Once again it seems like this storm has weakened as it came closer to us. Projected rain totals for the weekend have fallen from inches to perhaps an inch . Just not expecting a lot out of this storm. But anything will be appreciated. Most of the wet stuff will be in the northern mountains and towards the coast. A low pressure area dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring cold and wet conditions Friday. The frontal system will then deliver breezy south-southwest winds and It will also bring moderate to heavy snow to the mountains, moderate rain to the foothills, and light to moderate rain to the valley. Snow levels will mostly be down to around 4000’. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Central Siskiyou County while dry weather continues across the South. An additional weak front will then move across the far North Saturday into early Sunday, and an additional band of light rain/mountain snow is expected. Dry and warmer weather is forecast Saturday afternoon through early next week with temperatures becoming slightly above-normal. Wet and unsettled weather looks to return around midweek with potential for widespread precipitation followed by drier weather towards the end of the week. Hopefully between Friday’s event and one that may pass thru next Tuesday/Wednesday we will be able to see the end of this horrible fire season.
A cold front currently moving through Humboldt will progress across the rest of the territory today, reaching near a Big Sur to Tahoe line by tonight, and produce breezy to gusty south winds, rain and mountain snow mostly above 6000’. Rain and Sierra snow will then move into the southern portions of the territory tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure tracking into the Pacific Northwest will bring moderate to heavy rain, high elevation snow, and strong south winds to the region through the day. A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from 10am this morning through 6pm Tuesday for portions of the Western Slopes of the Sierra above 6500’. Up to 2 feet of snow will be possible through Wednesday night. A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect for the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra above 5500’ from 1pm today through 6pm Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch has now also been issued for areas surrounding the Claremont & Bear Fire burn scars from this morning through tonight. Heavy rain is expected in that area this afternoon and evening. There will be a decent chance for flash flooding and ash flows during that time. A High Wind Watch is already in effect for Modoc and Siskiyou Counties and will stay in effect through 7pm tonight. Gusts out of the south up to 80mph will be possible in those areas today. An additional High Wind Watch will be in effect from 9am this morning through 7pm tonight for areas of Lassen and Plumas Counties. South to southwest gusts up to 70mph will be possible in those areas during that time. Winds are out of the south to 10mph this morning, but will be picking up to around 25mph in the valley this afternoon. Gusts up to 35mph will be possible in the valley, while mountain and foothill areas have the potential for much stronger gusts this afternoon and evening. Valley areas will have the potential for moderate showers and higher elevations will still have periods of heavier showers on Wednesday.
I would imagine that this week should really put the last nail in fire season , At least in Nor Cal
The last storm was much needed and appreciated but a little hit and miss for coverage and amounts.
UpDate 11/18 5pm
Rain totals for the storm are coming in. Just short of 3 in Paradise. About the Same for Jarbo Gap. Up in the bear fire scar Bucks lake was at 3.5 and 4 trees hit 5 inches. None the too shabby
Fire season is over in MMU and residents can start pile burning on the 23rd. it’s over on the east side of FKU as well just waiting for them to lift burn restrictions.
I’m seeing indications of some decent off shore winds towards the end of the weekend and middle of next week for the Bay Area. Any weather folks have an opinion.
It looks like the potential for a multi-day offshore wind event for CNR. This fall we have seen the semi-permanent HP ridge centered in the Great Basin. This dome of HP is deflecting storms up and over it, causing them to dive down the east side of the Sierra’s. This is what has kept us dry and warm.
Beginning on Saturday night we should see the winds switch to the north and then strengthen through Tuesday. Sunday and Monday look to be the strongest of the winds.The winds should pick up an east component by Sunday and Monday that will shift the focus to the Sierra’s .
I would expect the normal locations to see moderate to strong winds by Sunday along the west side of the valley. Temps may warm up with the adiabatic warming to near 70 in the valley as well.
Things are still dry, I would not be surprised to see some fires out of this wind event.
PSP’s starting in 3 days. Get that wood stocked up.
https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outages/map/?type=forecasted
https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article247622060.html#storylink=mainstage_card3
PG&E Emergency Operations Center remains activated to monitor an offshore wind event late Sunday into Monday. At this time, the winds are expected to be strongest across the Central Sierra as well as the North Bay.
In the Northern Sacramento Valley A cold front will pass through the area without much of an initial effect, but the area of low pressure will remain in the area on Sunday and Monday, and that will bring breezy to windy weather both days. We’ll have a brighter, warmer break from the active weather on Tuesday before a deeper trough of low pressure moves overhead late Wednesday through Friday. It appears that we will remain dry, but we’ll have more breezes Wednesday and stronger wind at times next Thursday and Friday. No determinable rain is in any forecast for the next couple of weeks and multiple wind events seeming in the works it would seem we are not quite out of the woods on fire season yet. Piles of dry leaves everywhere and folks running generators and lighting wood stoves…I read Bond Fire started from a “domestic” generator exploding during a power outage. Just when you thought enough was enough here we go again ?
PGE has taken down the PSPS watch for all of the zones except zone 8. They do state that they are still monitoring the situation, but as of the time of this post it looks like the scale of the PSPS is much smaller than previous discussion.
“: The PG&E Emergency Operations Center remains activated and is currently monitoring an offshore wind event expected to develop early tomorrow and continue into early Tuesday. One mitigating factor we are monitoring closely are the relative humidity values during the event as they are not expected to be as critical as events earlier this year. At this time, the highest risk of strong winds, dry fuels and lower relative humidity alignment during the wind event has shifted farther south and the highest fire threat is now expected across the Central and Southern Sierra and Zone 8 is in PSPS Watch. Although CA has received some precipitation earlier in the season, shrub and brush fuel moisture remains very low and dead fuels are exceedingly dry for this time of year. Thus far, most locations have received less than a third to half the normal amount of precipitation to date.”
It has only really rained the one time here but it was significant. But the weather has been cool and the days are short and if you go kick dry leaves they will still be wet underneath. Almost no dust on dirt roads. I can’t believe they even put up a PSPS watch in the first place. AT&T was out all day installing portable gensets, now they won’t need them.
I think PGE may have acted early to call off the Outage. Wind has come up tonight in Paradise, the leaves are flying , branches snapping and Trees falling … Flying Firewood, just all sorts of havoc going on out there tonight . Going to be hard to sleep tonight with all the noise out .
NWS posted a Red Flag Warning this evening for the Sacramento Valley .
It feels to me like fire season is pretty-much over in Butte County. The winds howled in the normal places last 24 hrs, but the max temps are very mild, and min humidities have barely touched the 20s in most places this week before today. The burning period is as short as it gets. We have had perfect afternoon prescribed burning conditions in the lower elevation grasslands around Chico for weeks now. And as soon as the sun sets, you can’t get the 6" dead grass in my back yard to burn with a torch.
Chico State Reserves is hoping to burn 70 acres this week in the Foothills above Chico, but I wish we’d have been burning for the last 3 weeks…
Just my observations… Anyone else got thoughts on the topic?
Threat is still there for South slopes but once it gets to the top, I think most of the time it’ll go out. Always exceptions…you know the right wind with the right fuel and the right ignition on the right day.
I think I find myself in Agreement with you gentlemen. If last nights 45 mph gusts thru Paradise with the electric on had happened in August or September I think we would have had more problems than we did. Parts of town lost power but no fires I heard of. Biggest problem we had was trees gone gray snapping off half way down and crashing into what ever. Sort of a game of Russian Roulette with Trees. There will always a risk of fire in the Urban Interface. Improperly disposed of embers from a stove , homeless camps. People burning slash and brush outside legal hours or conditions , a endless list of possibilities. So who knows what could happen if the right circumstances come at the wrong time . The kind of fires we have been seeing I believe are most likely done in these parts for now. I would feel better saying this if it rained again but most of the catalysts for large fires seems to be lessening in the risk of really being a probability as the days get longer and colder.
I do agree as well I wish we were more proactive with control burns and used them on a larger scale. Now is a great time. Green grasses fueled by the last rain are starting to come up. Take advantage of the weather and conditions why you have them. @pyrogeography Wish you luck in getting your burn in. Prescribed burns are a valuable tool just wish it could be bigger and more often. But I fear I am getting a little off topic… Apologies… We will see how my opinion on fire season holds up to tonight’s winds…
About half of what we saw last night.
Forecast models advertise significant precipitation for North Ops during the next 10 days, reaffirming that fire season is over for North Ops.
looks good for the North, and that is great…hopes it comes true. down South it may be a bit dryer…hopefully you can come up with some Southernly moisture…Farmers Almanack does not look good for the South…Hope for great results for the North…they have taken a beating this year so far…think positive…
Just a hair over .75 here in Twain Harte. It was a good soaking rain. In early October we got 1.75 in a storm. Drove over Hwy 88 and not much snow over the passes that was last Monday. Kid was on four acres on the STF on Wednesday. So with the up coming storm tomorrow and the one we just had hopefully the storm door will stay open. Damn, we need it!!!
Forecast models are advertising deep layered troughing across at least Central and Northern CA at the end of the month. In fact, a rare surface low may develop off of the coast of Nothern CA which would potentially bring a significant amount of precipitation. Irregardless if this feature comes to fruition, there is a solid chance of banding features with atmospheric river characteristics at least north of the Bay Area.
The CPC has noted this with above average precipitation favored during the next 10 days.
