South Ops Weather-2023

when would this happen if it gets close enough.

also, the amount of weather related info i have learned from this site is immense. thank you anvilhead and others that provide their insight.

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This would occur around the 22nd-24th. The tropical cyclone is in the formation stages near Panama and has a high chance of development (70%) over the next 7 days. Models have been consistent about bringing the storm north.

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Thank you for keeping us updated on this.

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We should never take the GFS word for anything at 228 hours, but here is an example of how a legit hurricane or tropical storm could cause havoc if it were to move into the Imperial valley. It would cause a downslope warming effect west of the mountains, and the mid level circulation would drive downslope winds and the evaporation process could further increase winds west of the mountains.

It is difficult to get a legit storm at that location, but perhaps becoming easier with time as the magnetic properties of the earth change.

Also add a note: since the GFS is a lower resolution model, and it has very little to no experience with this situation it doesn’t capture the warming and wind extent.

Again: I am not suggesting this is going to happen, because Kay was way easier to forecast last year. This is just a crazy scenario for entertainment purposes only.

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Magnetic properties of the earth affect weather? How so?

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Feels like your mention of magnetism is much much more profound than most Humans realize. Also, cant help but think that cosmic movements & happenings (on timescales that occur beyond humans time on the planet) are pulling the strings on earths Wx. Hard to forecast/translate cosmic & galactic scale impacts because they are many orders of magnitude beyond us down here at the planetary scale. Sound’s like Wx woo-woo but i’m beginning to think its true…

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The ocean heat transfer process changes as the earths magnetic field continues to weaken, and the weaker poles are broader, they are also moving 50 miles a year. This changes the angles of the naturally occurring oscillations

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These are moving west, putting out lightning, and are fairly dry. Moving towards shaver lake.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ327&warncounty=CAC019&firewxzone=CAZ593&local_place1=28%20Miles%20ENE%20Auberry%20CA&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=37.1617&lon=-118.9977

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Lightning has arrived

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Are the strikes hittin south and central sierras dry or wet?

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It’s Rockin and Rollin in shaver and Huntington lake area right now!

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Radar shows precipitation but would be curious of what’ it looks like on the ground

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Enough to wet the wind shield, I’m sitting between auberry and shaver.

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A nice wetting rain that the Clarkia in the Meadow were going to enjoy.

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We should continue to monitor a developing tropical cyclone in the eastern pacific, as the models have continued to shift the path closer to Baja, and potentially phasing with a cut off low pressure system. The shift to the right on the GEFS makes the control run less of an outlier. The GFS has shown over the last 6 runs a tropical cyclone incursion into South Ops.

The developing tropical cyclone has a very large size, perhaps bigger in diameter than Hurricane Kay of last year. The general philosophy is that a large and major hurricane could develop and move north off of the Baja coast.

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With that chance of it moving into Baja, what type of weather change are we going to see in So Cal? Are we going to get monsoonal and humidity with T Storms? Thank you for the information!!

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There will be a chance for clouds, higher humidity, and widespread wetting rains. It is too early to say if there will be a direct impact from the circulation itself.

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Here we go again.

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