OK here’s a better answer… discussed at about 1:10 in today’s briefing video:
2 Likes
The wind pushed it off the escarpment.
http://www.alertwildfire.org/shastamodoc/index.html?camera=Axis-ShafferMtn&v=fd40730
2 Likes
Yes sir. Had a good view of it as I passed by
2 Likes
Looking at the 5:20 pm IR, the spot fire near Bogard ran about 120 acres this afternoon, had 2 three acre spots about 1/4 mile in front of it, was about 3/4 mile from Bogard Rest Area. Looking closer at the IR last night, I noticed the spot that ran 30 acres yesterday (9/5) was actually mapped on the 9/4 NIROPS flight, so it must’ve escaped after they worked it earlier on 9/5 - it wasn’t a new spot yesterday afternoon.
The fire in Lassen Park, within the 2012 Reading Fire area (light blue) looks like it made a run which merged with a new firing operation which is using the Pacific Crest Trail along with dozer lines to try to check the fire’s northward spread. The area along the north side of West Prospect Peak which was fired unsuccessfully last week (too green to carry well) looks like it has cooled off, don’t really see much heat there at all.
The SE end of the fire looks like it ran another 8,000 acres from where it was mapped last night. 2021 Beckwourth Fire is light blue, as is (smaller) 2021 Dotta Fire.
As of 5:30 pm, fire was still coming off Escarpment in fingers.
Shout out to @tornadokat for making the dozerline and hand line KML overlays, saving me about 250 mouse clicks!
19 Likes
@pyrogeography
You’re welcome! Do you need hand lines broken out by themselves? Currently I do dozer lines because people seemed specifically interested in those, and then all types of lines lumped together:
‘Completed Burnout’
‘Completed Dozer Line’
‘Completed Fuel Break’
‘Completed Hand Line’
‘Completed Mixed Construction Line’
‘Completed Plow Line’
‘Completed Road as Line’
2 Likes
My KML files for 20210907 added to my ever growing last post here:
1 Like
I think the way you are doing it works well. I like to show dozer line on maps, and having the rest of the line types as a KML is handy for interp in Google Earth to figure out what is going on.
2 Likes
About a week ago someone posted a tool enabling one to “tour” the forest/landscape post Dixie(Zuula??). My sister is quite fearful of returning to her cabin in Lake Almanor because of the loss of surrounding areas that she and her husband have loved for so many years. I thought it would help soften the shock. In particular I remember Chester, Canyon Dam and Warner Valley. I was wondering if there was anything for Big Springs/Yellow Creek Area? Our parents ashes are near there. Thanks in advance.
And of course thank you for all your hard and brave work! This forum has been most helpful to me throughout the years having myself been affected by several fires. BEU Asst Chief Matteson and y’all taught me most everything I know.
2 Likes
I discovered they’ve been tagging data as Contained Line. For the Dixie Fire they seem to have it as a separate entry on top of what is often an existing entry for some sort of Completed Line, but not always. I’ll be adding a separate KML for this as it seems like useful data to break out.
Example. Blue is Completed Line, Black is Contained Line:
I have added it to today’s previous KML’s:
1 Like
It will take time for validation but it looks as though MS. Dixie broke another rule. It appears as though there is a spot now just east of Manzanita Lake near the LNP entrance +/- . That will put it on the Shasta county side and the west side of the crest. Nightly diurnals have significant effects on that west aspect… specifically the night time settling.
Speculation based on IR and to be validated. It’s is too late in the game to call anything a game changer at this point, but…
4 Likes
Oh damn! Trust me when i say you/we dont want fire running down & thru the manzanita chutes…
2 Likes
When FIRIS flew it about 18:15, they showed it still on east side of Raker Peak, about 5 miles from Manzanita Lake, but it had pushed about 6,000 acres today, they said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were long-range spots. CalTopo shows winds going the other direction, though.
4 Likes
You really gotta watch out using MODIS or VIIRS on days with big runs. heat in the column devils them heavy. Think it’d be good practice on this site to seek confirmation from a second source before anyone posts anything based soley on intel from those satellites beyond initial attack or first location of something remote. The web is full of false alarms from this stuff, think we can do better.
13 Likes
At least 2 of those Modis hits are less than 50% confidence and even 100% you need to take with a grain of salt.
3 Likes
I’d say not just here, but I’m noticing a LOT more embedded map portals on mainstream media sites and arcgis official evac maps with the modis/viirs data layer on, both places where a LOT of civilan eyes are looking and not realizing the context of what is being seen.
Sometimes modis/viirs is spot on exact, and I think the first few days of Dixie and some others they were. People correlate that luck (no leaning column, near perfect alignment with sensors, etc) with continuous 100% accuracy.
4 Likes
I think it is good policy to seek out confirmation before posting anything based only on Modis or VIIRS unless it doesn’t matter if it’s off a mile or two. For example, MODIS is handy after a lightning bust to see there are 4 fires taking off in the Ishi Wilderness or something. But on a going fire, I think it’s good policy not to use them to announce a fire has crossed a road, is into a neighborhood, or has passed some other sort of trigger point.
I got a lot of panicked inquiries when fire looked like it was over Highway 36 and headed to Lake Almanor Peninsula. And the MODIS showed fire all over Meyers and Christmas Valley, I believe. Even traditional night IR can be off and requires some interp. The maps I posted of Christmas Valley last week showed fire into the neighborhoods on 3 different flights when there was none. Everything requires a skeptical eye, and perhaps a call to a friend on the ground if you are going to hang your hat on it.
13 Likes
My KML files for 20210908:
Any word on how old station is looking???
Evacuation order issued by the sheriff for Old Station about 5 minutes ago.
3 Likes