10 Days out/end of the month looks interesting, our transition to the rainy season. Will be monitoring to see if this pans out.
Forecast models are in agreement that an additional inside slider will drop out of BC Thursday, surface high pressure remains in the Great Basin and ridging will build in behind this disturbance over CA… this will increase offshore gradients to moderate levels, but with little upper level support as the trough axis moves pretty quickly east. The wind will be moderate, perhaps N-NE 25-35 mph in the windiest areas but the big story will be the increased drying and rising temperatures. Compressional heating west of the mountains should bring temperatures above normal.
Another cut off low could move into Southern CA albeit drier, and this is going to complicate the forecast going forward as it looks similar in nature to the two previous cut off lows. Model solutions vary from weak troughing across Northern CA to a blocking pattern setting up, depending on the interaction with this cutoff low and other features. Once again, this upper low could open up the door for more significant early season cold air intrusion into the Great Basin if the weakness in the ridge develops over AZ, however it is too early to say.
The chance of rain 10 days out is largely contingent on what this cut off nightmare does and I would not trust any signals of rain just yet due to this notion.
The forecast will likely clear up as Hurricane Pamela resolves and goes away off of model runs in about 3 days.
Forecast models bring a troughing sequence into Northern California. Precipitation totals seem to be light for the first couple of frontal boundaries.
Late next week, a surface low pressure system at the equivalence of a category 2 hurricane could develop over Pacific Ocean and bring heavy winds and snow to WA/OR.
The manifestation of the exact location of the surface low pressure and it’s track will determine heavier rainfall chances in Northern CA, and thus predictability is low at this time.
A study needs to be done, but forecast models show what could be the strongest low pressure system for this particular area on this date in recorded history
Wettest October since 2016 forecasted/predicted. We shall see…
Another graphic showing total cumulative precipitation for the next 7 days. I’m sure this is over blown but better than 10ths of an inch so far we’ve been getting. Looking favorable for a good portion of NorCal.
New to me, scale of “1-5 Atmospheric River” levels which is great to see. Wish Red Flag Warnings had a similar severity scale.
At the least fire season will be squashed for the time being even if these forecasts are over blown a bit for NorCal. Heads up around the burn scars.
I have seen a few stories about them adding a version of that via “PDS” to red flag warnings. Can’t find the reference on the NWS site though.
ㅤ 
ㅤ’-(…)-’
ㅤ/ㅤ \
How do you get to that image? Been going around and around on that site with no luck…
Click select view then local radar and select a location dot on the map.
https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy0xMTkuNzg4LDM2LjMwN10sInpvb20iOjh9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D#/
You can change locations on left tab and data products are center.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year