It’s tough to think about the end of fire season with this week’s hot temps, but cooler weather is on the way. There hasn’t been any new big fires since the end of the Park Fire. Generally speaking CA’s fires seem to have turned off. The north winds that the weather Gurus predicted never realy came around with any force and there have been only some minimal red flag warnings. Is fire season in California over? Should we put our gear away for the year?
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Some might disagree from south of the Techachapi’s. Let’s see the Bridge, Airport and the Line fire which is still a problem or it was. Thankfully we have not had a North wind to speak of. That could be disastrous in these dry conditions. Fuels are way to receptive right now. Until we get adequate moisture it’s a long way from over.
Look at the problems on the Peak Fire on the STF. Not the Biggest fire in the world, and not from a lack of Air support and ground crews. They are getting a tremendous amount of spot fire in the brush and timber. So far it’s just short range spotting but none the less a pain in the backside.
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I’m in NE CA, and it is damn dry hereabouts, and has been for too long.
Zeke mentioned a lack of dew. My “lawn” is mowed meadow, and it hasn’t seen dew lately.
Every day I feel the potential for dangerous fire here. I hope we don’t get that, but conditions on the ground are conducive to ignition.
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Still extremely dry in northern CA. Even at 7000 feet fuels are still very receptive and ready to burn. Will take a significant moisture event, not just a shower or 2 to put us out of fire season.
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The only sure bet is that the 2024 Fire Season will end on December 31 at 23:59. Until then, there is always an opportunity for there to be something catastrophic take place. The Tubbs Fire, the Woolsey Fire, the Camp Fire, the Oakland Hills Fire, the Panorama Fire all occurred after this point and all occurred when the great consensus was that fire season was over. The worst thing to do at this point is to become complacent thinking it’s over. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t but there is too much risk to just assume that it is done.
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The Camp Fire started on November 8th, and that wasn’t even a particularly hot or dry year as I recall. This year has been both unusually hot and dry, both during the summer and fall.
We’ve had a couple of spot fires around here, plus a lot of people who have a “well it’s cold overnight, so I can do burn piles now” or “I’m a deer hunter, the rules don’t apply to me” mindset.
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Is this post seriously questioning the end of the season or meant to get us discussing that we are far from over? I hope the latter. Some of the scariest and most damaging fires I’ve attended in my moderately lengthy career in CA involved watching homes burn down with Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas decorations on the lawns and hanging from rooflines. The Thomas Fire really stands out as one where entire neighborhoods burned to the ground, but melted Xmas yard decorations were still eerily present. The worst is quite possibly still to come. Do not put your brush gear in the back of your grid lockers. -Cya out there.
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A new statewide Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory for elevated to extreme ERC values, low fuel moistures, and above average herbaceous fuel loads across the state was just issued by predictive services:
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/fuels-fire-danger
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Is this a joke? The state just baked under 100 degree temps and RH in the teens. A cooler week or two means nothing. Everything is now baked in a kiln. One wind event and fire could easily run from the Mayacamas to the Pacific.
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Keep your gear and go bag ready because all we need is one or two to pop off and we have people in some agencies being laid off for the season to stretch resources thinner. While the odds may not be high they are high enough to pound everyone’s plans into a fine pink mist.
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So much more is now known about the variability (seasonality) within a given Season. Isnt it beyond time to evolve how we talk about and view the occurrence of Fires? “We” need to help get folks past the idea of the “season” and be real about the climatological factors & burn window’s when fires should be expected to happen in a given geographic area. The seasonal concept just don’t cut it anymore - not representative of on the ground facts & it actually hinders the public’s preparedness thus making responders job’s much more challenging. Its like we’re stuck on auto-pilot using the word “Season” because there isn’t a better (widely accepted nomenclature) word for it yet… imo…
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2018, that’s all I have to say
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Christmas in Ojai, California. 1999-2000 Ranch Fire.
Yes, fire season was over early then, too.
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I believe we’re getting plenty of evidence today, and the past few days, that it’s not over. And no rain in the near future.
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The Thomas, Creek, Skirball and Lilac Fires exploded across California from Santa Paula to Fallbrook in December after mild rains and an overcast November seemingly ended the 2017 fire season following the October Firestorms that destroyed much of Sonoma and Butte County areas.
Fires were still exploding in California in December 2020. The Bond Fire in Orange County, Creek Fire in San Diego.
Fire season ain’t over in California until the first inches of snow fall across the state. And even then, you may not even get real relief until March rains of the next year. Colby Fire of January 2014, Veijas Fire of January 2002, Sierra Fire and Plunge Fire 2006.
There’s honestly too many examples of how fire season can very much be year-round in Southern California at the very least.
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I think the pure death and destruction of 2018 tends to overshadow how deadly and destructive 2017 was in equal measures.
Frankly put, it should be more “like 2017 and 2018” imo. The Camp Fire was just the explosive finale of two horrifically terrible back to back years of wildfires.
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A lot of “old school” answers to the question. I think anyone paying attention knows that the fire season in California is year around. The wildland hose is on the engine 365 days a year. Weather and fuel moisture determine the the severity in any given month across the state. I think they call this “the new normal” Stay vigilant and expect the unexpected.
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California Fire Season IS YEAR ROUND
Just have to follow the season to SoCal/CSR.
BDU in the OV burns Dec-Mar
SDU has had destructive fires in Jan, Mar, & May
RRU has hosted more than a few Thanksgiving Fireline meals
LAC/VNC have hosted too many “Malibu” fires to count in Nov.
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