North Ops Weather - 2025

Not to be rude or anything but can you explain this in simpler terms I’m not really understanding. Sorry

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Didn’t you have some crazy predictive stuff last year that all came true? You need to stop :stop_sign: :flushed_face:

“This guy’s good!”

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Don’t worry, you’re not alone. These guys are in deep!

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In Honolulu currently, sequestered to my 16th floor room. Looks like the first wave was a dud, not really seeing much behind that, only that the Midway report was that the third wave was the strongest.
Still on a hurry up and wait pattern for the night, but by what I am seeing here the weat coast won’t get much

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You can track the wave height across the Pacific by selecting water level stations on this website: https://tsunami.gov/
(some stations work, others do not)

The earthquake itself (magnitude 8.8) is the largest since the March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami (magnitude 9.0) that caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. Additionally, today’s earthquake is tied for the 6th largest ever recorded with modern seismographs.

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Been crazy here, with everything shut down. Was watching the stations on the tsunami site, pretty medial readings. Still not 100% in the clear, but me thinks that if there is anything measureable it won’t be much.
Kinda wish I could have felt the power of that big of a release. Just impressive on a scale that I cannot imagine

On a side note, seems the command structure learned from the Lahaina fires (was specifically referenced in a breifing) and was well trained to handle this. Of the bery many people I talked to there was almost no confusion on what was happening and what to do

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There is a big difference. They plan for and have frequent drills for hurricanes and tsunami’s. They never had a large scale drill on large veg. with hurricane wind and apposing large Low passing at the same time.
So yes, they would be better prepared and have answers for the media.

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Sugar hill cam showing some good wx over last couple hrs

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They were referencing, specifically, the mutual aid and coordination between agencies that, by my interpretation, wasn’t there before.
While I wasn’t involved in any of it or even listened to communication during the event, I did see Honolulu PD, Fire, and city workers working together on the evacuation (which was still a cluster, but the small part I did see they seemed to be on the same page).
Not sure if they utilized local municipalites in their training before, the brass mentioned in a press conference that lessons learned from Lahaina led them to use all available resources in their training and it showed through this event

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How’s the LX looking?

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Good post on this:
https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/1951018220502262248

Auguste :thinking:

For “The Thinker” (easier explanation): the overall climate models favor strong high pressure in the first half of August, so you can expect broad brush hot/dry conditions over the region with the details worked out in the individual operational model runs.

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Maybe some elevated convection at times as well?..

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Yes, it looks likely. Looking big picture,
:cloud_with_lightning: in September? Timeline should become clear very soon.

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Cap"t Obvious here..
Certainly not a bad thing that the days / burn periods in the West are getting shorter instead of longer. Still, PLENTY of time for siege tho. :grimacing:

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We waited all the way until January for the Santa Ana’s to drive wind driven fires under near maximum strength conditions. The shorter the duration window, the more energy can be put into one or two events. Sometimes the chicken comes home to roost in the form of a phoenix.

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100% true that!! I should have prefaced the above with “wind driven fires excluded”

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Great video breakdown by former NWS San Diego meteorologist Alex Tardy.

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It was the very end of Aug 1987 when “the siege” began in norcal. It cooked off 600,000+ acres and some very seasoned fire folks et al thought “thats prob a once in a career / lifetime event”. The next year in 88, the year i graduated HS and went to work for Smokey Bear, Yellowstone fire alone cooked off 1.5 million acres and the term megafires / megafire era was born. Now, in my short working lifetime, we’ve graduated to the gigafire(s) era.. Whats next?! For some reason thats where my mind wanders after watching this breakdown about the rest of August potentially being HOT AF in the west AND a potential for monsoon drama to follow and/or come with that heat..

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