When FIRIS flew it about 18:15, they showed it still on east side of Raker Peak, about 5 miles from Manzanita Lake, but it had pushed about 6,000 acres today, they said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were long-range spots. CalTopo shows winds going the other direction, though.
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You really gotta watch out using MODIS or VIIRS on days with big runs. heat in the column devils them heavy. Think it’d be good practice on this site to seek confirmation from a second source before anyone posts anything based soley on intel from those satellites beyond initial attack or first location of something remote. The web is full of false alarms from this stuff, think we can do better.
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At least 2 of those Modis hits are less than 50% confidence and even 100% you need to take with a grain of salt.
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I’d say not just here, but I’m noticing a LOT more embedded map portals on mainstream media sites and arcgis official evac maps with the modis/viirs data layer on, both places where a LOT of civilan eyes are looking and not realizing the context of what is being seen.
Sometimes modis/viirs is spot on exact, and I think the first few days of Dixie and some others they were. People correlate that luck (no leaning column, near perfect alignment with sensors, etc) with continuous 100% accuracy.
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I think it is good policy to seek out confirmation before posting anything based only on Modis or VIIRS unless it doesn’t matter if it’s off a mile or two. For example, MODIS is handy after a lightning bust to see there are 4 fires taking off in the Ishi Wilderness or something. But on a going fire, I think it’s good policy not to use them to announce a fire has crossed a road, is into a neighborhood, or has passed some other sort of trigger point.
I got a lot of panicked inquiries when fire looked like it was over Highway 36 and headed to Lake Almanor Peninsula. And the MODIS showed fire all over Meyers and Christmas Valley, I believe. Even traditional night IR can be off and requires some interp. The maps I posted of Christmas Valley last week showed fire into the neighborhoods on 3 different flights when there was none. Everything requires a skeptical eye, and perhaps a call to a friend on the ground if you are going to hang your hat on it.
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My KML files for 20210908:
Any word on how old station is looking???
Evacuation order issued by the sheriff for Old Station about 5 minutes ago.
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The most recent IR at 16:45 showed fire still inside the box on the NW side of the fire, and starting to strain at the bit on the north end, with some spots outside the dozer lines on north side of West Prospect Peak.
From The Lookout - 9/8/2021, 7 pm.
Here is updated IR mapping from 4:45 pm this afternoon.
There is about 3,500 acres of new spread since 8 pm last night, shown in purplish-red with yellow outline. For the most part, fire was still in the 2012 Reading Fire (blue) footprint at 4:45, but there were some spots taking off outside the perimeter and across dozer lines on the NW flank of West Prospect Peak. There was no new growth on SE side of fire on this afternoon’s IR.
Looking south over West Prospect Peak. 4:45pm, 9/8/2021.
Looking west over Raker Peak, 4:45pm, 9/8/2021.
Earlier photos and commentary here: Dixie Fire – 9/8/2021 Heat Maps – The Lookout
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Mandatory evac Old Station & 89 closed at Wilcox Rd… Not good at all - the mess continues. This one was bound to happen and most of us who know that area were keeping fingers crossed that it wouldnt… Be safe y’all!
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Established across 44 east of the Rim Overlook.
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There’s a massive pyrocumulus head visible from either Chester or on the Butt Lake cam. Aerial activity over the past few days has been pretty intensive - a half-dozen MAFFs and multiple DC-10s at a time making a constant circuit.
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It’s putting out a little of lightning.
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Next stop - Ladder Butte and/or Pitville Hwy and/or Blacks Mtn and/or Mtn Home, etc…
P.s. Alerts just went out for evac of blackmtn, blacks gulch, Wilson spr Rd. The smoke plume is rolling sw to nw south of FRM (Fall River Mills).
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I seriously think this thing will push for Burney or Alturas. It’s just insane.
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Is it just me or does it seem like this age of mega fires are really just connecting all the dots - and using WUI, old scars & treated areas as receptive fuel beds for spotting! You kno we (usfs) promised in all those NEPA docs that flames would be less than 4’ & fire fighter safety would be improved after we did the work! All the “treatments” us & private have done is set the table for mother nature to finish the job in her own terms… Am i crazy or???
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Word! It could easily romp across the Thousand Lakes Wilderness into the Burney basin and even cook down to Shingletown, Whitmore, Latour State Forest… Lets hope it doesnt. (Yes i kno hope isnt a plan) As for a plan lets stop putting fire on the ground - just a thought…
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I’m thinking the next stop, Fall River Mills with the current alignment. It’s going to run the Hat Creek Rim and the basin in the old Lost Fire scar and head thata way.
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