Circling back to the topic that brought us here in the first place, here’s one way of looking at it…
We can take the deal as presented, in which case, we would get 2.5% now and 2% in January and again in July 2023 (for a total of 6.6% compounded) along with a chance at a 66 hour work week in a couple years and a couple other nickels and dimes that are great, but essentially boil down to feel good measures…
…or we reject the deal and go back to the negotiating table having sent the message that the membership feels the current offer does not adequately address the long-term issues that plague the department and the membership.
There will be those that say if we reject the offer, we could end up with a worse offer than we have now.
To me, is that possible? Sure. Anything is possible, but look at it this way…
The LAO report clearly points out that there is a high possibility that the state will face fiscal uncertainty that is sufficient enough to trigger the escape clause for postponing or modifying the 66 hour transition, so, to me, this agreement’s 66 hour terms amount to no more than an empty promise of a 66 hour week that the state will likely sidestep.
So, to me, the likelihood of a 66 hour week actually happening in November 2024 isn’t much better than a coin flip.
What about the 6.6% GSI over the next 12 months? Well, guess what? Minimum wage goes to $15.50 January 1, 2023. That’s 3.3% the state HAS TO give us, whether we take this deal or not.
Further, even if inflation were to moderate to more historically typical levels today, we’re still on track for another 50 cent minimum wage increase January 1, 2024. That’s another 3.2% before this agreement would expire June 30, 2024, for a total of…wait for it…6.6% compounded.
That’s 6.6% we’d get by January 2024 even if we reject the offer.
Hold on a second…is that the same 6.6% compounded that the Tentative Agreement offers? Yup. Interesting how the numbers work out.
To be fair, if we accept the current TA, we would get the 6.6% six months sooner than if we reject the current terms and are not able to renegotiate a new agreement within the next 12 months.
However, by accepting the current deal, we would be guaranteeing that CAL FIRE will remain a minimum wage fire department for at least two more years.
Personally, after patiently waiting decades for a schedule and compensation that is similar to the neighboring departments I fight fire alongside every day, I think I’m willing to risk having to wait a few extra months for a meager raise driven by minimum wage in order to have the opportunity to go back to the negotiating table to hammer out a new agreement that truly addresses the long-term needs of not only this department, but, most importantly, the needs of the membership.
I really wish 2881 would have distributed the details of this TA from the beginning so we could understand their reasoning and thought process because I really hope there’s something I’m missing or not understanding about this deal.
I really do want to like this deal, but the rational side of me is having a hard time with that right now.