Had some nice mammatus clouds about 5pm with a few snow flakes.
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Two places, Madera foothills, more or less, where streamflow is above ‘normal’. Flow has been above normal, particularly around the circle I drew on the south end of the Madera foothills, more or less. I think we should still expect this flow to be above normal because we got, like what, 130% above nominal snowpack this year.
Before the drought argument, where you say that’s 130% minus the previous deficit, its not minus that deficit because that snow is still there and will runoff. We should, I think, expect increased runoff without having to stipulate that it is increased and unaccounted snowmelt, over and above the increased snowpack, and its probably still too early for that.
In my layman’s view, this indicates that even a nominal (normal) runoff is going to look unusual, particularly where other circumstances, dead and down trees, altered water flow due to flood damage, or alteration of the channel, are factors.
These factors have to be accounted for before declaring a specifically unusual runoff pattern of unusual melting. If it gets warm and stays warm, it will melt faster, but, again, there isn’t much of a mystery there to solve.
In addition, the wildfires were at higher elevations, to be sure, but so was the three years of drought that contributed to Dixie and Caldor, which I think may account for a majority of those elevation numbers, particularly Dixie, which is especially noted for how far east it went.
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USFS AERIAL DETECTION SURVEY: 2022 SUMMARY REPORT (R5 California Tree Mortality)
Information below is based on data recorded and shared by the USDA Forest Service, R5 State & Private Forestry, Aerial Detection Survey (ADS) program. Surveys are conducted to provide annual estimates of tree mortality and damage and depict broad mortality trends. Most of California’s forested areas were surveyed in 2022.
Highlights from this year’s survey:
• Total tree mortality increased significantly both in acres affected and particularly in estimated trees killed from 2021. Average severity of mortality was also significantly higher.
• Mortality consisted primarily of true fir which comprised over 77% of the total and was the largest tally ever recorded by R5 ADS. Mortality was particularly severe and widespread in the central Sierra Nevada Range.
• Mortality was particularly severe and widespread in the north interior in several conifer species where drought conditions were most exceptional.
• Mortality attributed to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) remained steady with an estimated 380,000 dead trees across 44,000 acres in 2021 to approximately 390,000 dead trees across 40,000 acres in 2022. Within this group, whitebark pine accounted for most of the mortality occurring throughout its range.
• Douglas-fir mortality (not attributed to damage by bears) increased most dramatically. However, mortality in 2021 was relatively small. 2022 Mortality was common throughout the host range but was particularly concentrated north and west of the Redding area.
• Pinyon pine mortality attributed to Ips sp. increased from an estimated 60,000 dead trees across 8,400 acres in 2021 to ~220,000 dead trees across 16,000 acres in 2022 mostly in the White Mountains of far eastern CA.
• Incense cedar mortality was quite common and is underrepresented by aerial survey based on field reports as these trees were typically smaller size class and thus hard to see from a distance.
• Tanoak mortality attributed to sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum) decreased substantially since dry spring weather inhibits the spread of this invasive disease.
• Oak mortality attributed to goldspotted oak borer (Agrilus auroguttatus) decreased significantly and was again concentrated primarily in and around the Palomar Ranger District, Cleveland National Forest in San Diego County.
• Oak discoloration, early leaf-drop, possible dieback and mortality was common throughout interior areas of the state. Actual mortality is difficult to detect from a distance, but significant oak mortality is possible over large areas.
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Drought Report
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/CLIMATE-CHANGE/CALIFORNIA-DROUGHT/byvrlqxqnve/index.html/
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Crews have had to lug their equipment through the snow and dig to access fire hydrants, draining precious time to respond to the emergencies, according to the San Bernardino County Fire Department.
At least two people were injured in a house fire Wednesday afternoon in the community of Blue Jay, about a mile from Lake Arrowhead Village.
After snow in California mountains, gas fires and collapsed roofs - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
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For another point of view.
As of this morning (4-5-23) Daniel currently has this warm AR at about a 10% chance but also says there is a lot of uncertainty with this AR.
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Found this article about the site that posted the WARNING: ARKSTORM article:
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Elevated streamflows. Next week’s forecast is definitely a harbinger of a possible rain on snow event and escalation. Warmer rain may cause snow to melt and runoff at a higher rate than expected. In case it hasn’t been said enough times, flood is sneaky and accumulative. Under the surface tension is immense strength and power. Aside from isolation, gas fire and snow loading, is road conditions. If you can find some other place to be with access to essentials you might lack from more road closures, its probably a good idea. Roads are gonna be pretty sketchy.
The view of the snow covered mountains and hills is pretty to look at, but these places with unusual snow are possibly at a high risk for rain-on-snow runoff escalation and drivers in these areas more likely to encounter unexpected water.
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