime to patrol, or for that matter up-staff for a wind event
They can and did request state resources though.
Cal OES Prepositions Resources in Southern California in Advance of Forecasted Fire Weather Conditions – UPDATED 1/6/25 5:00 PM | Cal OES News
southern-ca-critical-fire-weather-news-release-jan-25.pdf
How many people died, and what would you say their lives were worth?
Were people posting images of smokes to social media?
Your points are worthy in the big picture, but maybe not well targeted for this particular fire.
All IMO. I’m a layman who lives in the footprint of the Dixie fire, and who has evacuated mutliple times during my tenure in Plumas County.
An immeasurable amount.
but, and not to be too offensive, How much are you and your fellow dixie fire survivors going to pay for the tech needed to measure buried heat signatures. You really think plumas, butte, or lassen county residents are going to pay more in taxes willingly to prevent such things? or just expect it be paid for them? We are talking millions a year just for satellite or aerial sensing at a resolution that is not fine enough to capture a buried ember. Not even planet or Maxar’s top of the line offering or the FIRIS aircraft has enough resolution to capture heat sources insulated by the ground. Yes, some UAS sensors are fine enough, but you are again looking at tens to hundreds of millions to deploy on top of staffing and training of those systems. All to do what, become outdated in 3 years and MAYBE catch 1 fire every X years?
I have not seen any, I have seen it tossed out that there were, but the alert cameras have no detections. If there were, seems like a personal responsibility issue with the person that took them for not calling them in. We cannot or nor should we be expected to protect everyone from everything at all times.
Found recent reporting (ABC 7) that speaks to some more details on the mop-up, cold trailing & patrolling after Lauchman Fire was caught.
Disclamer
Stand-by for incoming heavy opinion from a curious non-producer.
In the reporting below i’ve found the newly promoted Chiefs words to be a bit of a relief AND a bit confusing at the same time. For example on Jan16th he talked about patrol, cold trailing etc - i like/needed to hear that bcuz their AAR leaves readers to speculate those details. However, im wondering why he told locals that the fire was “Dead Out” given the knowledge of rekindles in these conditions/fuel type etc. Another confusing statement (for me) comes from a more recent quote where he said in part “The Jan. 7 fire was not a rekindle or due to failed suppression, but the reactivation of an undetectable holdover fire under extraordinary wind conditions.”
I wish the AAR would have included some discussion about this but thats just me. it seems to me that officials et al dont want to give any more bandwidth/oxygen (than they must) to the time between calling Lachman Fire “dead out” and the rekindle / start of Palisades Fire.
Im not digging the hocus pocus implications that rekindles are a set of phenomenon that are impossible to stop and/or detect. Am i supposed to believe rekindles are like UAP’s & Bigfoot?!
Also not cool with the part of calling something dead out and acknowledging that it re-kindled all in the same sentence - how are the public we serve supposed to quantify/understand that?? But hey what do i know. Still not happy to sound like such a keyboard commander BUT this one has me spun up a bit - no sweet tea needed!
Not that it matters at this point - this (below) is from GROK when asked if any videos were posted to the socials regarding smoldering or hotspots in Lachman b4 Palisades began…
From GROK…
Background on the Lachman and Palisades Fires
The Lachman Fire started around 12:12 a.m. on January 1, 2025, near the Skull Rock Trailhead in the Santa Monica Mountains above Pacific Palisades, California. It was quickly contained to about 8 acres by early morning, with mop-up operations and patrols lasting over 36 hours. However, it continued smoldering underground in dense vegetation root systems, a common “holdover” phenomenon in wildfires. This underground combustion can persist undetected for days or weeks, especially in dry conditions.
The Palisades Fire was reported at approximately 10:30 a.m. on January 7, 2025, igniting near the same location along the Temescal Ridge Trail. Strong Santa Ana winds (gusts up to 80 mph) fanned the embers into a massive blaze that burned 23,448 acres, destroyed over 6,800 structures, and killed 12 people before full containment on January 31. Federal investigators later confirmed the Palisades Fire was a direct reignition of the Lachman Fire, with a suspect arrested in October 2025 for intentionally starting the initial blaze.
Evidence of Smoldering or Hotspots Before January 7
Multiple sources document smoldering and hotspots in the Lachman burn scar in the days following its containment, before the Palisades Fire erupted:
January 1 (morning, shortly after containment): Hiker Zane Mitchell reported “parts of the ground… still smoldering” along the Temescal Ridge Trail, with firefighters actively addressing hotspots during cleanup.
January 2: Resident Eric Sallus revisited the site and noted it was “still smoldering” with a strong smoke smell.
January 5: Satellite imagery from Planet Labs showed initial charred land traces from the Lachman Fire, indicating residual heat.
January 7 (morning, ~9:30 a.m., one hour before ignition): A local mountain biker captured footage of the burn scar as winds began picking up, showing visible smoldering. This aligns with expert analysis that winds exposed underground hotspots.
Criticism has focused on the Los Angeles Fire Department’s (LAFD) mop-up, including a lack of thermal imaging to detect deep hotspots and insufficient patrols despite forecasts of high winds. An LAFD after-action report acknowledged response shortcomings but did not address the holdover specifically.
Videos of Smoldering or Hotspots Before the Palisades Fire
Yes, there are publicly referenced videos capturing smoldering in the Lachman Fire burn area before January 7. These were shared by residents and obtained by news outlets during investigations. Key examples include:
|Video Description|Date Recorded|Source/Context|Details|
|Mountain biker footage of Lachman burn scar|January 7, ~9:30 a.m. (1 hour before Palisades ignition)|Shared with ABC7 Eyewitness News; broadcast in July 2025 report|Shows smoldering ground and rising smoke near Skull Rock Trailhead as Santa Ana winds start. Referenced in ABC7’s 6-month investigation into the fire’s cause.|
|Resident video of unattended smoldering in Topanga State Park (Lachman scar)|Early January (exact date unclear, post-January 1 but pre-January 7; no hoses/firefighters visible)|Posted on X by @Hotshot_Movie (October 9, 2025), quoting LAFD statements; also referenced in Washington Examiner|Captures smoke rising from ground with no monitoring crews, highlighting “unacceptable mop-up.” Video URL: https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1976289671865876480/vid/avc1/320x564/rCaSo1kBqiwOnBZW.mp4 (27 seconds).|
|Newly released ignition footage linking Lachman to Palisades|January 7 (ignition moment), with prior smoldering context|Obtained by San Francisco Chronicle (May 2025); reviewed by wildfire experts|Shows proximity of smoke plumes; supports rekindling theory from Lachman hotspots. Not a direct “smoldering” clip but includes analysis of pre-ignition holdover.|
|UC San Diego camera footage of smoke plumes|January 1 and January 7|Obtained by San Francisco Chronicle; referenced in ABC7|Compares smoke from Lachman (smoldering remnants) to Palisades start, from similar locations.|
These videos were crucial in confirming the holdover link and have fueled lawsuits against LAFD, state agencies, and utilities for alleged negligence. No videos of active flames (only smoldering/hotspots) predate January 7, as the fire was surface-contained after January 1. For full clips, search ABC7 archives or X posts from October 9, 2025, using keywords like “Lachman Fire smoldering video.” If you’re seeking thermal/satellite videos, FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) data from NOAA shows hotspot detections in the area from January 2–6.
So far in the time I’ve been in Plumas County, since July 1985, the citizens at large are not even interested in funding their county law enforcement agency, and sometimes not even their local volunteer fire departments. I always vote For while the majority of my fellow Plumasites are voting Against.
In the case of the Dixie fire my own property had smoldering underground. In most cases those were fairly benign, located in the middfle of a scorched ridge with no remaining fuel sources within hundreds of feet. We still walked that ground often to make sure nothing was growing, and during wind events more than once a day. The smoldering held over even after that first decent rain event.
In one case in a completely different area about two hundred feet behind my house, where the fire had roared through and done a lot of damage to some of the flora without destroying all of it, roots deep in the soil under a large dead Cedar came up with open flame that we saw through the woods. We dealt with that promplty and successfully.
Your points about costs are well taken, but I would ask how much would it have cost for someone to have been monitoring social media looking for those multiple posts over a series of days reporting smoldering? I suggest that would have been peanuts, insignificant in light of the deaths and damages that followed not playing attention to details.
I believe routine reactive fingerpointing is useless and ridiculous. I also believe that calling out errors of judgement, public misstatements, and ass covering is critical to identifying what can be done, and what reasonably should be budgeted to prevent an event like the Palisades fire recurring if possible.**
LAFD Type 1 engines are staffed 4/0
LAFD is a Class One Dept.
All FF are issued person TICS for use in structure fires. This TIC’s can be used for wildland by boots on the ground. If not why?
How long does it take 2-4 engines, 4/0 staffed to grid an 8 acre fire with TIC’s?
36hr patrol & mop-up. Why not a 72hr? Patrol
"NO SMOKES, NO FLAMES. WE WILL BE BACK OUT TOMORROW "
How many 911 calls were received after 0630 on 1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, 1/5?
These are some of the questions I have that remain unanswered.
Yeah calling it “out” after 36 hours is definitely odd to me.
Around here the rule is 3 days, no smokes. If you find a smoke, clock is reset.
That’s not a perfect method either, I’ve been back to a fire 2 weeks later for a smoke check because some stump hole decided 2am was the perfect time to go up in flames.
No method is perfect, but at a certain point we can’t chase marginal gains. If 99% of fires are put out with method A, but Method B puts out 99.9%, but takes three times as long and double the resources there isn’t much of a real benefit to be had.
Back in the 1970’s when I was a Tank Truck Operator on the Plumas we would use our noses when patrolling a fire. Even with no visible smoke, a stump hole will give off a creosote smell if the roots are smoldering. I wonder if a drone (or dog) could do this?
Your’s, OldTTO, Ehoss 84 & Secretmtn words above have me reflecting on; 1, human factors 2, how sop’s can sometimes bite you 3, new potential use for those DARPA dog-like robots!
As a taxpayer i’d like to think that no matter the rule of thumb fire managers follow - corporate culture OR Doctrine should allow for them to safely and confidently maneuver when circumstances change - in this case no measurable precip in the fire area for 8+ months - the rule of thumb and measurables needed for patrolling OR to call a fire controlled, out etc can be adjusted/tweaked per local chief officer(s) and IC discretion. I now wonder if those in charge & those on the ground felt like they could speak up/out and make adjustment’s? Or was the mindset business as usual / routine small fire. Btw, Ive fallen for that trap myself - ive had seemingly controlled fire take off so this isnt coming from a gotcha place - its from an ive been there/done that place.
Also, this seems like it could be a real good task for those creepy walking dog like DARPA robots. Those rascals are tasked with important missions for our military & law enforcement - you cant tell me that they couldnt be tasked/trained to find heat OR smell a smoldering stumphole. Not trying to put flying drones out of business however those walking robot/drones could work too..
@PSC-type I can speak from an agency that has a UAS program and has used the exact same technology that LAFD has at their disposal.A thermal sensor drone flying at 200 feet is going to map that 8 acres in about 20 minutes. The cost of the drone is 6k and that will get you about 5 years of service out of it.The cost of the Nova SaaS platform is 1k annually. Everything is a trade off in government. Your question on does it detect XYZ in certain conditions is hard to answer but I will tell you the tech does work and why not make that investment when you have a lot at risk? You would have a lot better story to tell the community that we flew it and it had no heat after we mopped up than if you didnt. I think that is the biggest factor, they had the tech. Did they use it or not. The community already made the investment. To argue against if it would have picked up this or that is useless. The question is, was it used.
Trailer for a new 30min film that hit Vimeo today.
Click on the film title to go the the official site..
I showed some maps of the Lachlan Fire and shots from close to the origin on The Lookout Livestream, tonight. https://www.youtube.com/live/DNSBWK2QEeo?si=ljN9RIPjUWdFXPKn
I call it honker training and I kid you not I find a FF to do it every time we mop up. (Honker Activation) means the following.
If you can smell it actively burning it exudes a unique aroma you may not see or find it for quite some time. Look for obvious things like smoke, if none look for hand line berm, dozer mash/berm, or sometimes stained leaves particularly in the Oak leaves and duff.
Stump holes not smoking may be stained yellow on top but suppressing the smoke the smoke stains the ash. Also gnats on the surface of ash usually indicate heat especially near stump holes.
Check the oak limbs above you, if nothing is discoverable check wind pattern and travel a bit, if smell dissipates return to area. If you are struggling target suspicious areas with nozzle.
Occasionally a honker may be falsely activated by a dirty burn that leaves a stained incomplete burn usually caused by rain or high fuel moisture that one is hard to describe. If uncertain target suspicious area with nozzle. Key attributes to this one is smell is constant in large area.
A deep root system is dangerous for serious reasons and also for frustrating reasons. Train your honker 99/100 the trained honker is stronger than the dangerous root.