Looking hot on the GOES-rgb at the moment. Southerly flow this afternoon but models want to switch winds to northeast this evening pushing it away from 166 towards the LP Forest. Roughly in the vicinity of Spanish Ranch fatality fire from 1979. (2006 Perkins fire as well)
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TNK911 just landed at MCC
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View from the other side of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Santa Ynez. Pretty good cumulonimbus build up beyond the smoke to the east.
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Well add this to the things I thought! I’d never see in my lifetime in SoCal. Large veg fire while under tropical storm warnings. WTF is happening
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Hopefully it does not establish in LPF because there is a very sharp precipitation gradient between Ventura county and here when the storm gets there, and the winds will push out of the NE.
Sorry if my coherency is lacking, barely any sleep MOD please move this post to the Plant fire thread
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Spot weather forecast is on order. Casually, looks like some thunderstorm activity on a northwest-northeast line, roughly on Taft. But I’d be ready for gusty and variable winds whether they get precip on the fire, or not. Not expecting sustained rain until late tomorrow afternoon, coming from the east, then it’s probably going to rain pretty good tomorrow night.
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Updated acres per IC is 300-400 with potential of 2000 acres.
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Yep, cant rule out nearby t-storms but they look to stay just outside that area as noted above. The switching wind directions over the next 24 hours really shout watch out for any ground resources. Full 180 degree changes multiple times…yikes. FWIW it would appear the main rain bands with Hilary will remain just east of this fire from what I’m seeing so far. So much more wind shear and turbulence in the lower boundary layer than normal under this regime with moist/unstable airmass aloft. Not a business as usual fire.
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I’m gonna say it’s gonna surpass the 2000 acre mark, looking at the camera and being familiar with the area it looks like its transitioned into a heavier fuel bed.
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Affirm, AA states it will most likely run to the ridge. Predicted wind change towards the forest for the evening.
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I have noticed those on the radar the past few, not sure where they came from.
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To borrow a line from Dr Peter Venkman,
DOGS AND CATS LIVING TOGETHER
MASS HYSTERIA!
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Tanker 911 off the ground MCC, looks to be headed southwest.
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Got Valley Fever on the Perkins Fire in same area back in 06. Be extra careful and mindful boys, girls and supervisors . 30 day incubation period prior to symptoms. No fun
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