NWS 3:17am: RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY Dangerously hot daily high temperatures between 100 and 115 degrees Fahrenheit for the valleys, 90 to 100 degrees at mid elevations, and 80 to 90 degrees in the mountains.
Fort Jones 1 Cam 15min Timelapse shows very active fire with three distinct columns and a decent east wind on it. Very active day ahead!
From InciWeb:
The McKinney Fire has grown significantly as winds from late evening thunderstorms kept the fire active through the night. Runs on the north and south sides of the fire occurred.Current estimated acreage is at 18,000 acres.Firefighters were forced to shift from an offensive perimeter control effort to evacuations, point protection and structure defense. Numerous resources from multiple agencies are committed to this fire, and additional resources continue to arrive. A California Incident Management Team is in-briefing in Yreka today and will be taking control of the fire on Sunday morning.Another day of very active fire behavior is anticipated with very hot temps in the forecast. A red flag warning is in effect for lightning. Fire managers are expecting a very dynamic day on the fire as predicted weather is expected to be problematic for the firefighters.
MCKINNEY Extended frequencies
Air Tactics 166.600
Air/Grounds 167.0625 and 166.9375
Rotor Vic 118.725
“Normally” this country develops an inversion that lifts later in the day. Timelapse on Antelope Mt Cam at sunrise shows we are in a very different situation. Tough night. Even tougher days to come.
FIRIS at 1145am, 29.6k acres
Also to give a perfect example of relying on VIIRS only which can be wildly inaccurate with massive pyrocb, which @pyrogeography was suspicious of…
29,600 acres, as of noon.
Radar is showing large T-Storm formation over the fire area in about an hour… as if it needs to be said, “heads on a swivel”
Caltopo map I have posted zoomed out: (refresh this every hour or two for better heat mapping)
FYI- Smoke columns may present false heat signatures and these maps are behind by 2-3 hours.
Hopefully next orbit has less error. Better perimeter data out there for now. Firemappers site has an 1145am perimeter.
Some updates from 1800hrs 209 report. ***Note: Take with a grain of salt at this stage of an incident this size, also note that the ICS 209 is not a “wildland incident” specific reporting form but an “all risk” ICS form so some of the information descriptions may not make 100% sense:
30,000 Acres @ 1% Contained, 508 personnel assigned
Observed Fire Behavior:
Fire continues to move with high ROS driven by strong winds, steep slopes, short and long range spotting. High temperatures, poor RH recovery and low fuel moistures allowed burning conditions to continue through the nighttime hours. Fire has also been burning through the 2014 Beaver fire scar due to available fuels.
Primary Fuel Model/Hazard Info:
Thundercell development last night contributed to extreme ROS and increased spotting distances. ERC’s are above the 97th percentile.
Public Status Summary:
1,313 persons evacuated
Life Safety/Health Status:
Evacuations in effect for the Highway 96 corridor, communities of Oak Knoll, Klamath River from Interstate 5 to the town of Seiad. Vital communication, water and phone infrastructure immediately threatened. Point protection and structure defense operations on- going along the Highway 96 corridor. Red Flag warnings for thunderstorm and dry lightning in the fire area. Strong gusty outflow winds with associated high temperatures and single digit RH have driven fire behavior.
Weather Concerns:
Red Flag conditions for lightning continue into Sunday 7/31
Projected Incident Activity:
12-24hrs - Point protection, structure defense operations continue along the Highway 96 corridor, Beaver
Creek community. Scouting opportunities for indirect/direct line construction as fire moves in 12 hours: all directions. Fire has progressed to Collins Badly lookout in the south, and Deadwood Baldy
Peak on the east flank. FIre will continue to move west towards Horse Creek and north into the 2014 Beaver Fire scar towards Round Mountain.
Critical Resource Needs:
7-Type 1 or 2IA crews, 7-Type 3 Engine Strike Teams, 7-DIVS, 7-TFLD, 9-HEQB, 4-FELB, 6-Type 2 dozers, 5-Watertenders
Strategic Discussion
FIre is located in area with no fire current fire history south of Highway 96 and is being driven by extreme fire weather conditions of Red Flag warnings for thunderstorm development and dry lightning, single digit RH and high temperatures. Strong outflow winds and diurnal winds up and down canyon have contributed to fire spread. Continue with structure defense while scouting for opportunities for effective direct and indirect lines construction. Beaver Fire (2014) scar continues to carry fire through the receptive fuel bed.
Planned Actions for Next Op Period:
Continue with point protection, and structure defense. Scout indirect line locations where resources can be effective. Look for opportunities to go direct where fuels, topography allow.
CalTopo MODIS+VIRS 1946hrs 7/30:
From NIROP log of last night IR the fire is at 51,791 Acres. That is an increase of 21,791 from their last flight.
New mapping from about 12:25 am. Details and commentary on The Lookout.
https://the-lookout.org/2022/07/31/mckinney-fire-7-31-2022
