CA-MMU-OAK???

[Fyredude]

Mariposa County Fire is now a CAL FIRE Schedule A Contract.

[209fban]

GOES 17 showing a pretty massive heat signature for so early in the burn period, this does not bode well for today. Also, the column is already punching up and is visible in Murphys.

[Ibcrankin]

[wfapdude]

Looks like that fire is tipping its hand for what to expect today! Heads up y’all! Im going to go work on my marine layer dance for you…

[apx8000]

The 3 to 5am heat map update on Caltopo:
(Usual 2-3 hour delay for signatures. Also smoke will give some false heat signatures with this size of fire -FYI )
https://caltopo.com/map.html#ll=37.51756,-119.8859&z=13&b=t&o=f16a%2Cr&n=1,0.25&a=mba%2Cfire%2Cmodis_mp

[IMT_Geek]

History and Honoring the Past
A little grace from the Mods over the length of this post. I hope it is worthwhile in causing people to think. Late last night and this morning I looked through a fire progression model (WFA) made for this fire shortly after it started. Thankfully it over-predicted the Oak’s progress in size and shape. Primarily it instituted excessive lateral spread instead of the more linear shape it currently occupies. In addition, I believe it was initialized without the benefit of local conditions, so they didn’t attenuate the 1H, 10HR, RH, and Wind Speed like we see in this area after the sun sets. I imagine today’s run will be far more accurate. But an apocalyptic map slapped me into thinking. With that in mind, I’d like to revisit the Chief’s (@FireHawkC3100) comments he made during the Washburn Incident.

---

@FireHawkC3100

History repeats itself as evidenced by many fires over the years that duplicate an earlier or many earlier fire footprints, i.e. Oakland-Berkeley Hills (1923, 1946, 1970, 1991).

The Washburn Fire must be closely watched to be sure it does not duplicate the 1961 Harlow Fire which burned nearby. Attached is the fire progression map for the Harlow Fire which I believe IMT Geek posted a week or so ago at this website.

HarlowFireBurningProgressMap~July10-12,1961~28jun22.pdf (286.3 KB)

---

Thankfully, the Washburn was under the influence of different geographical features so I didn’t necessarily agree. But his point is extremely relevant and wise. If you look at some of the few fires we’ve had in our area that were in the same Awhahnee and Oakhurst “bowl” there is a definite pattern. It is the same pattern that the Oak has established. Look at fires like.

2014 Courtney Fire
2014 Junction Fire
2017 Ben Fire
2017 Detwiler

And to credit the Chief, the 1961 Harlow Fire. Unless trumped by some transient meteorological condition, all have a very definite pattern to their major spread, from the northwest to the southeast based on our normal diurnal wind pattern and geographical funnel.

Currently the Oak Fire is approximately five miles northwest of the point of origin of the Harlow – that is upwind – read that again. I wasn’t on it, but there are folks on this site who were. The bottom line is that we probably have very similar fuel and weather conditions. The final side of the fire triangle, topography, is certainly completed based on proximity. Those who don’t know, the Harlow occupied the record books for decades with its rate of spread.

The historical perspective is one of the things we need to keep in the back of our minds, whether we are on the line, in the ICP, or at your property. Honor the potential, simple as that. If you look at the towns of Nipinnawasee and Ahwahnee today you would never know they burned in 1961. That demonstrates that homes and infrastructure can and will be replaced. But lives can never be replaced - ever. Honor the potential, I hope I am off base with my concern and get smacked.

A slightly deeper dive if you are interested is at 1961 Harlow Fire Mariposa County California

[Pallasfire]

It was boss

[DogBone]

You can see it for sure.

[Firedude52]

It’s getting with it. Looking from Miami Peak you can see quite a bit of fire activity as well as spots…

[WLF8609]

I could see it from outside of coalinga.

[ffviking]

From my house in Sonora 30 to 35 air miles away.

[TheBrushSlasher]

Deadwood had a good view.
https://www.alertwildfire.org/region/sierra/?camera=Axis-Deadwood2

[LACoCB]

…thought you lived in Twain Hart…beautiful small community…favorite Vet there…thanks for all your updates

still a lot of heat in her:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-18&sec=full_disk&x=13642&y=3485&z=6&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=250&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=0&p[0]=fire_temperature&p[1]=cira_natural_fire_color&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[TheBrushSlasher]

Caught a fire whirl on the deadwood camera. I bet that was interesting.
https://youtu.be/zTJEl9iqmz4

[foetwinny]

Structure loss along Darrah Rd

Pictures courtesy of @RMGNews Twitter

[FIRE-205]

[northbayfcret]

Great educational Post! Well worth the length and well written. I think the phrase "Honor the potential" can not be stressed enough. I wasn’t around for the Harlow, but it was a top topic in FB Classes through the 80ies.

[anvilhead]

Additional mid level moisture moving in from the south east today will increase the chances of pyrocu development. Important to watch the column today and not focus on the fire front with the spotting that’s going on.

[IMT_Geek]

Can we say, today it is important to watch the column, the fire front, and the spotting? Keep your head on a swivel please!

[trishaswcfirewx]

Excellent commentary and very much appreciated from me.