Smoke showing on the Mt.Madonna cam. Can’t find a scanner link.
Intel? Looks to be wind aligned with topography
http://www.alertwildfire.org/southeastbay/index.html?camera=Axis-MtMadonna&v=fd40742
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They lost the Estrada VMP. Not much Intel other than fixed wing, rotary wing, and 2 immediate need strike teams enroute.
Being run on CZU Local, CDF tac 4, AG 3.
Edit: add CDF tac 6 to the incident.
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Mandatory evac on mt. Madonna
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Local news chopper is over it . Live News Stream: Watch KTVU FOX 2 click on SkyFox - SF. Feed is somewhat intermittent.
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Please utilize this thread for questions and discussion that are RELEVANT to the incident at hand. If there is objection to a post, there are tools to be utilized to notify Mods.
Lastly, please let us not start down a finger pointing road. Feel free to start a general discussion
( tastefully ) about WFU and VMP or tag on to others created in the past.
Carry on.
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Any idea if the 40 includes the original burn?
Per the Cal Fire Press Release, original burn was supposed to be 20 Acres
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KTVU chopper ran out of gas. ABC7 now on it.
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CZU Unit Social Media says 150ac now
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I hope they put the stop on it.
My first instinct was to poke fun at cal fire but that’s not productive.
I just want to say these things are going to happen if we are going to really manage fuels in California. Aggressive prescribed fire is needed and we need to accept that a certain percentage will escape planned containment.
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Yes. Agree and we should be continuously telling this to the public. It’s something the public should understand as a possibility as long as we continue to expand/create WUI.
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I saw a lot of why were they burning in weather like this. You had winds down south does not mean you had winds in SZU. Do not know what the forecast was for that area yesterday. Usually Burns fallow a prescription protocol and that burn needs to stay in. They got a few extra acres and nothing burned down and to my knowledge no one got hurt accept for pride. Damn if you do, damn if you don’t. Fuels are very receptive even in these shorter and cooler days. No one wants to lose a burn no matter how small, it’s unfortunate it happened.
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I pulled the spot forecast from the spot forecast monitor (see link). Hard to know without seeing the prescription or knowing the fuels, but nothing crazy was in the forecast.
Estrada Ranch VTP
Prescribed Fire
Forecast Start Time:2021-10-15 9:00 AM PDT
Request Time: 2021-10-14 3:40 PM PDT
Deliver Time: 2021-10-14 5:00 PM PDT
Forecast Complete At: 2021-10-14 4:29 PM PDT
Spot Forecast for Estrada Ranch VTP…CALFIRE SAN MATEO-SANTA CRUZ-CZU
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
429 PM PDT Thu Oct 14 2021Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 PDT on October 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative…contact the National Weather
Service..DISCUSSION…Mild and dry conditions are expected at the burn
site heading into the weekend. A prevailing offshore flow
component will prevail over the region, but at the burn site
offshore flow may ease each afternoon and flip to onshore. Winds
will not be overly strong..FRIDAY…
Sky/weather…Sunny.
Temperature…60 at ignition…Max 75-80.
RH…30-40 percent at ignition…Min 16-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)…Winds northeast at 3-6 mph at
ignition…otherwise East winds 5 to 10 mph
shifting to the southwest late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height…800 ft AGL at ignition…otherwise 3500-4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds…Northeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting
to the west 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon..FRIDAY NIGHT…
Sky/weather…Clear.
Temperature…Min 60.
RH…Max 35-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)…West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the north
early in the evening, then shifting to the east
overnight.
Mixing height…Less than 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds…West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast
overnight..SATURDAY…
Sky/weather…Sunny.
Temperature…Max 75-80.
RH…Min 20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)…East winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming
light winds, then becoming southwest 5 to 10
mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height…4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds…Northeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south
late in the morning, then shifting to the west
around 10 mph late in the afternoon.$$
Forecaster…M_MEHLE
Requested by…Andrew Hubbs
Type of request…PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2119503.0/MTR
.DELDT 10/14/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
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Wonder what the fuel stick was…
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Got the link to the IAP?
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