Red Flag Warning (RFW) just issued for the Western San Gabriel and Santa Susana Mountains, along with some Ventura County Valleys, for the upcoming Santa Ana wind event. RH is forecasted to drop as low as 5 to 10% on Wednesday, and winds 15 to 30 MPH with gusts from 35 to 45 MPH.
However, down in the valleys and foothills, the grass is starting to green up from the storm two weeks ago.
Fire Weather Snoopers:
With today’s RFW, on pace to be back to critical area wide after one more Santa Ana wind event. Hurricane in the Atlantic plus the PNA positive phase continues subsidence over the west, so persistent hot weather with the ridge driving the offshore flow rather than troughing in the Great Basin. As Hurricane Melissa ejects into the North Atlantic it will help destabilize the artic air mass and in conjunction with a trend towards a stronger NAO negative we could see increased cold air intrusions into the eastern US and middle of the country that bring stronger Santa Ana winds in mid to late November.
Its hard right now (given global Wx, Tectonic activity & Sun shenanigans) to not wonder how the forcing from 3IAtlas, Lemon & Swan must be having some effect on all we can/cant see and feel right now. Lots going on is an understatement!!
But wait, there’s more!
Great weather in the Motherlode last couple of days. Yesterday it was 82 in Angles Camp. Today at my house in Sonora 75 with RH 39 wind 5 out of the south. No dew the last two morning at the casa.
Time to burn or cover those piles with the up coming weather systems. See some good size burns going on around the county today. Feds had a couple last week look like they were doing a good job. The are doing a good size mastication fuel break Dragoon Gulch walking trail. Much needed and hopefully going below my house. Save me a hell of a lot of cutting, thinning and burning. This is good for the home owners in the SRA and LRA( Sonora City and Tuol County residents).
Hope everyone has a great week you deserve it!
Have a great pic of the Aurora Borealis would like to share taken tonite from Sonora. We use to be able to post pics, what has changed on this site? I have not been able to post pics for around 6 plus months.
We even had a look in East Texas. The problem with that is the Sun emitting so much radiation toward Earth to create the effect is not good on living things nor electronic ones either.
How did we make it through mid November with just weak Santa Ana’s so far this fall? Well done other nature, bring the rain. See you in 2026, large fire threat (except for the Owens Valley ).
Time to speedrun winter wet season
Given whats currently unfolding AND what is yet to come from our solar & galactic climatology i think it’s a safe bet to speculate that earth Wx is likely to keep serving up increasingly gnarly curveballs!
And - connected to those bigger picture things just mentioned - theres all the forcing from earths core & poles doing their cyclical crazy behavior that is not helping..
#imworriedforus
40 days and 40 nights
40/40.. If we’re lucky.
Some like Hapgood (Einstein too), Velicovsky Et al say perhaps only 6 -7 days for “things” to re-set, but such talk not meant for this thread…
This aged well within 24 hours. Good ol’ owens valley.
Ha…typical for Owens Valley…Valley burns good in the winter when everything browns out on Valley floor. Depending on Snow, Rain and Wind the rest can burn anytime of the year. Fires burning in Long Valley it’s higher neighbor just up the Sherwin Grade to the North.
Active pattern on tap for the next week. Persistence in the pattern has remained intact.. no big ridges and no big offshore wind events across the entire state.
Precip totals for NOPS were impressive with the current AR. A beneficial AR without flooding or wind damage.
As the storm moves south today it will drop a good shot of precip across SOPS. The alignment and track will really favor LA and SBC. The Transverse Range will be the big winner with the San Gabriel’s being a close second.
Thresholds for debris flows are still in the first year so those could easily be met. The greater concern would be the total precip causing flash flooding or general run off issues. This was evident in the Line Fire scar two months ago.
The debris basins should do their job and the work the crews have done to prep them will be evident.
Looking beyond the storm door looks to remain open and active.
This is an interesting pattern with the models showing a series of storms( some strong) continuing. Might set some November precip records..
Sierra got some pile burning in near Huntington yesterday.
