North Ops Weather - 2025

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Thinking out loud..
I know meteorological winter has just begun BUT at what point is it fair to entertain speculation that we might be facing a legit snowdrought?? :thinking:

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45 degrees going over Sonora pass today at 9628 FT. Should not be open this time of year.

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Blocking patterns can be persistent, frustrating and totally normal at the same time. Right now we have been under a stuck pattern which has kept us on the dry side of things. The rain in October and November set the stage for the Tule fog( we talked about that before). The damp ground and inversion and strong high pressure have led to perfect conditions for the deep fog layer to develop. What has been different with this set up is the depth of the fog. At times it has been able to make it above 2500 feet elevation. This does not usually occur…
The pattern is actually typical of a La Niña set up.. high pressure to the south and systems pounding the PNW. NOPS will certainly eventually get in on the action from up north.. but for now we are stuck for at least another 7 days.
In a La Niña pattern we expect the cut off line for precip/no precip to be closer to the Monterey Bay Area.. this year it has migrated to the north( for now).
I am guessing if you live in the Central Valley and hear people talk about how warm it has been.. they would think you are crazy. For many areas in the CV there high and low temps have hovered in the mid-40’s for the last week and it will continue for another few days.
There is no snow to be found below 7000 feet.
The warmth is a function of the HP and strong inversions setting up. The lack of any downsloping( or other wind) has allowed the strong inversions to remain intact and keep very cool damp air below 1500 feet and warmer air above it. The capping effect reinforces itself each day ensuring that the pattern will not give up.
Some indication in the models of a pattern change around mid-month. While the date of the change has been consistently moving forward with each run.. it is at least showing a change.
A lot of speculating in the weather world as to the cause.. warm SST.. lack of Polar air moving down into the west coast.. a quicker transition to an El Niño pattern …
For now.. if you are above 1800 feet.. not bad weather. It would be nice to get some snow so the resorts can all open..
We will see..

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2800 ft at my house, chilly mornings, sunny days 55-60 degrees. Go to the valley? mid 40’s and grey. Local news calling it “Fogmageddon”… and by Tuesday some of the longest stretch of 40 degree weather on record.

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The north end of the Sac valley sure feels allot like the San Joaquin in the middle of Tule fog season! This has to be a record stretch of fog or am i just too young to remember past persistent Tule fog incursions? # All i want for Christmas is some sun!! :nerd_face:

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Your not alone here in RDD, besides the :sun: came out here for a few hours yesterday. Since it’s a subjective evaluation…the tule fog has been blanketing for 21 days( Nov 24th), which is “record breaking ish”. But look. Wash rinse repeat…your pain is felt deep into SOPS(( Bakersfield). Tomorrow sir you shall initiate your early Xmas :wrapped_gift:.

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You may be too young !
I remember back in the late seventies of having to go up to Paradise or another destination in the mountains to visit with the sun. Between rain, fog and overcast we didn’t see the sun for months without traveling. Extremely depressing .

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Idk about this Wx!
Breezy at the surface this a.m. so thats a change BUT the fog still persisting!
What type of sorcery is this!?
Pattern change cant come quick enough imho..

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Pattern change has come - thank you Santa!! .
Snow = Not so much!
Rain Amounts = Not too shabby!
Fog = Hiding.. for now.

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Imagine if there was a snowpack it would prob be contributing heavily to the flood potential! #warmstorms

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Well.. at least the Fog is gone…

1214 Update..
WOW! Bay Area north might have a windy++ & wet++ go of it this coming week. Will be watching closely to see how deep the Low’s actually get. Potential for sustained (not just gusts) hurricane force winds got my attention!! Trees & powerlines might take a beating by this time next week.. :flushed_face:

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NWS just activated an Emergency Broadcast Flash Flood Warning to go with the Watch already in place for Trinity County.. No doubt 1st responders have been / will continue to be busy! The 24hr rainfall amounts for N & NW Ca are impressive and still climbing quickly..

1545 Update…
Still 60 degrees, Wind still slamming, Rain still raining like it’s FLA & now a notification from ShasCom / Alert Shasta.
“Due to severe weather and flooding in the Shasta County area road conditions are unsafe. We are asking that all residents remain in a safe location and avoid driving for their own safety and the safety of others.” :flushed_face:

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Well @wfapdude ..do the rain dance and rain shall be received.
RDD took it on the chin. Widespread flooding and damage. 24 hr total for Shasta dam 6.28.

That cell sat stationary for hours. Alighted SW to NE

24 hr accumulated

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That long yellow sideways tornado looking thing that is outlining the convergence zone (on radar) is literally still in place - ITS BEEN THERE ALL DAY!!

My phone is still exploding with more emergency notices from shascom & NWS. Our 1st responders & many citizens are certainly being tested & stretched to their limits! I dont think they’ll get a break for quite a while - as in several more days if the current models come to fruition!

Wondering if those 24hr totals are close to record amounts. I’ll have to research that while power is still on.. And its still darn near 60 degrees and raining sideways - 100% Frogstrangler!! :face_with_spiral_eyes:

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It’s called backbone ridge. It IS the convergence zone. Keswick to Burney.:white_check_mark:

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8:10 Update from City Of Redding.

Redding Shelter Update:

The American Red Cross will be opening a shelter for individuals displaced by flooding at Pilgrim Congregational Church, 2850 Foothill Blvd. Doors are now open.

Important notes:

  • Roads leading to the shelter may still be flooded. If it is safe to do so, community members are encouraged to shelter in place until conditions improve.

  • Pets are not permitted at this shelter.

Road closures currently in effect:

-Jewell Lane

-Hwy 273 / Branstetter

-Hwy 273 / Buenaventura

-Shasta View Drive (between Tarmac & Old Alturas)

-Old Alturas (between Shasta View & Victor)

-North Bonnyview & East Bonnyview

Please stay safe and continue to monitor official updates for the latest information.

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