History and Honoring the Past
A little grace from the Mods over the length of this post. I hope it is worthwhile in causing people to think. Late last night and this morning I looked through a fire progression model (WFA) made for this fire shortly after it started. Thankfully it over-predicted the Oak’s progress in size and shape. Primarily it instituted excessive lateral spread instead of the more linear shape it currently occupies. In addition, I believe it was initialized without the benefit of local conditions, so they didn’t attenuate the 1H, 10HR, RH, and Wind Speed like we see in this area after the sun sets. I imagine today’s run will be far more accurate. But an apocalyptic map slapped me into thinking. With that in mind, I’d like to revisit the Chief’s (@FireHawkC3100) comments he made during the Washburn Incident.
Thankfully, the Washburn was under the influence of different geographical features so I didn’t necessarily agree. But his point is extremely relevant and wise. If you look at some of the few fires we’ve had in our area that were in the same Awhahnee and Oakhurst “bowl” there is a definite pattern. It is the same pattern that the Oak has established. Look at fires like.
2014 Courtney Fire
2014 Junction Fire
2017 Ben Fire
2017 Detwiler
And to credit the Chief, the 1961 Harlow Fire. Unless trumped by some transient meteorological condition, all have a very definite pattern to their major spread, from the northwest to the southeast based on our normal diurnal wind pattern and geographical funnel.
Currently the Oak Fire is approximately five miles northwest of the point of origin of the Harlow – that is upwind – read that again. I wasn’t on it, but there are folks on this site who were. The bottom line is that we probably have very similar fuel and weather conditions. The final side of the fire triangle, topography, is certainly completed based on proximity. Those who don’t know, the Harlow occupied the record books for decades with its rate of spread.
The historical perspective is one of the things we need to keep in the back of our minds, whether we are on the line, in the ICP, or at your property. Honor the potential, simple as that. If you look at the towns of Nipinnawasee and Ahwahnee today you would never know they burned in 1961. That demonstrates that homes and infrastructure can and will be replaced. But lives can never be replaced - ever. Honor the potential, I hope I am off base with my concern and get smacked.
A slightly deeper dive if you are interested is at 1961 Harlow Fire Mariposa County California