It seems to me that the models have backed off on how widespread the thunderstorms will be for tomorrow. It looks western siskiyou county and all of trinity county arenât going to have many thunderstorm if any. Most of the activity looks to be mostly in eastern siskiyou county, modoc county, and the sierras. If you look at the mid level water vapor forecast, there is a pocket of dry air right over the Coastal ranges that I think is wrapping around a very small area of low pressure . While the bulk of the moisture is all in the sierras and northeastern California. I know thunderstorms and where they are going to happen is very hard to predict but it just seems to me that a lot of the models are backing off. Someone please correct me if I am wrong, Iâm just looking at what Iâve got. Also models are picking up on some possible night-time/morning convection that may bring some early morning showers to the foothills of the Sacramento valley.
Yes, the SF AFD mentioned â inhibiting factorsâ. That is the relative lack of moisture at the 700-500 mb level. This means that the moisture may not be thick enough to vertically develop and sustain growth. We could see more low topped clouds that just do not develop.
The HRR does show a complex of moisture moving north up the valley after 6 am. The NAM is not as bullish on that idea. You are correct.. the area that could see the most activity would be the Cascades and the Trinity mountains.
No shortage of RED this a.m. on the 7dayâŚ
Interesting & curious to observe (via GOES flash density) that this 1st slug of moisture/cloudiness is all party in the front & business in the rear - meaning all the flash returns are located in the back of the bus - not the front or flanks⌠
The low was depicted to track right up the valley. The counterclockwise flow will bring moisture down into the valley. The low is moving quickly.. really the first of this sort of system for the season. Rather than a cut off low remaining offshore and keeping temps down.. this one is moving fast with storm motions on the fast side. Sun is out now⌠solar heating occurring and winds are gusty. The winds are not just from the storms..but from the pressure differential as the low moves along. That pressure differential will be enhanced by daily diurnal flow.
Right now the last pulse is moving further into the Sierraâs with less activity in the lower foothills.
With the sun and heat on for a few more days⌠could see quite a few new starts pop up.
Some really appreciate the detailed weather from norcal74 and anvlhead. It makes a big difference in fire behavior forecasting , crew surges , resource depletion. Staffing or IA firefighting. If you choose to fly low level in the wildland business get your weather from channel 7. If want to take it serious and be the best you can be at this challenging job of managing major fires probably a good idea to listen and learn from some of the best in the business. I myself as a student of this business will continue to take in as much info as I can and then apply to this craft. Keep posting norcal74, anvilhead and IMET from hotlist.
The one winner so far.. Root Fire. Increased humidity, no solar heating so far ⌠and no storm development near the fire.. it is behaving!
This likely wont age wellâŚ
Oh dear! That 2nd pulse of moisture & activity booking it up the central sierras / eastside looks to have 2x or more flash density than the 1st. Not liking that one bit!!
Agree.. hence the so far.. they have a narrow window..
Daniel Swain is live, covering the current happenings. https://www.youtube.com/live/nbxFCpMZCPo?si=_3O_HeLpivEEZaA0
Serious outflow boundary coming off the Sierra Crest and down past Foresthill along I-80 and interior El Dorado county. Not seeing may fires in that area but its a likely convergence location for new convection to fire this afternoon.
The storm just cleared us here in Chico, and itâs instantly hotter than hell, outside.
@pyrogeography Fyi, after sunrise the north end of RDD warmed to almost 80âish before the 1st wave of clouds set in. Skies cleared @ approx 1500 and it still managed to hit 102 right now.. Plenty-o-heat for the approaching 2nd wave of clouds to cover. Stuff might get interesting tonite?!
This is not directed at anyone in particular but a good lesson not to count your chickens before they hatch regarding a slow season. It comes down to how the alchemical process plays out and not necessarily the duration.
And perhaps a wee bit of #solarforcing 
Doesnât appear like itâs going to be an interesting night after all, as the lightning activity has greatly diminished, only a few strikes now in the Modoc but thatâs it for the entire state at the moment
Fell asleep to strikes on the eastside (LMU, LNF, NOD) and now waking up to continuing strikes on the eastside. So as usual the level of âinterestingâ can be highly location dependent!