From NWCG ~
***** High Risk Mon across the East due to Gusty wind, lowering RH following a Lightning Event *****
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Heightened Heat signature & unusually dry airmass Thu & Fri then followed by a Monsoon Burst event later Fri thru Sat with some residual Sun then some enhanced Wind with lowering RH early next week.
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Temps will continue to warm today, tonight into Fri with an unusually dry airmass settling in, strongest anomalies will be found across the northern tier, some moderate buildups are expected to develop over the NW mtns later today but very little lightning, if any would come from it.
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Intensifying thermal low signature will create an increase in W-SW-S winds Today & Fri with the breeziness favoring NE CA, N. Sierra, Far Eastside, Sac Vly-Foothills and Bay Area PSAs.
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T-storms should start to impact the Greater Lake Tahoe Area and portions of the N. Sierra by mid Fri afternoon and spread north/northwestward, they would initially be drier then trend a little wetter over time.
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Fast moving scattered showers & some embedded, generally isol. t-storms should shift west and northward over the area Fri night, drier activity west and some small wetting footprints east.
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Partial clearing is expected as Sat progresses which will allow t-storms to re-initiate and affect northern & eastern areas with anywhere from isol. (NW Mtns) to scattered (Modoc Plateau & Far Eastside) activity, cells across western areas are likely to be drier compared to the cells on the east side with some moderate footprints of wetting rain across the east.
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Can’t rule out some isol. t-storms across the far N & E favoring OR & NV borders on Sun.
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Areas of W-SW-S breeziness will remain Sat/Sun with downdrafts a concern, especially across eastern areas, RH will fluctuate with some rising values favoring the N & E mtns on Sat then some lowering Sun.
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Partial Ridge break-down pattern due to an Offshore Wave early next week will likely create an enhanced NW-W-SW-S wind flow with drier air filtering in.
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Heat builds back Tue & Wed with a drier airmass in place and wind speeds should eventually lessen by mid week.
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Large fire potential is heightened during the next 7 days due to a mix of Heat, surface dryness, critically flammable fuels, enhanced winds & a quick hitting Monsoon Burst lightning pattern.
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The highest lightning strike count period is expected to be Sat afternoon/evening with plenty of lightning found outside of the main rain cores despite an increasing wetter signal as the event unfolds.
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Heavier smoke & some wetting properties to the cells may mask the initial ignitions across NE CA, Far Eastside and N. Sierra and would be followed by a gustier & drier airmass by early next week which should wake the hold-overs up.
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Dead Fuels will remain critically dry across most of the area during the next 7 days with fluctuations likely during the near & mid term due to either Coastal influences or the Monsoon Burst pattern. Most PSAS should experience ERC values above the 90th percentile for some portion of the next 7 days while some will be above the 90th for the entire time frame.
From NWCG ~
***** High Risk Today & Sat due to Lightning over Flammable Fuels & Resource Drawdown for northern & eastern portions of the area *****
***** High Risk Mon across the East due to Gusty wind, lowering RH following a Lightning Event *****
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Lots of notable fire weather ingredients during the next 7 days.
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Unusually dry & warm Today with areas of W-SW-S breeziness.
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Monsoon Burst ltgn event starts up a little later Today & will last thru Sat with some residual Sun.
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Lightning should occur in 4 diff phases.
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Phase 1: Today mid afternoon/eve favoring N. Sierra & to lesser extent NW mtns…this activity would start out drier with smaller footprints of wetting rain esp. favoring Lake Tahoe area.
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Phase 2: late tonight-am Sat where scattered showers & some embedded t-storms could occur across a fair share of the area but favoring the N & E, this activity would be moderate to fast moving and provide variable rain amounts but generally drier west and a little more moist east.
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Phase 3: brief break & some partial clearing before the main strike count event initiates Sat aft/eve favoring NW Mtn, NE CA, Far Eastside and along/E of the Crest for N. Sierra, variable storm movement but eventually SW to NE at a moderate clip with healthy wetting rain footprints favoring the east.
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Phase 4: residual isolated t-storms far N & E Sun aft/eve with smaller wetting rain footprints.
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Areas of breezy to locally windy W-SW-S winds Sat/Sun with downdrafts a concern, especially across eastern areas, RH will fluctuate with rising values favoring the N & E mtns on Sat then some lowering Sun.
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Offshore Low will nudge on the Building Ridge early next week and likely create an enhanced NW-W-SW-S wind flow with lowering RH while temps trend above normal most areas.
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More Ridging impacts most of next week as the Heat signal builds and the drier airmass takes hold, breeziness will fluctuate and tend to favor Coastal Areas, Modoc Plateau and along/E of Crest.
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Large fire potential is heightened during the next 7 days due to a mix of Heat, surface dryness, critically flammable fuels, enhanced winds (+97th percentile BI’s) and a quick hitting Monsoon Burst lightning pattern.
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The highest lightning strike count period is expected to be Sat afternoon/evening with plenty of lightning found outside of the main rain cores despite an increasing wetter signal as the event unfolds.
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Heavier smoke & some wetting properties to the cells may mask the initial ignitions across NE CA, Far Eastside and N. Sierra but a following gustier & drier airmass by early next week should wake the hold-overs up with high IA likely in the coming days.
Getting some precipitation moving north, lightning is so far up in the higher elevations.
https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy0xMjAuNjYyLDM3LjI5NV0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo3LjIyOTgzMDM4NTQ5MjkyNX0sImFuaW1hdGluZyI6ZmFsc2UsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6ZmFsc2UsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19
From NWCG ~
***** High Risk Today for Abundant Lightning over the N & E combined with Critically Dry Fuels and on Mon across the East for Dry Gusty W** **inds following a Lightning Event *****
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Isolated fast moving, high based thunderstorms with a S-SE to N-NW storm motion mixed in with light showers will continue to be possible this morning as a wave of enhanced mid level moisture and instability lifts north across the area.
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Following partial clearing from S to N midday, more abundant thunderstorm activity with strong outflow wind potential of 40-50 mph will develop along the eastern & northern Mtns this afternoon & evening with isolated thunderstorms along the Mid Coast Mendocino Mtns.
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Thunderstorms over the E & NE will trend wetter this afternoon & evening and contain the highest strike counts though with a brisk S then SW steering flow still making lightning outside the precipitation cores a significant concern.
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Over the NW Mtns scattered thunderstorms will be a mix of wet and dry with more isolated storms further to the south along the Coastal Mtns producing less lightning but remaining on the drier side.
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Thunderstorm activity will taper off by late this evening with only isolated thunderstorm chances lingering in the far N & E Sun afternoon & evening and a rapid warming and drying conditions following.
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Ridging building to the S & E will enhance S to SW winds Sun afternoon & evening with gusts of 20-30 mph favoring the Shasta Vly & NE CA with inland Min RHs falling into the teens & 20s and poor overnight RH recoveries returning to slopes and ridges.
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More widespread gusty W-SW winds through coastal gaps, S-SE winds up the Sac Vly and SW winds from the Cascade/Sierra crest eastward will develop Mon with gusts in the 25-40 mph range in wind prone spots and inland Min RHsfalling into the upper single digit & teens.
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Dry breezy conditions with poor overnight slope & ridge recoveries will continue through the week with temps remaining 5-10 degrees above normal as upper level ridging persists overhead.
From NWCG~
***** High Risk for W** **ind, Very Low RH, & Lightning Holdover Fire Potential Today Across the N Sierras & Far E-side *****
- Poor RH recoveries over & near much of N Sac Valley, across higher terrain around the Sac Valley, & across many mid-upper elevations this morning will mix down this afternoon-evening w/Min RHs single digits to teens W edge of the Sac Valley eastward.
- SW wind gusts 20-30mph likely N Sierras & Far E-side this afternoon-evening as well as gusty W-NW across higher terrain coming in from the coast & across the far N counties, but w/higher RH most W-NW areas.
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Temps 5-15 degrees above normal today thru Sat w/highs in the 100-110 range across lower valley hot spots. Poor RH recoveries likely each night & morning across mid-high terrain inland from the coast into the weekend.
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Thermal troughing strengthening along N Coast & trough passage to the N will bring very dry and breezy N-NE winds to far NW ridges Tue Night through Wed morning.
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Dry, breezy afternoon & evening SW to NW winds continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend w/potential for more enhanced SW winds Fri-Sun. RHs in western areas will see eventual improvements as onshore flow gradually deepens, but RHs likely to remain low in central and eastern areas.
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Cooling conditions & higher RHs likely early next week as low pressure troughing deepens from the NW. Some slight rainfall potential Sun night-next Tue across far NW-N areas.
Good morning 
. From NWCG~
***** High Risk for W** **ind w/Critically Dry Fuels Mid Coast-Mendo & Diablo Santa Cruz Mtns Thu *****
***** High Risk for Wind w/Critically Dry Fuels N Sierras & Far E-side Friday *****
- Poor to very poor RH recoveries over most of N Ops this morning, esp N Sac Valley, Sac Valley Foothills, & higher terrain in & near the bay area will mix down again this afternoon-evening w/Min RHs single digits to teens W edge of the Sac Valley eastward.
- SW wind gusts 15-25 mph likely N Sierras & Far E-side this afternoon-evening as well as gusty W-NW winds across the far N counties.
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Gusts 20-35 mph in SFO Bay to Mt Diablo & Sac River Delta area this afternoon to evening will increase further Thu.
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Temps 5-15 degrees above normal today thru Sat w/highs in the 100-110 range across lower valley hot spots. Poor RH recoveries likely each night & morning across mid-high terrain inland from the coast into the weekend.
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Thermal troughing strengthening along N Coast & trough passage to the N will bring very dry and breezy N-NE winds to far NW ridges Tue Night through Wed morning.
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Dry, breezy afternoon & evening SW to NW winds continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend w/potential for more enhanced SW winds Fri-Sun. RHs in western areas will see eventual improvements as onshore flow gradually deepens, but RHs likely to remain low in central and eastern areas.
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Cooling conditions & higher RHs likely early next week as low pressure troughing deepens from the NW. Some slight rainfall potential Sun night-next Tue across far NW-N areas.
Update… around August 19th (super blue sturgeon moon) we should see the strongest heatwave of the year begin over the West, this is in response to surface high pressure digging into the midwest in conjunction with more tropical cyclone activity on the eastern seaboard, full immersion (landfall) of the warm pool of water off of the West coast, and the seasonal peak of the four corners high pressure system (that has decided it does not want to stay over the four corners this year). We will be entering a new ridging cycle around 8/16 after a prolonged troughing cycle that is starting now. The monsoon is being shunted away due to the troughing, so even though temperatures are going to trend below normal during the next week there is dry air throughout the column and no precipitation.
We need to immediately manifest rain and moisture. We are on a bad timeline.
I’m going to need everyone to go out this evening and do a rain dance then 
.
I’d like to reach an end of the word “Heatwave” soon if possible.
***** High Risk Today thru Sat due to elevated to near record or record BI’s/ERC’s & resource drawdown *****
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N. CA will be caught in a ground hogs day weather pattern with only incremental changes each day from Hot-Dry-Breezy thru Fri, then some moderation during the weekend but remaining Warm-Dry-Breezy then even further moderation in terms of cooler temps and better recoveries earlier half of next week but remaining breezy.
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Dominant Ridging is expected to give way to more Pacific Troughing during the earlier half of next week with Fri thru Sun being the bigger transition period as onshore flow deepens and the Marine Layer becomes deeper and more influential.
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Strongest breezy to locally windy days appear to be Fri to Sun based on model guidance trends.
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High temps near to 12 degrees above normal thru Sun then near avg. earlier half of next week.
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Airmass will remain unusually dry both day & night thru Fri/Sat before incremental moderation occurs due to the deeper onshore flow influences, eastern areas on average will observe the lowest RH readings during the next 7 days.
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Generally a dry forecast although can’t rule out a few buildups across the far north & east today & Fri with a drier strike or two not out of the question today, pretty limited convection signal overall.
Just to reiterate, this is not a dramatization.
Watch this video from NWS San Diego: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqfgTAeFwE0
When Norman Oklahoma (aka the SPC) paints green over any part of Ca its worth watching imo. Tomorrows outlook: Storm Prediction Center Aug 16, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
