Mod’s please delete or whatever you feel best if i’m overstepping here..
I feel like this post is too valuable to loose/hide in a 2025 thread that perhaps most wont go back too. Since Wx, Climate & really good information does not adhere to OR recognize the calendar year i’m re-posting this link from @norcal74 here..
Looks like a pretty soggy start to January. Hopefully it spaces itself out and doesn’t dump all at once.
Norther Sierra Rainfall = 169% of Historical (1920-2020) Average as of today..
El Nino cometh!?
Not liking the incoming temp inversion at the higher elevations - seems like that setup will cook off what little snowpack we have going… 
Fuels Watcher here with an update..
After several direct observations i can report that Spring bulb type plants (daffodils etc) are now pushing up shoots in the north end of the valley. Thinking this too should come as no surprise given how the hardwoods have been reacting already. End-o-report!
#warmsoil #shiftingbaselines
I just found this really cool animation of the US Drought Monitor from 2010-2021.
You can really see how our huge fires of that era chased the droughts (2015 in LNU, 2016 Soberanes, 2017 Thomas, 2018 Carr, Ranch, Delta, Hirz, Camp, 2020 and 2021 Lightning Complexes, Dixie, Caldor).
And just like that the 70’s have solidly returned to the RDD/valley.
Both my Lab’s are in heatstroke again & i’m doing my best to manage a Type 1 shedding event thanks to the warm wx. Acclimation & hydration training comes early this year, YAY US!
Thought the annual stretch of wintertime golf weather usually came in Feb!? 
Even the fiddle neck is showing up down here, gonna have to start weed eating and spraying next month in the park or our seasonals will be burned out by June 
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Plenty of winter left ppl. Enjoy the sun at home while it lasts
65 degrees @ 2100hrs in mid Jan in The RDD! 
#giddyup! #shiftingbaselines
Edit: Still 61 @ 0600! Might hit 80 for a hi today. Making me want to plant tomatoes in Jan!? 
Good underburning conditions! We bottomed out with an RH of 18% this afternoon in Forest Ranch, temp of 72. PIG of 60% in the middle of January, and we peeled a few layers off the onion for some old folks with the Butte PBA.
https://fb.watch/EGGD03gT9a/
Are you able to confirm these evening and morning temps? I’m down in Boonville in MEU and the weather app on my phone will read 64 degrees in the middle of the night, but I can assure that is not accurate. At the same time, I’m getting temps of 34 outside and 48 inside. I’m not questioning your integrity, just wanting to confirm those numbers. A night time temp of 65 would be very welcome in my world right now.
Afirm! Here’s a link to a Wx report from the local Meteorologist in my area. The compressional heating/north wind component was in full effect. It really jacked up the early morning low temps here…
P.s. i’m cool with being questioned (respectfully of course) on anything/everything i post here!
https://fb.watch/EJ0pjhdrY6/
We had talked in the Fall about some predictions.. I will defer to Anvilhead.. but IMHO.. so far it has almost all come to fruition.
Early precip and a stagnant jet stream lead to wicked Tule Fog events. 23 years of working in the valley and this year seems to be the worst I have seen.
The culprit is two fold.. a lackluster jet stream keeping storm systems away from us and allowing high pressure to set up shop(Rex block pattern). Once HP sets up there is nothing to disrupt it and weak offshore flow reinforces the inversions which already can persist once we get cold air trapped in the valley’s. This am it was 25 in the parking lot at Palisades and only dropped to 41 at the top of Siberia at 8000 feet( good way to meet and spend time with an Orthopedic surgeon).
The “capped” atmosphere is allowing really warm temps to exist in the Foothills while the Valley is experiencing freezing temps and often shrouded in fog. With no systems moving near us in the jet stream there is nothing to disrupt the locked pattern.
We talked about a front loaded winter with a “Kelley Schedule” of precip events.. that has been accurate. Somewhat of a two week on.. two week off regime. We also talked about the potential of more AR type of events. The one item not on the bingo card was the above normal precip for SOPS.. I have some ideas why that is.. but it could also just be that even in dry years some rain makes it there.. and the systems that made it happened to be very wet.
I still think we see a “front loaded” winter. And we are still in the front loaded period. I would expect to see the gaps between precip events lengthen.. but that has more to do with season shift aligning with our current patterns.
A lot of indicators pointing to a burgeoning El Niño. If we make that transition we could begin to see its effects on everything except precip by Spring and Summmer.
El Niño influenced summer’s tend to feature warmer temps and some enhanced chances of coastal lightning events that can favor SOPS.
Much to far out to speculate..
For now.. Models showed some breakdown around 7 days from now.. but not a lot of confidence due to lack of run to run consistency..
Relatively pleasant if not boring weather… with a slow gnaw on the meager snow pack…
To steal a baseball term - you & Anvil are 100% still swinging a hot bat when it comes to the Wx & climate intel! #facts!
We’ve got great conditions for underburns in the foothills here in Butte County, with dry fuels, low winds, and relatively low RH, but have been stuck in a stream of steady no-burn days due to the ultra-low mixing heights and concerns over trapping smoke in the Valley. That said, the AQMD was willing to exempt our 2-acre burn last week, so if you are wanting to do some burning, don’t assume the burn day website is the last word - the regulators are showing some flexibility.
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