More rain coming next week from a cold front that will deliver widespread rain, breezy conditions, and possible thunderstorms to NorCal.
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Looks like a season ender, and the more Narda and the trough evolve over time the more I think that South Ops could get precipitation as well from the mid level moisture getting picked up by the unseasonably deep trough.
Early season troughs tend to be too far SW on the middle range of the forecast, but I just get the sense that the 9/30 date is significant and there’s a good chance of decent rainfall.
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That’s the best news I’ve heard all month!
Perhaps we will be deemed essential and not getting paid while watching it rain.
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#Beyond-fascinating - The interplay between the narda, the lingering low & the pac frontal system.
Borrowing a phrase from @norcal74 - the class remains in session! 
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I get it, I hope everyone has the means to make ends meet from slow season and more.
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I think some people will start getting the big picture soon. It’s why I no longer see this as individual fire ‘seasons’ and more so a play.
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HAHAHA! Too Funny 
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Not sure this is a season ending event.. It will take a series of storms and cooler weather to go to off peak.
What this will do is open up a lot of opportunities for prescribed fire so plenty of work for people on those projects.
I have seen early soaking rain in the past only to have a few drying wind events reset the fuels and fire season is off again.
This will certainly be a soaking event.
One thing to watch is early pooling of cooler air in the Great Basin, that is one of the primary ingredients for SA season to begin down south.
The interaction of the remnants of Narda is the driving factor. We had talked about the northward track of the remnants and the active jet stream. Add in the pesky cut off low and we have the ingredients for what may unfold next week. It would be nice to draw some long term conclusions about what to expect this winter from this pattern, but bets on shoulder season patterns are tedious.
This is an infrequent( do not want to use the term rare) interaction. If you move Narda faster or more east.. it misses the opportunity to phase with the cut off low, or if the cold front is 500 miles north.. we get an inside slider and wind( as was depicted just three days ago).
Think back to the October 2021 event and a similar event in October of 2009. These events had rain in excess of 10 inches in places.
The 2009 event led to pile burning and then escapes. There was one notable escape that burned several thousand acres in the CZU… we could not access portions of the fire because of a mud slide from the 10 plus inches of rain the week before…
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FYI..
RFW now issued for Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft - 5 a.m Fri until 5 a.m. Sat. #northwinds
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Talk about being as fascinating as it is frightening & awe inspiring! I submit this for the good of the order.
This video made me reflect on the covo that you & @Ehoss84 were talking about this past July. The receipts/citation links to several studies (including this one) are in the video description.
Its worth checking out if at all interested in the Suns Wx & how solar forcing impacts climate & weather on this 3rd rock from the sun!
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Looks like 24 hours of offshore flow for NOPS. The area west of I-5 will be the bullseye for the strongest winds. As usual RH will trend lower with the drying wind. Temps should peak by Friday afternoon.
Reading the local AFD’s temps will begin a slide on Saturday and by Sunday temps in the Valley will be in the 70’s.
A series of cold fronts will begin the take aim at NOPS by Sunday night. The first storm will bump into the dry airmass left over from the today’s offshore winds. With that.. the Pacific is active. And has been well chronicled here an interaction between remnant tropical moisture, a cut off low and a cold front from the North Pacific will all interact. This am some of the projected rainfall totals have been scaled back, that could change. A look at the upper air patterns and jet stream seem to keep the pattern progressive so no stalls.. but this interaction between these three weather systems can also wring out some impressive totals.
A safe bet is the usual spots - King Range, North Bay and Shasta and FRC will see heftier totals. The valley will have some rain shadow effect but the subtropical tap could help to enhance some of the precip totals in less orographic favored areas.
Right now highest totals look to be near 1.5 inches in those favored areas.. but that could change.
Might even see some light snow on Shasta, Lassen and Mt. Eddy.
This am .. more on the horizon but too far out to buy into.
After a few days of drying might be some good conditions for RX burns…
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Not sure what that is.. but we no longer will see lay offs on the state side. The department has done a great job at educating the politicians about the benefits of year round staffing. If you have been following the thread on here there is a bill working its way through that will end seasonal positions.
Right now pretty much everyone works 9 months.. so rain or no rain they will keep working.
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CSR Weather CC shows rain north of Montery/Sacramento line. 0.5-2.0" Monday, and 0.0-0.5 Tuesday, with trace amounts Wednesday. Large fire potential CSR wide is 2% or less next 5+ days. Deserts will habe the typical onshore 25-40G50 winds each afternoon as the cold front passes early next week.
Its prescribed fire season for sure.
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For some reason your post is making me reflect that it didnt take long OR much on a dry windy day in nops in October of 1999 to leave a mark 3 miles wide by 20+ miles long and included the loss of a responder and 950+ structures. It was by far the worst day of many peoples lives. Those “worst days in peoples lives” can and do happen in every month & every geographic area & every fuel type, regardless of the Wx.. #facts
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SHU-Jones.
RIP Karen Savage
(Second due engine on IA)
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I was there.. we had a near miss with another Oakland Hills fire the night before the Jones kicked off. A fire started behind the Claremont and ran downhill and spotted but we caught it, really close to a repeat of 91.
The day the Jones kicked off the Pendola and Ramsey did as well. Mother Nature has the last word…
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Well.. tried to upload a pic.. but totals are remaining the same through earl6nnext week at least according to the European model. Might squeeze out some heft totals in the FRC and Shasta drainages. Orographic’s are set up for both those areas to get a good solid 36-48 hours of precip.
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Dont always get to see (visualy) norcals air conditioning unit at work - sometimes its more of a feel thing. Right now it’s cranked up to high and pumping marine layer into the sac valley. Neat to see and feel it working! #deltabreeze
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