Is this a joke? The state just baked under 100 degree temps and RH in the teens. A cooler week or two means nothing. Everything is now baked in a kiln. One wind event and fire could easily run from the Mayacamas to the Pacific.
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Keep your gear and go bag ready because all we need is one or two to pop off and we have people in some agencies being laid off for the season to stretch resources thinner. While the odds may not be high they are high enough to pound everyone’s plans into a fine pink mist.
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So much more is now known about the variability (seasonality) within a given Season. Isnt it beyond time to evolve how we talk about and view the occurrence of Fires? “We” need to help get folks past the idea of the “season” and be real about the climatological factors & burn window’s when fires should be expected to happen in a given geographic area. The seasonal concept just don’t cut it anymore - not representative of on the ground facts & it actually hinders the public’s preparedness thus making responders job’s much more challenging. Its like we’re stuck on auto-pilot using the word “Season” because there isn’t a better (widely accepted nomenclature) word for it yet… imo…
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2018, that’s all I have to say
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Christmas in Ojai, California. 1999-2000 Ranch Fire.
Yes, fire season was over early then, too.
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I believe we’re getting plenty of evidence today, and the past few days, that it’s not over. And no rain in the near future.
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The Thomas, Creek, Skirball and Lilac Fires exploded across California from Santa Paula to Fallbrook in December after mild rains and an overcast November seemingly ended the 2017 fire season following the October Firestorms that destroyed much of Sonoma and Butte County areas.
Fires were still exploding in California in December 2020. The Bond Fire in Orange County, Creek Fire in San Diego.
Fire season ain’t over in California until the first inches of snow fall across the state. And even then, you may not even get real relief until March rains of the next year. Colby Fire of January 2014, Veijas Fire of January 2002, Sierra Fire and Plunge Fire 2006.
There’s honestly too many examples of how fire season can very much be year-round in Southern California at the very least.
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I think the pure death and destruction of 2018 tends to overshadow how deadly and destructive 2017 was in equal measures.
Frankly put, it should be more “like 2017 and 2018” imo. The Camp Fire was just the explosive finale of two horrifically terrible back to back years of wildfires.
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A lot of “old school” answers to the question. I think anyone paying attention knows that the fire season in California is year around. The wildland hose is on the engine 365 days a year. Weather and fuel moisture determine the the severity in any given month across the state. I think they call this “the new normal” Stay vigilant and expect the unexpected.
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California Fire Season IS YEAR ROUND
Just have to follow the season to SoCal/CSR.
BDU in the OV burns Dec-Mar
SDU has had destructive fires in Jan, Mar, & May
RRU has hosted more than a few Thanksgiving Fireline meals
LAC/VNC have hosted too many “Malibu” fires to count in Nov.
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Oh yeah, don’t forget the individuals who think just because it’s October and slightly cooler you can light up your burn piles. Fku and sierra just finished up the acorn fire in meadow lakes.
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The Shoe Fire provides a good look at current fire behavior in mid-elevation conifer/black oak forests. It has been burning for over 5 days with minimal direct attack and not a lot of aerial assets in past few days and has only grown to 3,200 acres. The minor precip (almost none) we had on Saturday knocked things back a little bit. There is a forecast for north winds this weekend, but maybe some precip before that. Spent the weekend in Cohasset and it feels like we are into a good burn window in the pine/oak fuel type.
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I know this group likes to think that “Fire Season” is year around. There is always the chance of some anomaly that proves the rule. However, at least in Northern California, there is a season, and its over. Two weeks ago one third of the state was in redflag conditions and nothing happened. The Sierra’s high temps this week will be in the 40’s. I would feel a little better about calling an end to the fire season with more rain on the ground, but I am putting my gear away for the year.
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I’m sitting in SoCal and it’s 90 degrees 16% RH with an east wind. I think the “end of fire season” concept leads to complacency on those “anomaly” events that we have.
Combat ready at all times should be the mentality in my opinion.
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I guess I just don’t understand the need for all of you to “declare” fire season over. Peak burning conditions will continue to be connected to weather patterns. In 2012 in April we ripped off 4000 acres of timber at 4500 feet in Mill Creek Canyon.
I watched a fire rip under a north wind off the Geysers on 11/28. I watched a fire start in Pulga and jump the West Branch of the Feather River and destroy over 18,000 structures and kill 85 people on 11/8. I watched a series of piles rip down into Bean Creek and the Middle Fork of the Feather River on Thanksgiving. I took a strike team through a snow storm over Fredonyer Summit only to have my windshield pitted by sand blowing in 65 mph winds on 395 in Doyle as it smoked 15 structures and another fire to the south did even more damage. I got home right before Halloween in 2017 after watching multiple fires do immense damage in Sonoma and Napa Counties, destroy thousands of homes and take nearly 3 dozen lives… fire season was then over until I left for the Thomas Fire and did not make it home until 3 days before Christmas. I watched several hundred acres rip across rice fields in December, several thousand acres of marsh and Tule’s burn in January after a hard freeze . In 2015 I saw RFW issued in February and March and fought fires that escaped IA with some getting to 25 acres in the grass and brush.
Not sure why everyone is so worried about when it ends… peak and non peak. Your PPE is on the rig if you are on the rig.
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Thank you. It also breeds bad morale in the younger generation to be constantly told that fire season is over and essentially that their paychecks are going to stop coming. It breeds complacency. Most of our significantly devastating wildfires that include loss of property and fatalities happen in the latter part of the year. I am very confused as to why anybody would not constantly maintain a Fire ready, mindset, and physical condition.
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To put it bluntly, it’s about money. Not everyone on this blog is a career firefighter. If I was being paid by an agency to fight fire, I would certantly be ready for any emergency at any time. However, some are contractors. A lot of equipment is not firefighting equipment, but construction equipment that can be used on fires. During the course of the fire season many construction jobs have been turned down to stay available for fire jobs. Construction jobs are easier on the euipment, can be scheduled, and are usually located nearby. They also can provide a regular pay check and pay a fair wage. So, if the fire season is over due to weather, or fuel conditions, it makes no sence to turn down construciton work going forward… The point has been made that big fires can happen anytime of year. But as a contractor, I am going to play the numbers. If the chances of a fire starting are low due to weather or other conditions and a construction job comes in, I will take the construction job. I could go on…That is why we look to the experts to see if “FIRE SEASON” is over,
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As a contractor myself, I turned down as many '“Fire calls” as I accepted. Having year round work is the name of the game. Pissing off a long term, good customer who uses you day in, day out ALWAYS pencils out better then pissing them off for the 1-3 fire assignments a year. If you are a Owner Operator working single shift. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Now if you have employees, that’s a different story. I’ve rented equipment to cover my DAY JOBS at a break even rate, to accept the fire assignment. I’ve worked for people who have LOST $$ with rental equipment on a customer’s job site to take the fire assignment too.
But as MANY have stated,. Not having your PPE in your equipment/vehicle is foolish as not having your safety vest, boots and hard hat on a construction jobs item.
This only reinforces the 7-P’s.
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Since people are actively losing homes in San Diego as I type this, can we please stop with the “season is over rhetoric?”
The public views and trusts this site, and frankly we shouldn’t do anything that changes the perception of ready set go.
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SoOps Predictive Services Assessment/Outlook Nov 24 to Feb 25
November 2024 – February 2025 South Ops Highlights
• There is a moderate tilt in the odds towards both above normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation for the next 4 months.
• There is a slight tilt in the odds towards an above normal number of offshore wind events
over the next 4 months.
• Significant fire potential will be near normal with most of the region moving out of season
and at little risk for significant fire but some potential remaining over Southern California
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