Maybe a CNF/SDU thread
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Roger roger. Fixed.
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3:00 pm Wed Aug 16 lightning detections in LPNF, Salinas River Valley, the Diablo Range, and bursts in Stanislaus NF.
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6:30 pm PT Wed Aug 16 lightning detections sporadic, but fairly steady between Bakersfield and Tehachapi. Not a lot of precip to go with it so far.
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Downpour of rain in Tehachapi for roughly 20min. Shows more rain coming in. Lightning and thunder as well.
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The cells have been on the move. Sounds like the pilots are getting tossed around a bit.
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Late afternoon thunderstorms make for great looking sunsets. From my house in Sonora looking NW. No rain or lightning local but plenty of wind. Went from 102 to 88 at the house.
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Hilary has developed an inner core this evening and is in the process of rapid intensification. The SHIPS-RI index that expresses the probability of rapid intensification is near 100%. The maximum intensity of the storm is important, because it will take longer to ‘spin down’ the lower the pressure becomes.
As the storm approaches Baja, it is going to evolve into a very volatile situation for the desert mountains and valleys, especially the Coachella and Imperial valleys. As the hurricane pushes it’s right front quadrant into the very warm waters of the Gulf of California, the hurricane will be up against air flowing from a different direction from the cut off low pressure system off of the West coast. This could set up a ‘deformation zone’ (info) that leads to tremendous rainfall amounts.
The probability of the storm impacting Southern California is increasing, and will likely climb to certainty if the storm rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane.
Satellite data: 1 minute floater (refresh anytime for present image)
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Flood Watch just issued for an extremely large area of SoCal due to approaching Hilary…in effect Saturday morning-Monday evening
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As for now we will leave existing discussion of Hilary in place, but let’s carry event specific discussion here
Hillary Discussion
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It was…Wasco.
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Rain and lightning in Mariposa
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Same for Twain Harte
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Lightning in the Central Sierra is worrisome. Obviously Fresno and Tulare have had their fill of fires the last few years. But in the mid range altitudes of MMU and TCU between 1500 and 5000 feet initial attack and larger fires have been relatively low compared to past years. There are thousands of acres of dead stands of timber due to bark beetle. Fortunately, due to lack of fires, there has been a lot of logging and burning, lessening risk. But a hold over fire, in the right spot could be catastrophic once the weather warms up and drys out.
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I’m not sure a fire will hold over my family said atleast half an inch in mmu
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