SoCal Wx Update


#1

Good morning. Just a quick update about expected weather for SoCal the next few days.

In the short term, the main story will be the marine layer which will remain deep into early next week. So, low clouds and fog will push well into the coastal valleys each morning with clouds “burning off” to the coast each afternoon. Above the marine influence, things will stay rather dry with relative humidity dropping down into the teens and 20s each afternoon (with good overnight recoveries). At the same time, moderate to strong onshore flow will continue across the area, generating the typical gusty afternoon/evening winds across the mountains and deserts. So, elevated fire weather conditions will persist across the mountains and deserts into the first half of next week.

For the second half of next week (and next weekend), things are still forecast to get more interesting. Computer models are still forecasting a very strong upper-level high pressure system to build over the desert Southwest. As this pattern develops, hot and dry conditions will develop over SoCal. The hottest days will likely be next Friday and Saturday with inland areas in the mid 90s to low 100s and even the coastal areas in the 80s to lower 90s. With the hot temperatures, relative humidity will drop into the teens and even likely some single digit readings. The combo of the hot and dry conditions along with typical onshore winds will likely generate elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions next week.

One thing that will need to be watched very closely the second half of next week will be the forecast strengthening of northerly surface pressure gradients across SoCal by Friday and Saturday. So, there is the definite potential for some gusty Sundowner winds across Santa Barbara county and north winds through the I-5 corridor. These north winds, combined with the hot and dry conditions, could result in some significant fire weather issues. Obviously, this is a long way out there, but it definitely is a situation that will need to be watched closely.

So, stayed tuned to the latest forecasts from the NWS and GACC.

Be safe out there!!!

Wx_Guy


#2

Wx_Guy! Seriously missed you!! I cannot express how valuable your updates are. Thank you!


#3

Yes! Glad to see you here Wx_Guy. Your posts are always interesting and informative. Most of all they help us all be more aware of how much the weather matters in this business.
Hopefully your colleagues at other NWS posts will soon re-join the discussions.


#4

Agree. Just in time for timely and accurate wx intel. Thanks!