When I said they are released every night- its not because they don’t fly at night, its because they are a region wide resource, so they are assigned based on requests by the ATGS( we don’t use Airco anymore) or based on new incidents breaking…
Only fixed wing, rotor wing can stay assigned
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The pepperwood east cam will be interesting to watch as these winds materialize as the camera is in the direct path now of the projected path of fire spread
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Do you happen to have a map or resources to show the projected path of fire spread?
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I’d say a combination of the evac maps, and wind direction maps.
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I think it’s safe to assume the evac map is a reflection of the worst case scenario fire behavior prediction modeling
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It is probably because the road system through there is pretty narrow and most paths out lead into the direction of the potential fire so the trigger would have to be pulled very early if it was to head that direction.
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I would not give currently available fire behavior modeling that much credit.
Especially with this kind of wind and potential for spotting.
The models simply do not even approach such difficult problems with any empirical (observation based) foundation.
I believe and I hope it is, – as IAP’s always say-- “Provide for Public Safety.”
Safety Fire.
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Our strike team is inbound. Any info on the fires behavior, weather, and fuels anyone can pass on?
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Yeah fire still burning and lots of wind… way more than SoCal seen
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Any idea how much ground it has covered today? I read the IAP and see the winds are going to be nuts. What is the main fire area oak and grass land?
Rolling hills with some steep drainages with oaks, grasslands, and some heavy brush. A good amount of poison oak mixed in there. It may also blow across flatlands with large swathes of vineyard. If it does blow into habited areas expect a lot of structure defense. Healdsburg has a lot of older single family homes with a few recent additions of apartments. Windsor has built up mostly in the past 20-30 years. Lots of condos, townhouses, old and new industrial. Wineries all over the place.
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Obviously the weather conditions you posted are cooler than what was observed during the peak part of the day, and the upcoming winds could change everything. But as a reference to how weather conditions can translate to fire effects, those observations you posted are exactly what we were aiming for to get good underburns in tanoak stands two weeks ago on the Klamath.
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Fireeater17,
Check out the “continuing fires” thread on this fire. There’s updates including this screen shot. There is also posts saying the evacuation area has been extended significant towards the west, possibly to the Pacific Ocean (not verified).
https://forums.wildfireintel.org/uploads/default/original/2X/a/a3c18ecbc5b1628272e178c2c658712b0f3a45b1.jpeg
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It is verified to the PAC
I believe that is confirmed…saw a offical release somewhere
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This should be on a different post by real quick, Feds and CF kinda have different polices on release of fixed wing. Basically only rotorwing type 2 and 3 stay assigned. Fixed wing and type 1 helicopters are released each night then reordered for the next day, unless it is a federal Bravo (ASM). In the CF world we used to be able to hold on the air attack but now they also are required to be released along with the type 1 helicopters. From CA Mob Guide:
Aircraft Release
All aircraft users should anticipate that tactical aircraft could be reassigned to new incidents at
any time, especially upon the completion of the current assignment.
At no time will supervisory aircraft or the ECC release positive control of any tactical aircraft
until approved by the GACC. Flight following will be performed on all released tactical aircraft.
Aircraft Chapter 50
Units may release charter and CWN aircraft to the vendor without flight following, providing
there are no federal passengers or cargo on board and will make notification to the GACC.
All airtankers will be released daily and reordered for next day’s shift by 1900 hours, under a
new request number.
All federal aerial supervision aircraft may remain on their original request number (A#) until
released from the incident, diverted to another incident, or go on days off.
On State incidents, all (state and federal) aerial supervision aircraft will be released at the end of
each day. They need to be reordered for next day’s shift by 1900 hours, under a new request
number.
So we work the same, only differently… 