CA-KRN/SQF-BOREL 2024???

[IMT_Geek]

That is a question that should probably be left to those that are working the incident as fire behavior analysts and Incident Meteorologists. So much has to do with the wind and terrain, but if you look you can see how it has been moving and draw some rough ideas of where it might go next. However, it has done some things that most folks have not previously experienced.

There are a significant number of well seasoned firefighting experts on this site that contribute very valuable information and intelligence. But they will not/should not provide predictions or make broad or inflammatory statements that are not backed up by vetted data. Doing so can cause un-needed concern or even panic - and that is not the intention of this site.

This site is not Facebook or X and is monitored to ensure a high quality of intelligence and historical information of value to current managers.

[Buffalohead]

My reply isn’t meant to create worry for anyone there. Fire in that area can do crazy things, as was seen during the Piute fire in 08, and Bodfish in 84. I’m 1300 miles from there, so I don’t know what the weather is doing today or this week. Things happened during the Erskine fire that most wouldn’t have predicted, and I hope never happen again. IMT Geek has more experience in the lake area than most, and his wisdom is appreciated!

[IMT_Geek]

Nooo, not taken that way. I always appreciated when the dust would settle and I’d hear the dozer idle down and you would appear from the dust. You have great experience. In my mind yours was perfect. What I was worried about is someone without the on the ground experience or historical perspective to chime in. There have been some posts by others that I would consider on the edge, primarily from lack of experience or fire behavior knowledge . You are pretty much spot on and like you stated, this fire has done some moves neither of us have seen on many of the area’s previous fires. The Rankin fire (1970) went straight south all the way to Caliente, many others go north, this one is East/southeast. Take your pick.

…And I remembered him from being a dozer swamper a long - long time ago!

[Buffalohead]

I was sick when I heard it took out Havilah. We both know that area has weird behavior, and then along comes the monsoon and we play a new game of flood control down the hill. But that wasn’t me making noise with a dozer, I was either hitting rocks with tools or pumping tons of water.

[Firedude52]

Looking from the l Rancho cam in Tehachapi you can see what looks like 2 headers, one on each end developing. Burning candles at each end today?!

[ecc911]

Thx GW- ECC

[Buffalohead]

Can we use those initials here🤣?

[Dozer_Keith]

Let’s keep the comments relevant to this incident only please

[Firedude52]

Note! Per the NWS

The Red Flag Warning currently in effect for the southern Sierra Nevada has been extended through 11 PM Monday evening and now includes the Kern County mountains around the Tehachapi area.

[logchief1]

Would be nice to get a NIROPS IR in the mornings. Are they using something else instead. I know they’re stretched thin and priorites get set.

[simiweather]

it seems C-130 MAFFs are assigned to the fire. Do the MAFF modules need specialized equipment to reload? They appear to be returning to Pt Mugu NAS. Per Xwitter, it’s now over 49K acres.

[Ehoss84]

Yes,
They require an industrial sized air compressor to charge the system.

[E19eng1]

Does this fire have a possibility of hotting stallion springs?

[logchief1]

Not a chance of getting to the Tehachapi area

[KernDesert]

Last year Channel Islands/Mugu upgraded their equipment and capacity to 50,000 gal to be able to have quicker turn arounds for the MAFFS. This makes them perfect for these fires, 1 on fed lands (the MAFFS module is USFS equipment utilized by the 4 units) and 2. The location of Mugu to these fires is about 20-25 mins from wheels up to putting the pinks stuff on the ground. (Best case scenario). Even if going they are put in a holding pattern the turn around time is still great.

How the Air Force Uses C-130s to Fight Wildfires

This video was filmed earlier this year when all 8 were in Mugu getting certified.

[FFMedic1371]

https://fb.watch/tCNIEtaFGc/
Briefing from ops

[1Windyone]

flames crested Hooper Hill app 30 minutes ago.

[Firedude52]

Update from Inciweb:

Moderate to rapid fire spread will continue to move to the east and north potentially impacting structures and infrastructure in the Bodfish, Moreland Mill, and French Meadow area. Movement to the south will impact Walker Basin.

A Red Flag Warning will continue for the fire area until 11 p.m.

[Firedude52]

Jul 29, 9:14 AM

Four large air tankers (LATs) and two very large air tankers (VLATs) requested by air attack. The fire is 53,010 acres