Lengthy detailed read, but I will say, the morning of June 21 felt a lot like it does this morning. Admittedly by this time that day fury had already been unleashed… but the weather felt the same.
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2008 brings back some harsh memories. The Butte Complex was a nightmare to deal with . With the heat , humidity and cloud cover today it has a bad feel to it . For all our sakes I hope we don’t repeat 2008.
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No sign at this point anything similar will occur. I spent 6 weeks in HUU/SRF.
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Forecast models BBQ California on July 4th and there after as strong ridging noses in from the Pacific at the same time surface high pressure builds into the Willamette Valley/Great Basin. The ridge will be driving offshore flow with little to no upper level support so winds do not look strong, but compressional heating from the offshore flow with the ridge overhead will likely lead to an excessive heat warning situation. The heatwave begins around July 2nd and at this point in time being 4-6 days out there should be little change to the overall forecast for excessive heat and dry conditions and several rounds of critical fire weather + elevated haines indexes.
there was a
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Final_June_27_2024_NWS_Release.pdf (33.0 KB)
NWS Hanford statement that forecasts beyond 7 days are not official
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Winds…Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Strongest wind gusts Tuesday morning and along the western
half of the Sacramento Valley into the eastern Coast Range. -
Humidity…Minimum relative humidity of 5 to 15 percent.
Nighttime humidity recoveries will also be very poor in the 15
to 25 percent range.
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Altamont Pass and State 152 Hollister to San Luis Reservoir may see some of that 25+ gusting onshore, too. Maybe, with marginally better rH.
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From NWCG :
*** High Risk for N to NE Winds & Very Low RHs in the Sac Vly/Foothills Mon Night through Wed and Mid Coast Mendocino late Mon Night & Tue with Moderate Risk for Isolated Dry Lightning in the NE Today ***• Troughing over North Ops today will move east as a strong & very dry upper level ridge will build along the coast Mon & Tue then shift inland and remain centered overhead for the remainder of the week.
• Isolated to widely scattered mixed wet & dry thunderstorms this afternoon & evening with strong outflow winds. The most likely area of thunderstorms development is the Mt Lassen convergence zone vicinity including Lassen, Plumas and Washoe Counties with isolated storms also possible in Modoc County and a very slight chance extending into the NW Mtns as well.
• Breezy W-SW to NW winds of 20-30 mph will develop this afternoon & evening favoring coastal gaps and eastern areas with inland Min RHs generally in the teens, 20s, 30s & 40s. Locally breezy N to NE winds of 15-25 mph will develop the Sac Vly and channeled terrain areas along the Cascade/Sierra west slopes tonight and continuing into Mon morning. RH recoveries will be good NW & NE though will remain moderate to locally poor along central & southern slopes & ridges.
• Temps will warm rapidly through the week with Heat Wave conditions from Tue-Sat, widespread poor to very poor overnight RH recoveries and strong thermal belt impacts keeping nighttime temps unusually warm as well.
• NW winds of 20-30 mph will favor western and northern areas Mon afternoon & evening then turn N to NE Mon night locally gusting 25-40 mph and spread south through the Sac Vly and along the Cascade/Sierra west slopes through Tue morning accompanied by rapid drying.
• Gusty northerly winds will continue Tue with RHs dropping to 5-15% across much of North Ops including near coastal areas and continuing to be quite low through much of the rest of the week.
• Breezy NE winds with minimal RH recoveries will return for Tue night through Wed morning with lighter general N to NW winds during the following afternoons, shallow W-SW coastal gap winds in the Greater Bay Area vicinity and more limited N to NE winds through channeled terrain areas during the following nights.
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Scary deal with high heat, low RH and gusty winds…
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Big dip in RH in Vacaville. 34% down to 11%… North winds coming up now.
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I was up in Tahoe over the weekend and got a chance to collect some green vegetation samples at 6,000’, 5,000’, 4,000’, 3,000’, and 1,000’ elevations along Highway 20 on the way home.
I used them this morning for a Lookout wildfire education video this morning about live fuel moisture.
Cliffs Notes: Brush above 3,000’ is pretty much in its peak growing phase right now, has a lot of moisture in it, still. Fires in these areas with a lot of green brush and not a lot of dead fuel (e.g. recent burn scars) will not likely carry very well once they fall out of alignment or run out of slope.
I’ll weigh the samples and dry them to get the actual moisture values for another video - this one is more down and dirty…
https://youtube.com/live/YrRfS6So5EY #firescience
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