South Ops Weather-2023

[anvilhead]

Forecast models bring a strong Santa Ana wind event to Southern California Saturday night into Sunday. This will be a classic NE wind event that favors typical Santa Ana prone locations. LAX-DAG gradients reach -7 and LAX-BFL gradients reach -4.5 for an average of about -5.6, which would put this wind event in the 90th percentile for this date.

There will be good upper level support as a significant upper level trough traverses the deserts, along with cold air advection… so this will be an event with temperatures mainly in the 70’s. Critical fire weather conditions are likely below 3000 feet, especially on southern slopes that have been dried by the lower fall sun angle.

With no major fire activity this year in south ops and a significant grass crop due to TS Kay, the risk of exposures and spotting could be higher this year. It will likely take 1-2 more Santa Ana wind events for higher elevations to reach receptivity for large fire activity.

[MVUFirePhotographer]

High Wind Watch just issued from then NWS office in San Diego for very large area of the southland.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ050&warncounty=CAC073&firewxzone=CAZ250&local_place1=San%20Marcos%20CA&product1=High+Wind+Watch&lat=33.1415&lon=-117.1676

[Flyron]

Santa Ana winds to blow through Southern California Sunday, Monday

Santa Ana Winds to Blow Through Inland Region Sunday, Monday

[FireCapt]

[anvilhead]

[TheBrushSlasher]

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HNX&wwa=fire%20weather%20watch

[Flyron]

Santa Ana winds spike wildfire danger in Southern California this weekend

[FireHawkC3100]

NWS LA Fire Weather Snooper

[FireHawkC3100]

NWS San Diego Fire Weather Snooper
’

[ghost7]

“Negative Birthday”

Updated at 9 AM Sunday–Southern California Edison has put almost 60,000 of its Ventura County customers on notice they might have their power shut off as the Santa Ana winds arrived early Sunday morning.

As of 9 AM Sunday power had been shut off to 56 Edison customers spread around the county.

There were also reports of some light poles and trees downed in some area including the Oxnard plain.

A Red Flag Warning and a High Wind Warning are in effect for much of Ventura County until Monday at 10 PM.

The National Weather Service in Oxnard says between midnight Saturday night and 6 AM Sunday morning peak winds ranged from 70 miles an hour on Boney Mountain in the Santa Monica Mountains in Ventura County above Pacific Coast Highway and 35 miles an hour at the Simi Valley Landfill (see the entire list at the bottom of this story).

In addition to the strong winds, humidity levels will drop into single digits.

That will create critical conditions that could turn a small vegetation fire into something much larger.

The winds could also start a wildfire if they cause power lines to ignite nearby vegetation, thus the Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) by Edison to de-energize lines in specific areas during the most critical periods.

Here is a link to Edison’s site regarding potential PSPS areas in the region Check Outage Status

There is also a map just below the headline on this page.

More Than 42,000 Ventura County Edison Customers On Notice For Potential Power Cutoffs As Santa Ana Winds Arrive » News Talk 1590 KVTA

[ghost7]

Ventusky HRRR forecast for Mon Oct 30 10am.

It looks like the SoCal Santa Ana event will continue for another 36hrs, or so.

Ventusky HRRR forecast for Tue Oct 31 10am.

…and attenuate by Tuesday afternoon.

Aaarrrhhh, mateys.

[anvilhead]

I think if there is a lore to this extended period of Santa Ana winds, dry weather, and warming temperatures is that there’s 10 seconds on the clock and it’s throwing a Hail Mary at fire season this year. The prolonged dry weather through early November should eventually lead to receptivity in all fuels. The next Santa Ana wind event could occur around 11/9 to 11/11. Red Flag warnings will likely be needed for all areas for the next one.

[Flyron]

High Winds, Fire Weather Forecast Across IE Through End Of October

Up To 90 Mph Winds Slam SoCal With More To Come Monday

Crews battle brush fires in Southern California sparked by winds, red flag...

[pyrogeography]

John Fischer just shared this website with me. Unlike the NWS pages which calculate RFW criteria based on winds and RH, this tool incorporates current fuel moistures. As such, it is not showing any major fire potential with the current system.
https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/psp/sawti

[ffviking]

Great morning for a hike. The Bonus is a great sunrise. Temp 48, No wind, RH 23 leaf litter and grass crunchy this morning. Control burns all over the place helps make for a great pic when the sun rises.
Maybe next week some showers in the forecast for Twain Harte/Sonora area.

[Flyron]

SoCal Peak Winds

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SGX&issuedby=SGX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

[anvilhead]

Potentially moderate Sundowner wind event Tuesday into Wednesday.

WRF-NAM peaks LAX-BFL gradients at -5.6 with solid upper level support and cold air advection. Global models balk at the strength at the moment, this event will transition to a Santa Ana wind event Wednesday into Friday.

Perhaps the model strength is limited by equally strong northerly and easterly gradients.

[Ehoss84]

The European & GFS have been all over the place the last 48-72 with each model run. But each model run keeps backing off slightly each time. If I had to bet, it’s a inside slider looking at the central sierras and the forecasted winds.

[anvilhead]

We are on track for a moderate Santa Ana wind event. Appears to be a wind advisory type of day.

[Corey6288]

Just got my friendly SCE phone call saying they may shut the power off Wed & Thursday