Whoa
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The lightning has made it’s way into the Sierra.
Also ANF/LAC
01:26
The Southern Sierra is getting hammered with lightning now.
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for what is worth, getting some moisture (i do not think it will be measurable) but my lab is laying on the deck and is wet…better than nothing I guess. have not heard any lightening. smells good…Wrightwood, CA…in the mountains of ANF
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Dropped the red flag warnings, now flash flood watches are in effect on the east side of the sierra.
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Interesting pattern setting up.
A large inverted trough of low pressure is expected to traverse the southern section of the high pressure system and move over Southern CA early next week. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms could be expected. The monsoon flow should bring easterly waves through Tuesday which could produce precipitation… then as the large trough advects drier air and spins over the ocean, the mixed airmass could lead to dry thunderstorms later next week. Not trying to hype the situation, but it’s a scenario to watch for… and the focus of the dry threat will likely be north of the Grapevine.
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Sounds like the San Jacinto district of the BDF got heavy rain with this system. Hope that was widespread.
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I was in Big Bear as the cells came through up here, believe they had quite a bit of rain with the cells.
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Posted on the NWS San Diego Facebook page, looks like some rain coming to South Ops’s area.
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Getting our 1st lightning strikes in MVU already. Decent storm in and around the Lake Henshaw and Dudley’s area. Already 1 fire the MVU has full dispatch enroute to at Hwy 79 and Mesa Grande. Can hear the thunder in San Marcos and its getting even darker to the east of here!
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Units enroute had smoke from a distance but are UTL due to heavy precip
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Send that light speed to the Dixie Fire…They need all the help they can get!
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Large cell just formed just south of Julian and west of Hwy 79. Moving to S/W slowly
Update…this cell now has a flash flood warning!
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NWS San Diego is reporting that Lake Cuyamaca in Eastern San Diego County accumulated 2.13 inches of rain this afternoon. At least down here the storms are very wet.
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Decent storm cells rolling through the inland empire this hour.
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Let’s add a mid summer grass crop to make things even more interesting, I suppose.
Discussion… as I had predicted before the season began, the monsoon high pressure system has been stronger and earlier than forecasted. Over the next 2 weeks there should be more chances of widespread monsoonal moisture.
The precipitation received across Southern Operations area should be sufficient for a small grass crop to develop, but insufficient enough to stall fire season due to the extremely dry bulky fuels and long days. Any grass crop should cure very quickly in the intense sunshine and heatwaves that follow. This should provide additional fuel for large fire activity rather than reducing the risk of large wildfire.
48 hr precipitation analysis
About mid August we should begin to transition the monsoon high pressure system over Nevada to stronger high pressure over California, cutting off the monsoonal moisture. This is evident at the end of the GFS model runs, which shows a transition from the dominant subtropical high pressure system to the NE pacific ridge.] This transition would begin about two weeks early.
This drying can already be seen in the CPC 10-14 climate outlook, showing drier and warmer weather as the transition may begin.
This would potentially allow for much warmer and drier weather in the middle of August as the center of the ridge oscillates over CA heading into September. The intense strength of the upper level high pressure system this year could mean that we see more intense heatwaves, similar to the September 6th heatwave of last year where Woodland Hills reached 121 degrees… if not something potentially even more impactful.
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Flash flood watch in effect for the Central and southern sierra.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hnx&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch
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BDF getting hit pretty good with lightning around Big Bear
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Assuming moisture with that?