I was just looking at Weather West - California weather and climate perspectives and there wasn’t a mention of this heat wave. Is this looking to be possible/probable?
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Landfalling kelvin wave in the NW will increase troughing ahead of it and it will be forced downstream into the eastern Great Basin. This will lead to enhanced subsidence behind that trough in early June, in conjunction with the seasonal amplification of the subtropical high pressure system.
GFS shows it with run to run consistency but not going to use it until under 300 hours.
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This should kick off fire season in heavier fuels below 5000’. The GFS develops a Rex Block off of the west coast and this could favor much above temperatures the rest of June if it stays in place, as the ridge goes through its amplification cycles. Subsidence from the kelvin blob in the North Pacific and subsidence over Mexico from a developing La Nina means less moisture over the desert SW this monsoon season.
It is better to look at the seasons as becoming compressed into more amplified (energetic) episodes with less individual events. This is due to the nature of the heat transfer process from the ocean to the poles, geomagnetism, and some human activity.
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Predicted that one on the nose
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Spot on assessment!
With the new build-up of heat in the north pacific Basin, what does the rest of the summer season look like?
Will that heat get below Pt Conception and the SoCal Bight?
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In the northern latitudes warmer than average SST can be a sign of subsidence in the atmosphere, ala high pressure. Ahead of the warm water there is increased troughing which you can see occurring in the Pacific NW, but after it moves far enough south and east there should be enhanced marine heat wave activity. I would expect coastal areas to have much higher than average temperatures starting around the solstice. Subsidence from developing La Nina should mean a suppressed subtropical jet stream with less of a low level moisture component. I think the theme this year could be: marine heatwaves, subsequently enhanced heatwaves inland due to less of a cooling component from the ocean, chaotic monsoon.
Understanding the ‘times’ we are in now there is most likely going to be a lightning event of epic proportions in August/September across the west into Canada, I do not think any of this can be changed at this point.
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Thank you sir!
Your knowledge is vast only surpassed by your humility in sharing that knowledge. Your explanation are easy to understand, make sense , and to the point.
It is much appreciated!
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Just curious are you a self taught “weatherogist” or did you get your degree in meteorology? Your skills are 2nd to none and what is scary I actually understand a lot of what your saying. Always looking forward to your comments… And like Ehoss said, “It is much appreciated” !!
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Thank you for your kind words. I am self taught, in reality I grew up reading NWS scientific forecast discussions and watching the weather channel since I was 5 years old so
I would credit them as my teachers. I think that a lot of my interest in weather and all the other things, it’s my natal chart… so we can give credit to whatever creature decided that for me. I have not gone down the 100k $ degree route yet. I have been under the philosophy right now of just ‘wait it out’ because lots of things are going to occur during the next few years, so it is better for me to just wait for the reset to finish and survive it. Next step is getting out of my comfort zone and doing videos. I don’t want to make this about me, but I have always intended to help people vs make money off of people doing this.
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Ditto to the gratitude for you Anvil! Now if we can just get you to work in California to contribute to daily forecasting for our area??? Hehe
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Hard YES on following more content from you if/when it happens. p.s. try to stay out from behind a paywall if you can help it… \m/
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ImpactMap.pdf (251.5 KB)
I haven’t seen this anywhere else. Has anyone seen or heard anything about the potential?
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California Weather Watch talks about it in his briefing this morning.
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Also south ops mentions the possibility of isolated thunderstorms in their morning brief, with today likely being the high day.
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Also follow Jason D Farhang on X. He has had this in his sights for almost a week. He is MET in LA area Scroll through the numerous post from this week laying this all out.
@jason61987
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