What i took away from your earlier post was to plan & prepare now - hope for the best BUT prepare for a very un-nicer period of Wx! 
70’s one minute with potential for 6-12’ of snow above 4000’ the next is not something to take lightly - these dramatic swings in the patterns really are something. We go from flooding to record warm to windy snowmagedon! Way too many citizenry are just not prepared for it. 
Systems, infrastructure, responders & everyone else will be tested.. again. 
That about sums it up. See it time after time again and again. If you live in the Mountains or Foothills Be Prepared…get your snowblower or generator tuned up and ready to go. Keep that snow shovel in your vehicle. Have a little extra firewood close by. Gas up your car, fill those propane tanks and get some groceries. Between Snow and Wind I have been with out power for two weeks. Might want to keep you chainsaw turned up and sharpened.
And Folks leave the down wires to PG&E!!!
I was not accusing you of sensationalism. I am just very concerned. This is a public forum and I don’t want to get very deep into my personal details, but I am currently very vulnerable to severe weather. In light of what has recently transpired across the US East of the Rockies, and particularly along the East Coast, seeing you use the word “destructive” is a cause for alarm. So far, the website I use for forecast (weather underground) is showing heavy rain, but not severe wind. Temps will be low, near freezing, but not dipping below. Loss of power and/or sub freezing temps could make my precarious situation much worse. I see the other posts regarding preparation and I get it. My resources are limited. In addition to weather underground I also monitor the NWS website. Any other online resources I could monitor? Although, I’m not sure how much knowing in advance is going to help when I’m already doing everything I can.
WU uses NBM blended forecasting for the output on the website, biggest issue is that does not include high resolution model data that will show more detail past the 4 day mark. So I am interpolating the storm potential based on some of the ECMWF outputs that show 6-12" of rain and damaging wind gusts. Individual model runs show more broad troughing versus an actual strong mid latitude cyclone, and that will greatly influence the outcome. Like I said, 70% chance of a strong and impactful storm and sorry for the language I should say impactful versus destructive, but sometimes intuition comes to play
Another Fuels & Wx observation from a booger picker..
I cant help but chuckle as it’s sounding, looking & feeling like winter is finally starting and yet the manzanita in the lower elevations of the valley (near/around me) has been flowered out for about 2 weeks already!? Thats kinda bananas!
#shiftingbaselines #weneedsnowpack
There is some model variation but the general trend is towards a landfalling surface low pressure system on the 19th/20th in Northern California, although the GFS takes it into Southern California and is an outlier. Interesting corresponding archetypes happening at the same time on these dates, which led to my certainty that this prolonged storm event would occur and verify and why I brought it up a week ago.
Welp touch down on a tornado today in Fresno County. Took out a Fresno County Station
Yesterday the Storm Prediction Center had a 2% chance of tornado in their Day 2 Outlook BUT the polygon/area of concern wasn’t that far north. It was all central coast & south coast if i’m not mistaken! Another reminder that Wx dont care about polygons or lines on a map!
Glad no responders or citizens were hurt!
Fyi..
Posting this for those looking for a mostly nor-call afternoon update (its 2hrs old now, sorry) and because he points out where to go for a real good source of Wx intel/Radar/HRRR etc..
Experience has shown that when winter storm warnings extend into the valley & they talk about snow in RDD - it’s a real good time to stay off the roads and hunker down bcuz its probably going to get sporty++ for a bit! Sounds like high confidence for a period of un-nicery! Hang in there y’all!!
Heartbreaking, Confusing & Appreciative - those are a few of the emotions hitting me since this story began yesterday.
Heartbroken for the families that have lost a member.
Confusing because i have less than zero % capacity to understand why anyone would approve/guide other humans in those conditions unless it was a life/safety matter.
Appreciative/Gratitude beyond words that i live in a community with strong SAR capability & to know that there are humans who would risk their own lives in extreme++ conditions to save others is more than humbling..
