A couple of line items… tonight a shortwave rotating around the inverted trough over Baja will lead to elevated thunderstorm potential with isolated dry lightning potential.
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94E is forecasted to move generally north towards Baja, although there is quite a bit of spread in modeling regarding intensity and track, if the circulation or larger wave envelope gets close enough to Southern California we could see downslope warming/winds.
Also, I would like to add images but the site is currently not letting me.
Los Angeles, CA has a graphic up that I cannot upload due to the site issue. Focus seems to be just west of the Sierra’s but could be migrating storms over the Sierra.
0400 West side along the I-5 corridor is seeing a mix of wet and dry lightning strikes with the central Sierra front county (Tulare and Kern) seeing a few mainly dry strikes.
Yes, it is most likely not going to affect us much despite currently undergoing rapid intensification and moving generally north… unless model runs change, but I have pointed out the last few years that the storm that moves north over the SW is the peak of the monsoon trough and it carves out a lane over the Great Basin for inside slider season to begin. So we can probably expect the first inside tracking trough 10 days after it moves through the SW.
Anvil … What’s it look like lightning wise north and south today? NWS still predicting lightning this afternoon, but I’m not seeing any buildup/moisture yet.
Will be surface based thunderstorms, mostly. So expect a mix of wet storms and dry. Will require the atmosphere to reach its convective temperatures this afternoon for them to initiate.
Subsidence behind the inverted trough in north ops will likely suppress thunderstorms.
Very much seems like we are going to run this back a little over a month later. After anomalous troughing over the West coast around the 10th-13th we should see a return to above normal temperatures over much of the West as a tropical cyclone approaches the eastern seaboard during the middle of the month.
Still cannot upload images so will just provide a general text update… Keep an eye on the time period of September 15th-22nd. Future Gabriel could be approaching the east coast at the same time a surface cold front moves into the Western plains. This is in conjunction with a possible much larger hurricane developing in the eastern pacific and moving north. This could set up a big time heatwave across the west. The European model seems very adamant about bringing some historic weather, although it is too far out to pin down right now. Background context supports extra vigilance.
