South Ops Weather-2023

California & Hawaii Hotlist Questions and Discussion
#337

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Magic Mountain truck trail recorded a maximum gust of 130 MPH.
Due to the actual cold front under-performing and washing out as it moved into the area, there is a chance that fire weather concerns return after the upcoming heat wave through Thursday. Some areas recorded as little as .20" of rain, and this would mean that about a week of drying brings us back to fire weather concerns in localized to regional areas. Forecast models are suggesting a significant trough moving into the Great Basin around 11/25, and as we get more data points it could manifest as a strong offshore wind event on models soon. In fact, the presence of the core of the upper level low and low level moisture on the lee side of the mountains could drive mountain wave activity for the next one.

A reminder that current fire weather conditions overrides fuel status.

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SPC Outlook

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#338
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#339

It’s 71 degrees and 23 rH at my house in Huntington Beach. Still some wind, but very warm and dry.

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#340
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#341

The Fire Weather Snooper this morning.

20231121 0558 Fire Weather Snooper 11x17 Land 300dpi
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#342

Moon over Sonora
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Almost a full moon raising over Sonora on a cool evening with the sun starting to set.
56 out, no clouds, no smoke just a gorgeous day in the motherlode. Going to be a chilly one tonite woodstove already cranking. Christmas right around the corner, this year flew by quickly.

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#343
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#344
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#345

From the San Diego NWS Discussion this morning for upcoming weekend.

For Friday onward, offshore flow looks to return as another area of high pressure aloft builds in from the Eastern Pacific. This favors another multi-day round of Santa Anas as well as another warming trend that pushes daily highs roughly 5-10 degrees warmer than normal. EPS and CW3E guidance currently support a more moderate Santa Ana event on Sat/Sun across areas susceptible to easterly winds, so namely across more of the Riverside and San Diego County mountains and foothills as opposed to the San Bernardino County mountains. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this weekend’s Santa Anas will be as ensemble spread at Campo, per the EPS, is anywhere from peak gusts near 30 mph to as high as 60-70 mph at times

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#346

SoOpsPredServ_OutlookAssessment~Dec23-Mar24~01dec23.pdf (1.1 MB)

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#347
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#348

RFW up for parts of LA Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, & Ventura counties

National Weather Service San Diego CA
1238 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

CAZ248-090600-
/O.UPG.KSGX.FW.A.0001.231209T1800Z-231210T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KSGX.FW.W.0001.231209T1600Z-231210T2300Z/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys - The Inland Empire-
1238 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR the
Inland Empire…

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong gusty winds and low relative humidity, which
is in effect from 8 AM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday. The Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

  • WINDS…Northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 50 mph. Locally
    stronger gusts are likely below the Cajon Pass.

  • RELATIVE HUMIDITY…10 to 15 percent Saturday and 8 to 12
    percent Sunday.

  • IMPACTS…Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
    Outdoor burning is not recommended.

  • LOCATION…San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys -The
    Inland Empire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now…or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds…low relative humidity…and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

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#349
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#350

A compact upper level low is forecast to traverse the eastern deserts mid next week, and this will provide a renewed chance of offshore winds and critical fire weather conditions.

From a climatological stand point, the end of December and early January can bring the strongest winds of the year to Southern California… however it is typically after wetting rainfall ends fire season. With the dry and warm weather at present, it is worth watching ever little kink in the jet stream through this peak in windy season.

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#351
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#352
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#353

Good Morning South Ops, Merry Christmas on this great looking Christmas morning in Sonora.
37 out when pic was taken. Looks like they were busy with the Chem trails this morning. Wishing all of you the Best today.

Chistmas morning 2023
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#354
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#355
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#356

11 posts were merged into an existing topic: South Ops Weather - 2024