5 posts were split to a new topic: Aircraft Operations Q&A
It’s all about the winds/weather. Under extreme winds, the fire COULD spot and hopscotch clearcuts until the winds stop, but shorter days and inversions have really been keeping things subdued for most of the day.
It’s not impossible the fire could burn around the top of the Crags, but absent sustained BIG winds, it hasn’t been spreading very fast in the brush at the higher elevations - it will take an extraordinary event for something like this to happen.
My gut feeling is the fire on East side of the river has more potential than the West for up-canyon spread.
Wind gusts have been the highest between 1900 and 2000 last few days, coming from the South and SW.
Random intel - the RH is 7% higher (30%) right now at 1400 than yesterday at this time. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TT081&num=72&banner=NONE (thanks norcalscan).
The RH change seems in line with the clouds that built in during the afternoon. More moisture. Glad to not see convective activity with that change. I came across from the coast and over Scott Mtn between 1000 and 1430. Trinity River canyon winds were significant at the roadway level, out of the S. But…that’s in a channelized canyon environment. The ridgetops were another story. Either no significant wind activity or moderate N-NW winds. Not what I would see as needed to push this fire up and around a ridge like the Crags & around to the north. Let’s hope this pattern holds.
This is one stubborn fire, even after dramatic change in weather with rain, great RH recovery (70-90%) cold temps and even snow on Shasta this thing is still throwing spots when things get in alignment. Crews battled spots and slops in CC, PP and YY today. Sounds like they got most of them picked up and lined but still just a reminder of how critically stressed the fuels are, and that’s in the wettest part of the state! Keep your head on a swivel, we haven’t even entered Santa Ana season
Big Demob on the Delta yesterday and today. Lots of usfs folks infilling.
I saw fresno crew 4 heading down the 99 back to fresno yesterday evening. I was stuck next to them when the 99 came to a stop for no reason. Their trucks are prudy.
Anyone have info on the team deployment? Back to this fire.
Nor Cal team 1 has been assigned. In-brief is at 1600 today at the ICP.
Trinity Center Web Cam should have a good view of the fire activity in the Bear Gulch area once (if?) the smoke clears this morning:
Rain just started on the coast. Initially, with a south wind. Now, calm.