Hurricane Nora is moving into the Gulf of California.
Forecast models have little to no experience forecasting the track the storm is taking, and they are struggling with intensity guidance. It is hugging the west coast of Mexico and then going to bend to the left up the Gulf of California.
If the core of the storm stays off of land it could strengthen into a major hurricane, and NHC hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate the storm later this afternoon.
Regardless, heavy rain appears very likely for the SW… especially Central AZ next week.
These current 7 day estimates are conservative as it does not take into consideration the storm core holding together into Sonora.
The core interest here is that whenever an eastern pacific tropical cyclone moves into the Gulf Of CA before reaching AZ is the core of the storm impacts Baja, which weakens the storm rapidly. Nora will not be moving over Baja and will most likely be threading the needle so that the core of the storm stays over the water without disruption except for the outer bands.