Beautifully typed.
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Agree. Thatâs real writing. Lovely.
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It starts Tuesday night and continues for 10+ days. Enjoy it at home!
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The ridge that has been over the state does look to begin to retract by mid week. Over the weekend a trough which is strong for the season will move into the PNW. This will bring down temps across NOPS. This will not be a dry cold front so no real radical winds. The winds do look to turn NW again which will usher in cooler weather.. but also stronger winds across the state.
The models do not seem to be sure how long the cool down will last. As of this afternoon it looks like a flat ridge will build back in early next week. This will bring temps back to normal.
As Anvilhead pointed out.. the models have all pretty much shown a strong hurricane approaching or making landfall along the eastern seaboard. Over the last 5 days this track has changed dramatically from landfall across Florida and into Alabama to a direct hit on the Carolinaâs to now a glancing blow somewhere around NC or VA.
Why does an Atlantic hurricane matter? The counter clockwise flow around the storm can pump up a ridge to the west. If a weaker ridge forms across the plains states.. better chance of landfall, stronger ridge.. it might stay out at sea.
What is depicted is a slowly strengthening ridge after next weekend and way out in fantasy land⌠maybe a sharp increase in temps thanks to a a strong 4 corners high pushing warm continental air to the west.
I do think the cooldown will bring mixed blessings.. yes cooler but more wind especially for the inland gaps and east side.
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Great. More shitty boat weatherâŚ
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Yeah id like to
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Starting Friday and all thru next weekâŚ.Increasing north-northwest winds could result in a slight increase in temperatures on Friday before gradually cooling over the weekend into early next week. A weak front could deliver scattered showers to northern Humboldt Saturday morning before shifting eastward into elevated portions of the far North, where isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible. There is some potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue across the far North Saturday night through Sunday morning with a slight chance for storms to drift into the northern Sacramento Valley; although, details are still a bit unclear at this time. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms may develop again Sunday afternoon across the elevated North. Elsewhere, the typical, summertime pattern will likely continue through early next week before a possible return to warmer weather late week as high pressure tries to strengthen over the Desert Southwest
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FWIW.. the soundings over the weekend for far NOPS were wet.. still a ways out.
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The weekend is a couple days away, thatâs not far out whatsoever. But okâŚ.
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That is from a weather model perspective.. anything beyond 72 hours is less than 35% accurate. As I have stated before one of the most challenging things to model and forecast is convection, especially in the summer in California.
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This guy 
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Agree on nocturnal convectionâwhat should have been, at the very least, a fire weather watch the day before, turned into a clear example of how challenging it is to predict convectionâespecially of the nocturnal type.
I remember chasing one in late August of 1992 in NEU. Even though the valley was dry and stabilized overnight, a storm still developed.
I was half asleep in the barracks when I heard Cal Star 3 start to mention lightning south of Auburn on the local netâthe radio was still on, and the station loudspeaker outside carried the traffic. It was a hot night, even for Nevada City. Around 0200, I awoke to the sound of thunder and wondered why the storm hadnât petered out like typical midsummer monsoon cells do over the Sierra. A breeze began to pick up, running through the snoring campers. I believe Smartville picked up the first dispatchâsomewhere out over the Spenceville Wildlife Refuge.
This was before cameras, by the way. The lightning seemed to increase to the west of Nevada City, and I knew the quick call would go offâthe buzzer before the digital tone. Just after 0300, we were dispatched to a lightning fire southwest of Lake of the Pines. Sitting on the back of the engine, I could smell the electric air, but not much moisture was wringing up from the tires on the road.
When we arrived, a three-acre grass and oak woodland fire was backing downhill toward the lake. Taking the left flank with an inch-and-a-half line, lightning began to pepper the sky right over our heads. It was breathtakingâfighting a fire guided down the hill and back up again by strobes of white light as we boxed in the fire with water.
Even though the valley was dry and stabilized overnight, a storm still developed.
- Moisture and Lift from Above â There was plenty of moisture higher in the atmosphere, along with upward âpushâ from weather systemsâa closed low-pressure area off the California coast likely helped with this.
- Waves of Rising Motion â Two waves of rising air rotating around that low triggered the moisture to condense and form clouds, even though the surface air was dry.
- Unexpected Storm Formation â In a similar 2002 case, new storms developed over parts of the valley south west of Marysville, Lincoln. These were âelevated thunderstormsââstorms forming from mid-to-upper atmospheric processes, not from surface heating or local terrain.
- Strong Updrafts and Lightning â Forecast models for the 2002 case showed strong upward motion near 15,000 feetâenough energy to overcome the dry surface air. The result was tall storms with overshooting tops and intense lightning, much like the 1992 storm I experienced.
These nocturnal storms are difficult to predict. In the early 1990s, forecasters had far less satellite and lightning detection capability, making them even harder to catch in real time and ECCâs without cameras.
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Up early to see info on the Gifford. Read your post above and it brought me back to my early days in TCU. Thanks for that, the info and the white paper.
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