Is there really lightning predicted for this week in southern Oregon? Predictive services is saying there is but I’m not finding that anywhere else?
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Thunderstorms are mentioned in the NWS Medford Area Forecast Discussion:
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Strong high pressure over Oregon, and strong high pressure over Texas is leading to an incredible split flow pattern over the US. In the next few days, the strong high pressure system over the Pacific NW will come crashing down like a wave breaking. Strong onshore flow will likely promote critical fire weather conditions, and the shortwave that moves in on Monday will likely promote fast moving thunderstorms with lightning start potential in heavy fuels. Rainfall is expected but the fast moving nature of storms could lead to a lot of holdover fires. A deeper trough at the end of next week could really ramp up wind speeds. A myriad of fire weather concerns will persist as fuels continue to become receptive.
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All of the following has occurred and several lightning fires are growing today with the drier conditions and onshore winds. As we move ahead, onshore winds through Friday, followed by warming conditions this weekend through early next week, followed by the potential major ridge breakdown as a trough interacts with Franks remnants mid to late next week could push a fire situation for the Pacific NW that is unparalleled time immemorial.
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