IMHO nobody is being blameful or questioning “the plan”! The truth is the plan did fail, even in the utmost respect and agreement to that plan. The fire jumped and moved. In this weather environment it’s throw everything at it and hope it sticks and works. My hats off to everyone battling this monster and with much respect. Looks like the current weather forcast holds little hope of slaying this monster anytime soon. Stay safe and keep battling!
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With the stronger onshore winds today and tomorrow the number one plan for today should be for life safety.
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If the plan failed in the sense you mean, it begs the question which plan would have succeeded? And by that I mean which plan that could be implemented on Day 1 of the IA, with the knowledge, modeling, resources available, etc. If the best we can do falls short of what we would like, that really is a reason to start talking about where we are right now and where we are heading. Neither blame nor defensiveness are useful, imho 
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After the fire beat up my plan, ate my lunch, and handed my butt back to me on June 27, 2007, on the Angora Fire, the LA Times quoted me stating what most folks in operations know, “When Mother Nature’s in charge you find out how small you are.”
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A change in weather!
At this point, weather is what needs to change. Asking what we need to “ beat this monster” has a slight, even if unintentional, tone of fault.
Another important aspect that needs to be recognized, this isn’t the only fire. We don’t have unlimited resources.
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I think you might want to do some studying on how resource ordering works. An incident doesn’t just “demand” whatever they want or need, and expect to get it. Resources are almost always limited in some way…by pure quantity, proximity, availability and a number of other reasons, most notably, in this case, by competing demand. People may “demand” resources, but there are also other demands on the system as well.
There is a chain of command and support that prioritizes where limited resources go. Resources need to be rested, repaired, resupplied and then reassigned. All of these things are considered, and re-prioritized, repeatedly each day.
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An eyedropper of water will quell most fires when they start, so it’s a race with time to get sufficient extinguishing agents to the fire before it becomes unmanageable. CalFire used to have a policy of trying to have aircraft on the fire within 20 minutes of ignition. I’m not certain how that policy is holding up with all the additional air support that has been added over the years. Fire stations are placed around the state so that a response with ground crews can be timely. Over the years I’ve heard a lot of stations get shut down or lose an engine. I no longer know if the ground strength of our initial attack force is commiserate with what is needed. CalFire has many models to take from to decide what is the proper response levels to apply to changing times. Whether they get the support for making needed changes is always up to politicians that have to be educated. Lately, I hear a lot of the downstaffing of inmate camps because Newsome has decimated the recruitment pools of candidates and is releasing a lot of prosecuted people that would have been used as a labor pool for handcrews. All various factors that affect the State’s response. Money doesn’t seem to be an issue and it once was, but preallocating it rather that after-the-fact allocating seems to be a barrier not yet resolved correctly. Just some thoughts.
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Mod-Note:
Back to the Dixie fire everyone. Sounds like some people would like to have a private conversation, or a separate thread to discuss this.
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Has anyone run an WFA through technisylva? I would be curious to what the outcome shows if nothing was done since the start Of the fire.
Don’t blow me up, it’s just a model and I’m not suggesting we leave fires unattended, just curious. I’d do it myself but I’m not that smart. 
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Looking at the flir images it looks like it is inside LAW on the western side. Can anyone confirm that?
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If it helps, this morning at the briefing, they said that as of last night, they had stopped it at the dozer line right at the edge of LAW and that no homes had been damaged
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Hi do you have any info about Maidu st or osprey st? A friends parents are very close to loosing their house . Thanks
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I grew up in paradise and spent 10 years in susanville. I feel the same way you do watching this.
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Fantastic shot. Those lenticular clouds forming at the top …
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Looks like the predicted weather has arrived - ugh…
Some long-range spotting happening
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Can someone post scanner link? Thanks
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Excellent post.
Only one for up there…focused on the eastside
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Per CHP, fire has jumped 89 North of LAW. They are also hard closing 36 at St Bernard lodge.
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