North Ops Weather-2023

Copy that, I heard Lake Don Pedro was going to raise 30 plus feet by the end of the week with all the inflows going into it. It would not surprise me Pedro has a good size water shed. New Melones is on the rise a lot of the islands that were showing are now under water. Glad we are getting rain and snow now lets space it out with some sun.

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No sun… But maybe a little bit of drying spells although it’s kinda raining up here in Soulsbyville right now… Lol

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Two things stand out to me, consistently, about flood response corpora and media in contrast to public wildfire media. When a 20 ft fire whirl dances in march across a saddle and four lane highway, its photogenic. A day after a heavy rainstorm, the sun is out.

But the water has power that you cannot see.

The water is still on the hill.

Better visual and 3d, and 2d+ modeling of how water is flowing through the landscape unseen may help a potential motorist see the forces underneath the surface tension.

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ex. USGS Water Dashboard

Two rushes against San Lorenzo River in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The coastal range is steeper and faster than the monumental grind of the Sierra foothills.

Briefly, flood damage is a slow attack of hydrostatic pressure against confinement, eh? How many lives at risk against how much water we can sequester, and where, and how long, etc. Today, many counties have a story of 10 or more structures destroyed and damaged. The big numbers are often connected to levee breaches.

There are a whole host of resources in Wildfire Intel that respond to weather events like these on a regular basis, in one way or another, on various timescales, and many of the data sources are the same. Happy coincidences for crews.

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ex 2. Sequester in Sonoma. Watersheds on the ridgeline indicated in the Flood Warning for the Russian River southwest of Clear Lake and post-fire timberfall in 4 to 5 year old scars.

There is poor capture north by northwest of Vallejo, it provides no buffer to absorb water pressure from Barryessa, Napa.

This flood warning appears to be current, and active through the sunny hours.

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Third time’s the charm. Final example of USGS Water Dashboard tool. Petaluma and environs are flooding. The water gauges show the rush against sequester for property areas along the central lanes of the aquafer in light green. The Russian River continues to push against the creeks and few channels for mountain water to fall towards Clear Lake and Barryessa.

If the potential motorist considers a break between the rushes a chance to find a good road, the driver-operator might not anticipate the volume, speed and breaching power rising suddenly and quietly. Not only that, but the changing conditions make it unclear what is the safe way out. Get the high ground.

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Russian???

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Couple inches of snow in Twain Harte this morning at 3648’. Earlier in the week at 6600’ it was raining at Dodge Ridge Ski Resort. Hopefully this will bring the base up at the lower elevations.

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Low pressure sitting over Madera Ranchos.

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Snowing in Sonora today at 2200 Feet.

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Been dumping here in Soulsbyville since about 7am
For some reason I can’t upload pictures here anymore

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image

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Sonoma County - Alexander Valley - Russian River
Post Wildfire Debris Flow Hazard Assessment

The watershed, per se, breaks near Santa Rosa, meaning that there is some ‘normal’ waterflow that goes west, rather than south. Sonoma has gotten pretty scorched in the last 5 years, extending back through the 2020 LNU Complex Fires (part of the lightning siege of 2020) to the Kincade Fire of 2019. Hazards abound. These fires probably contributed in big ways to the flood watches and warnings that persisted here after watches were lifted in the Central Valley to the east.

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