Hurricane Hilary - Aug ‘23

[ghost7]

Yeah. Heading north now. I added a screenshot to a previous post. Navy had an E2, a few Hawkers and a KC-135 up north, out of Coronado, I presume. Don’t know if it was coordinated, but they would be in a position to find TEAL 77 if something happened. There’s also the normal sea traffic skirting around the storm, including Mexican Navy patrol aircraft and the US Coast Guard. AFAIK, the C-130 could just go back to Keeler, but maybe they are going to base out of SoCal for the next mission. I see these Hawker Hunters flying around SoCal, now and then. No idea what their nominal mission is. There’s a carrier variant, the Hawker Sea Hawk. Trainers, maybe.

Turns out it was Pt. Magu.

[Flyron]

Hurricane Hilary: First-ever Tropical Storm Watch issued for Southern...

[MVUFirePhotographer]

Hilary has peaked in intensity and is now “weakening”. 2PM PST update…winds down from 145 to 130 mph and central min pressure has risen to 948 mb. Movement still NW at 12 mph

[BlueZebra]

@anvilhead was talking about eyewall replacement…wonder if this means the replacement failed, or is still in progress.

[anvilhead]

Combination of EWRC and slow forward motion upwelling cold water. The dvorak numbers have increased and looking good on satellite so I think the storm is in the process of restrengthening for the next 6-10 hours. Increased forward motion likely helps the storm at least maintain intensity for the next 12 hours, and the NHC now expects the storm to make landfall 6-8 hours faster than previously thought.

GIF showing the storm improving after EWRC & increased forward motion

[ghost7]

TEAL 77 just landed at SMX. Ready to load up some retardant? Lol, I dunno.

[SIXONENINE]

They have it there so it can make more frequent flights instead of originating in Biloxi MS, their home base. As the storm gets closer they will increase the number and frequency of flights.

[ghost7]

4:05 pm Fri Aug 18 Flood Watches and Warnings.

[trufirenick]

[ghost7]

5:53 pm Fri Aug 18 Flood Watches and Warnings.

[ghost7]

USGS | National Water Dashboard is a good map for this stuff because it has river, watershed and aquifer layers and a couple good topography sets. NWS Flood Watch and Warning zones polygons, past and forecasted precipitation totals and radar loops. Pretty much the factors you might want to consider regarding what happens after the water hits the ground. Generally, where the watershed line is, is where the water is going to split, usually but not always on an elevation line. Aquifers is where saturation will cause more pooling, and where more movement could be occurring that is not easily observable. The river or stream that’s more or less in the topographical low, often the centerline, of a watershed is where the water is probably going to go. Watershed detail becomes more fine as you zoom.

[SIXONENINE]

96-5300 as ‘TEAL77’
99-5309 as ‘TEAL81’
97-5305 as ‘TEAL78’
These are the current Hurricane Hunters that are assigned to recon for Hurricane Hilary. Staging is out of KSMX (Santa Maria Public Airport) in Santa Barbara County. ‘TEAL77’ is the only aircraft so far to finish a recon flight. As stated above they have been moved to KSMX for shorter flight times as to allow more time inside the storm due to fuel limitations when lifting from Biloxi.

[srffsc]

TEAL81 moved to SMX earlier today:

TEAL81 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron Flight Tracking and History -...

TEAL78 is en route from Biloxi to recon and currently over Southern Texas:

[Sierranne]

Yosemite News Info

https://yosemitenews.info/forum/read.php?3,98523,98524#msg-98524

[ffviking]

If all this comes true HWY 395 should be a fun drive during that time period.

[MVUFirePhotographer]

Tropical Storm Warning now issued for Hilary. As of the 8pm PST NHC update….Hilary has maintained winds and pressure over the last 3 hours

Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for our entire forecast area (San Diego, Orange, W Riverside, SW San Bern. counties). Passage of Hilary will most likely be late Sunday/Sunday evening. Here is the 8 PM bulletin from the National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…

[IMT_Geek]

Can you please correct the link so it works?

[MVUFirePhotographer]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ050&warncounty=CAC073&firewxzone=CAZ250&local_place1=San%20Marcos%20CA&product1=Tropical+Storm+Warning&lat=33.1433&lon=-117.165

[FireCapt]

People are saying this is the FIRST Tropical Storm of Southern California. FALSE! That storm occurred in September 25th, 1939. After the 1939 storm that killed 100 people the NWS opened its first Southern California office in 1940. The National Hurricane Center was formed in 1955. Long after the 1939 storm had occurred. Just to let you all know the National Weather Service was founded in 1870, before NOAA, NHC, and way before the NWS Severe Storm Prediction Center. With that being said, the NWS did form a Tropical Storm Watch for the 1939 storm, but the NHC could not because, it wasn’t around. Therefore, this proves this isn’t the FIRST Tropical Storm watch for Southern California!

[MVUFirePhotographer]

Just for clarification……you are correct as far as the 1939 storm being the last. I think what folks are hearing and reading is that this is the 1st tropical storm watch…now warning ever issued for SoCal