Summary:
- A deep area of low pressure approaching the northeast Pacific will drag a strong cold front across CA and NV for Wednesday into Thursday with a round of moderate to heavy precip.
- Heaviest amounts will fall along northern/central CA coastal locations, the Shasta Lake drainage, and portions of the Sierra with 2" to 5" local to 6" at the wettest locations.
- Another storm system will approach the CA coast for the upcoming weekend, however, with model differences confidence is currently lower with this incoming precip event.
- Significant rises are expected on Wednesday and Thursday across much of California.
- Rivers will be highest along the north coast and Sacramento River system. Many locations are expected to exceed monitor stage, with several expected to exceed flood stage.
- The Colusa Weir and Tisdale Weir are expected to flow again this week, with the possibility of Moulton Weir and Fremont Weir flow later in the week.
Confidence: Medium then Lower this Weekend
Staffing Level: Extended (24 Hours Starting Wednesday Morning)
Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion
Cresting on the orange and yellow gages will occur Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Projected 5-Day Rain Totals
'kay. KSBY has a feature on debris flows and landslides in burn scars. A USGS Landslide Hazards Program team is working on the 2019 Cave Fire site. Soil saturation levels as covered in Hydrological Outlooks are another factor of risk. The language in the NWS issues is more specific about causes for pause.
Summary:
- Moderate to heavy precipitation will spread across the region today, lasting into Thursday with a deep area of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast and an associated cold front traversing CA and NV.
- Best precipitation totals will fall along the north coast down across the Santa Cruz mountains and Big Sur coast, along with areas inland over the Shasta Lake drainage with 3" to 5" local to 6". For the Sierra and coastal southern CA, totals will generally be from 1" to 3".
- Another area of low pressure making its way toward the coast from the southwest will impact the region Sunday into Monday. However, models show varying solutions at this point, resulting in lower confidence in the forecast.
- Beginning today, significant rises are expected across much of California.
- Rivers will be highest along the North Coast, Russian and Sacramento River systems. Many locations are expected to exceed monitor stage, with some expected to exceed flood stage.
- The Colusa, Tisdale, Moulton and Fremont weirs are expected to flow over the next several days heading into the weekend.
Confidence: Medium then Lower this Weekend
Staffing Level: Extended (24 Hours Starting Wednesday Morning)
Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion
The streamgages and real-time instruments used in the CNRFC, and other tools, are available as remote data resources. @ajohansson has a video posted with instructions for TAK (may apply to any KML app):
The video:
This dashboard has the virtue of 3D watershed depth layers. 1-Hour Radar Loop with approx inches per hour from NWS. The drainage down to the Navarro gage is visible, as is the watershed polygon south of Lake Mendocino and west of Clear Lake that drains to the Russian River, and later, points south and west to the Ocean.
I need to check on that KML, i know noaa made some changes on back end.
AJ
I gotta tell ya, dude, I have no clue how to recreate what USGS land and sea does to zoom the watershed definition datagraph value that changes the polygon with scroll altitude, or what REST message its sending, or what pull its doing with java voodoo. I was in Natural Resources, not the five json magics. Challenging, maybe somebody in TAK world is looking at it.
I feel like the easy way is to choose the most relevant watershed detail altitude as a single plane, in particular; the plane that aligns with NWS Watch and Warning polygons. See how that jibes with what you see with your Mk 1s. Use that KML layer in TAK. Feds have stacks of flood data and PDFs, I don’t imagine all of them are as plug and play as geolocated IAPs. Some of them might be. Some of them might be on Fed ArcGIS servers.
You need to keep it simple. You’re not underwriting an annual insurance estimate. You’re responding to an incident.
Ex. Last year, I used this map to evaluate the creeks around Camp SLO and the joint CalFire/CCC Toro Fire Center, located by the RC airstrip in the upper left. SLU has a TAK pilot, IIRC. As you mentioned, about NOAA, they move the racks around at the FEMA library.
Arroyo Grande Creek (of LPF Hotshots fame) and Oceano had flooding issues that tracked pretty closely to this map I hooked out of the Big Library.
Arroyo Grande Creek Watershed and Aquifers.
Ventura River Watershed and Aquifers. The bottom of the Ventura carries three large drainages that fall downwards to the beach.
Six Rivers National Forest, Eel River Watersheds. Sustained rainfall of 2.5"/hr. I dunno, I see alignment.
San Lorenzo River, Soquel Creek, Pajaro, Salinas River and Carmel Valley. Recent radar indicating rates of 2.5"/hr. Loma Prieta, above the San Lorenzo is 3700 ft.
Summary:
- Moderate to heavy precipitation has shifted across the southern Sierra down across coastal southern CA from Los Angeles to San Diego counties, as the cold front continues to sweep across the region. Precipitation totals will range from 1" to 3".
- Light to locally moderate precip will continue into Friday under onshore flow. Best opportunity for precip will be along the north coast and the northern/central Sierra with 0.25" to 0.75" local to 1".
- The next round of widespread moderate to heavy precip will spread across the region for the end of the weekend into early next week. Current thinking puts the highest precipitation totals from the Interstate 80 corridor southward across central/southern CA.
- Many river locations across Northern and Central California are cresting or beginning to recede this morning.
- River rises will continue today across Southern California and San Diego areas, where a flood stage is predicted for the San Diego River at Fashion Valley.
- Additional river responses are expected Sunday into Monday with the next system. Weir flow on the Sacramento system will continue heading into the weekend.
Confidence: Medium then Lower this Weekend
Staffing Level: Extended (Through Thursday Evening)
Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion
Ventura River FEMA Flood Hazard Layer
Cable Canyon Road to Highway 101
Ventura isn’t getting a very long spell as the storms move around Catalina. Current precip by Matilija Creek is a healthy 5 inches in 24 hrs. That could resume after one sunny day.
Summary:
- Light to locally moderate precip with scattered showers today, especially along the north coast and SE Shasta basin and northern/central Sierra. Light precip possible along the coast and Shast Basin and the Sierra and Nrn NV during the day Saturday.
- The next round of widespread moderate to heavy precip will increase along the Central CA coast Saturday night and spread across the region Sunday and continue into Tuesday. Highest precip amounts expected to generally be 6 to 12 inches along the transverse range and 4-8 inches along Central CA coast and along the Sierra for Saturday night through Tuesday.
- Most river locations across Northern and Central California are cresting or have started receding.
- Moderate to major river rises are expected in the next few days with the incoming system in the Southern California and San Diego area.
- Weir flow on the Sacramento system will continue heading into the weekend.
Confidence: Medium then Low Saturday night into next week.
Staffing Level: Extended (Through Thursday Evening)
Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion
Southbound Highway 101 at Ventura is currently closed due to flooding until Monday morning.
The chart shows a rise to approximately 11 ft on Thursday, not even close to the flood stage, yet significant flooding is present at the Highway. Storm surge from the Channel may be partially responsible for that, but I’m not actually there to say. The storm surge is expected to continue through the storm and a crest of 18.1 ft is forecast for Sunday night.
Tidal variation looks to be about 2-3 ft for today through Tuesday, Feb 6th. Waves to 12 ft or more have been forecast for the entrances to Morro Bay Harbor and Ventura Harbor.
Ventura County Fire Department (VCFD aka VNC) Basic Sandbag Tips
Summary:
- Light scattered precip across the region during the day today.
- The next round of widespread moderate to heavy precip will increase along the Central CA coast tonight and spread across the region Sunday continuing into Tuesday.
- Highest precip amounts expected to generally be 6 to 12 inches across the transverse range and 4-8 inches along Central CA coast mntns/Sierra for Saturday night through Tuesday.
- Freezing levels across the Sierra: 3.5-6.5 kft Sat pm-Sun am, 5-7.5 kft Sun pm-Mon am, 3.5-5.5 kft Mon pm-Tues pm
- Next potential system arrives sometime late next week, uncertainty on timing/details.
- Moderate to major river rises at multiple locations are expected starting tomorrow.
- Weir flow on the Sacramento system will continue heading into early next week.
Confidence: Medium Saturday, then Lower Sunday/Monday
Staffing Level: Extended (24 Hours Sunday/Monday)
Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion
Evacuation Warnings for Santa Barbara County
EVACUATION WARNINGS have been issued for the following areas in Santa Barbara County:
- Properties along waterways associated with the Thomas, Cave and Alisal burn areas.
- Properties in the vicinity of Sycamore Creek, from Stanwood Dr. down to parts of Ninos Dr., in the city of Santa Barbara.
This EVACUATION WARNING is due to an incoming storm arriving Saturday, February 3 through Tuesday, February 6 with the potential to produce flash flooding, debris flows and landslides.
Click here to access the interactive incident map.
The EVACUATION WARNING is in effect until further notice and may be upgraded to an Evacuation Order unless there are significant changes to the weather forecast.
Evacuation Orders and Warnings for Ventura County
EVACUATIONS
For a detailed map of all evacuation areas, please visit the Realtime Incident Dashboard
EVACUATION ORDERS – Effective 2/3/24 at 5:00PM
- Matilija Canyon / North Fork / Camino Cielo (Unincorporated Ojai)
EVACUATION WARNINGS – Effective 2/3/24 at 5:00PM
- Ventura RV Resort (City of Ventura)
- Community of Foster Park / Camp Chaffee (Unincorporated Ventura)
- Old Creek Road. / Creek Road (Unincorporated Ojai)
- 4 structures on Grada Avenue & Trueno Avenue (Unincorporated Camarillo)
ADVISORY – Effective 2/3/24 at 5:00PM
- Community of La Conchita
- An advisory has been issued to residents that live in the Community of La Conchita due to the volume of rain expected to saturate hillsides above the area. Over the last 14 days, La Conchita has received nearly 4 inches of rain with a potential to receive an additional 3”-5” over the next 5 days. This amount of rain will likely cause the soil to become saturated and may result in landslides or debris flows.
EMERGENCY EVACUATION SHELTER
An Emergency Evacuation Shelter will be available to residents impacted by the storm starting Sunday February 4, 2024, at 9:00AM.
Ventura College Gymnasium
4667 Telegraph Road
Ventura, CA 93003ROAD CLOSURES
- Lockwood Valley Rd. from Chico Larson Rd. to Hwy 33.
SAND BAGS
- Ventura County Fire has a list of locations https://vcfd.org/sandbag-stations
- San Jon Maintenance Yard – 336 Sanjon Rd.
- Camp Chaffee Rd. and Casitas Vista Rd.
- Moorpark City Library – 699 Moorpark Ave.
- College View Ave. – South of Campus Park Dr. in Moorpark
Additional forecast information can be found on the National Weather Service websites
