Eastern Oregon is getting pounded by lightning.
At least 200 lightning strikes so far.
Huge chunk of the state under a Red Flag Warning or fire weather watch.
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Ouch.
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The only ares that are not included is the South Central Oregon Coast and Curry County Coast. Lincoln City and Newport are also out of the current warning area. This just shows how large of an impact these temperatures will have for the entire Pacific Northwest and Northern California.
Those temps with these anticipated ERC’s could make for some interesting fire behavior. These are for area NW4 (Jackson/Josephine Counties)
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An excessive heat watch and a fire weather watch is in effect.
Although the last few dry lightning bursts failed,
Saturday night into Monday look widespread and on the dry side.
PWV at 0.85, trophospheric folding, and 1200 j/kg cape at the surface, and upper levels with the average at 1000 j/kg
Also hot temperatures at the surface. Looks grim
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On Monday night and Tuesday morning a rather strong short wave moves into the OR coast, this provides mid level ascent and forcing, and dries out the low level of the atmosphere. This trigger also increases storm motion and PWV falls to less than 1"
As this shortwave produces convection through Thursday, this should be viewed as high risk days for the Pacific NW for dry lightning strikes.
This is a classic dry thunderstorm sounding. At the 650 mb mark you see the trophospheric folding extending up to 500 mb (30,000 ft). The 700 MB is about where the cloud base begins, very elevated cloud bases. Underneath the cloud bases you see an inverted V where the dew point at the surface is dry and the temperature is nowhere near the dew point temperature.
Mean storm motion is about 25 KTs. The only thing percluding the Storm prediction center form issuing a product on this is the potential for wetting rain today through Sunday.
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