As was posted in North Ops weather last night, here we are 24 hours later for this giga-heatwave. Even if the GFS is exaggerating some… woah. The ECMWF is in agreement for this heat wave.
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What kind of temps would you expect if this thing plays out?
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Are those the temps we can expect for the potential heat event 7/7 or hotter?
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One thing that his been different with the heat this year has been the thermal belts have not remained really warm at night. This may change with this scenario if it plays out. I really believe that has become a large factor in both priming the fuels and in fires resistance to control. We have not been seeing the fires slow down at night. This long termed and intense heat could well produce very warm overnight temps and low RH’s in the thermal belts.
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LaCo Fire Weather: Live Fuel Moisture:
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@anvilhead you mentioned increasing mid-level moisture impacting Washburn Fire tomorrow. Any thoughts on how this will affect timing of the smoke/inversion lifting out? I don’t really have the lingo to describe it, but I’d really like to have a better handle on how extended periods of high-pressure relate to decreased fire behavior like we saw on Dixie in last week of July 2021, and how things change as weather systems move through over the course of a season.
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The high pressure system isn’t centered over us so it will mix out daily with the delta breeze. High pressure will weaken slightly through the end of the week so the delta breeze should occur sooner next couple of days. The moisture isn’t deep enough to be connected to the low level smoke plume so the fire will have to punch through the inversion first before reaching the elevated moisture to influence fire behavior. No organized disturbances, but later in the week as the ridge breaks down the onshore flow really picks up and that could really increase fire behavior.
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Wondering if the convection triggers will be enough to trigger some enhanced column development when combined with onshore flow and orographic lift. Might set up an convergence zone near the fire???
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Maybe what?
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Maybe got some rain. The graphic shows doppler radar reflections of hopefully moisture in the air.
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