Feb is basically upon us now and..
The snow drought persists.
Blocking Patterns persist!
The 1st false spring that began in Dec persists!
RDD rainfall for the full rain season to date = 58% of normal!
And yet the drought map for Ca still shows no drought in a state that is always a whisker away from drought - at least the reservoirs are looking good?!
Keep thinking it’s beyond time to put serious thought into re-calibrating models and outputs like the drought map!?
For sure winter will be here any second so go ahead and hold yer breath.
Wx is certainly prone to change quickly BUT i’m not holding my breath any more - this one feels different - hope i’m wrong! If not i sure hope the Summer is mild one despite the way it’s setting up.
“False spring” began in Dec and still it persists!
Record warmth still persists!
My Wx stooge / curious non-producer feeling is that it’s gonna take more than a “miracle march” to pull out of this nuttyness. Expecting more impacts to Rx plans statewide yet to come..
Forgot to mention that the ornamental cherry trees and other hardwood species (i dont have names for) have had blossomes going for 2 weeks now. They’re really poping right now here in north rdd.
This has been the earliest that i can recall blossoms on those type of trees in my “short” time here in nops. I’m sure it’s happened before and i just wasn’t around or paying attention like i do now.
Really has me thinking about Almond & Pecan Farmers & ground nesters like turkeys, quail et al - they’re gonna be in a world of hurt if/when winter or a freeze returns. I gotta believe we’ve got at least one more cold spell coming for nops but who knows.
Also wondering just how the much recent galactic & solar climatology/shenanigans are playing a part in our terrestrial Wx patterns.
Seems like this winter in my neck of the woods has been a story of 2 patterns.. so far.
1 - Rinse/repeat of blocking patterns w/ record warmth
2 - AR storm(s) w/ flooding followed by record warm spells
Certainly a big time negative tilt to the dome thats been over us - i believe that too is a sign of change incoming BUT how big will that change actually translate into on the ground & how long will it last?
Precip is great BUT following it up with record warm has been no bueno & this snowdrought thing is significant and then some!?
Tuesday I drove from Greenville to Satley, then over Yuba Pass to Nevada City and back. Snow over the pass is paltry compared to what I have seen in the past. Things climate-wise ain’t looking good at all.
upcoming cold snap with freezing rain prediction for the 15th to the 19th (so far) which are rare for my location in Lake County. lots of my vegetation never really set dormancy this year so it will be interesting to see the damage to the new bud growth and buds. If it really does get below freezing for a few days, that will set up my burn piles for the next sunny day.
Greater than 70% chance of a storm or multiple storms, producing rainfall, snowfall, and winds in/ above the 95th percentile for this date. 16th/17th look like the first big punch. Snow level could fall all the way down to 1000 feet.
And just like that the “false spring” that began in Dec shall come crashing down abruptly! Yay us!?
I sure hope the rest of meteorological winter/spring will spare the growers/farmers - i’ve seen how blossomed out many of the almond/pecan trees have already gotten. Severe Wx and/or freeze could really be un-nice!
Okay, the reason I am highlighting this winter storm for you guys is because it is abnormal and I am not using sensationalized language. The 12z EC is showing a 973 MB surface low off of the coast of Cape Mendocino with a large swath of 60-70 MPH wind gusts. Additionally, the atmospheric heights are some of the lowest possible for Northern California and the cold front actually ends up occluding with a large warm sector out ahead which suggests a considerable severe weather threat across the San Joaquin valley and coastal areas despite the lack of bouyancy. If the heights were to come to fruition there could be snow down to sea level in the occluded cold sector OR even freezing rain if this structure comes to fruition. The GFS is a little further north on previous runs with the track of the low going through “bombogenesis”… so a little weaker on it’s solution.
ADDITIONALLY, there is a second storm likely for the 20th time frame that could be similar strength. Widespread 8-13" of rain below the snowline during this sequence seems likely, with 6-12’ of snow above 4,000’ possible.
